Derby Top 10 (March 12th)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Circular Quay (new)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Ketchikan (new)
6. Notional (5)
7. Nobiz Like Showbiz (6)
8. Scat Daddy (7)
9. Law Breaker (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)
A reorganization is certainly necessary. There will always be prep races that clearly separate the wheat from the chaff and I think we saw them this weekend. Liquidity was a huge disappointment, he has actually been dropped from my top 10 entirely. I still think he is a good horse and he has remained on my radar but he really isn't all I thought he was. I would be very surprised if he managed to capture the Derby even if he rebounds. He is just not able to handle anything other than a slow pace. Circular Quay on the other hand has me firmly back in his corner. I was in love with this horse as a 2yo but I had not to this point been convinced that he runs his best races around two turns. This race won me over and Circular Quay is officially the first horse that I've put back in my top 10 after dropping him. He was ranked as high as 4th until the Risen Star when I dropped him, he now comes in ahead of all but Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter. The reason for that is specific. The Louisiana Derby clearly showed that he can rally strongly and finish well going two turns in a fast time. He was not quite as impressive as Great Hunter but I like his class and experience more than Ravel's precocity. Circular Quay will have a tough time winning the Derby because of traffic and such but he showed his class once again and I have to say one of the things that I've enjoyed the most this season has been seeing how well the BC Juvenile runners have done. Stormello, King of The Roxy, Scat Daddy, Great Hunter and now Circular Quay have come back and re-established themselves as 3yo's. It's nice to see them training on and it does make me take another look at Street Sense, but I'll still hold off on him until he runs next week. He is now the top horse on my radar list and has the chance to break into the top 10 with a good showing in the TB Derby. I thought Birdbirdistheword looked pretty poor and I've dropped him entirely. He just isn't anywhere near fast enough to compete. Ketchikan on the other hand was spectacular and once again recorded a respectable Beyer of 98. He got a terrible ride and either was too rank for the rider to hold or the rider simply had a lapse in judgement. He stuck on gamely as long as he could but was just outclassed. This horse will win himself a stakes race and it could be soon. Despite his inexperience he is one of the fastest 3yo's out there right now. Zanjero on the other hand isn't very fast, he's just a solid underneath type of horse. That worked okay for Steppenwolfer but I don't see this horse as winner. Summer Doldrums goes neither up nor down. He has never been on my top 10 list because I was skeptical of his 106 Beyer figure that came out of nowhere. He regressed this time and really looked poor despite being slightly disadvantaged by the ride he got., but we know he is capable of big races on occasion so he stays on the radar. Cowtown Cat really is not fast enough to compete with the top 3yo's around two turns.
On the radar: Street Sense, Hard Spun, Twilight Meteor, Sam P, Liquidity (3), Zanjero, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg
You can now view the entire Derby Top 10 archive by clicking on the header in the sidebar that says "Kentucky Derby Top 10 (date)".
Future Wager Pool #2 recap
Based on my analysis from a few days ago I would not have made any plays in the Derby Future bet Pool #2. None of the prices really struck my fancy aside from the one on Summer Doldrums, but he ran much worse than I could have expected. In the Oaks pool I decided to take the plunge with Appealing Zophie despite her loss. It was just a disastrous race for her and I think she can bounce back. She could easily come back well in a race like the Fantasy or the Ashland and right on track. There was nothing else of note that I would have suggested taking.
Derby Pool #2
No plays
Oaks Pool #2
Appealing Zophie 27/1
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2 comments:
Couldn't agree with you more about Ketchikan. He really looked terrific - and he did gallop out past Circular Quay. I don't know if they need a jock change or just a more seasoned colt, but if he can sit back just a tiny bit, he looks like a serious contender. I haven't heard anything, but I assume he is headed for the Arkansas derby - and I will definately be hoping that he continues to improve.
i didn't get to the races this weekend but i agree with your pointing out the runners coming out of the BC juvenile/ wouldn't it be ironic if street sense, the actual winner of the BC juvenile, would come out and run poorly in his next two preps?/i heard that ketchikan ran well and green in defeat so it will be interesting to see his progress/ i am not on board with him yet/ i was glad to see adore the gold is still on KC's top 10/ he was another colt that i feel ran well in defeat/ i was wondering if KC is considering putting chelokee on the radar and also possibly rags to riches?/ / summer doldrums was my biggest disappointment this weekend / i think the pace didn't set up for him but he really had no big excuse/ zanjero took a drop for me and it is hard to keep supporting him at this point/ he is the type that could round out the bottom of the trifecta on derby day/ i was wondering what Kennedy's Corridor thought the chances are that pletcher would run rags to riches in the ky derby?/ i was wondering what Kennedy's Corridor thought about the odds on the field after the results of the futures pool# 2// since i need to add more colts to my rtr stable this week, i was wondering what KC might suggest as new posssibilites as the result of the weekend races these past 2 weekends/ also, although i did not and do not have hardspun, i am not through thinking he could very well rebound/ /chicago gerry
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