Stateside Preview

Aventura
None of these horses really look like Derby winners but this is a very good race nonetheless. I could possibly see the winner of this race being pointed towards the Lexington as a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. But this race is ungraded and not a single one of the entrants has a penny of graded stakes earnings to their names. This field is headed by a bunch of late bloomers and the very solid listed stakes horse Green Vegas. Green Vegas will actually be the first or second choice in this race and he has a great shot. At the start of the year he looked as if he could step up and be a real contender, but things haven't worked out for him. Still he is the classiest horse in the race and the abundance of speed on paper suggests that the pace will be right up his alley. I'm not going to use him on top just because I think this is the ideal spot for an up and comer to have a breakout performance, but failing that he is the best candidate. As I mentioned before there is a ton of speed on paper, however many of the entrant are very inexperienced. In situations like this it is not always detrimental to be a speed horse because often the speed of the speed will carry the day. A good number of maidens are won on the front end, it doesn't mean the winner is a speed horse. It could mean that the winner was simply way better than the horses he was facing. Street Magician figures to be the top choice off his huge maiden win where he also got a gaudy figure. He has speed but I really think his connection will be looking to secure the garden spot in this race. I see the speed of the speed being Blue Bullet. This Jerkens pupil actually beat Street Magician in his debut and what I like most about him is that in both of his races he was driven to the front and battled through tough fractions then had tons left in the lane as all the other speed horses faded badly. He's bred to go longer and he's been working better than he ever has. At 6/1 on the morning line he's my choice to take this group wire to wire. In fact I see it setting up just about like his debut did. With Street Magician tracking the speed on the outside then taking a run at the leader but being repulsed then passed late by Green Vegas who is making up ground but cant get to the winner.

1)Blue Bullet
2)Green Vegas
3)Street Magician

Tokyo City
I only like this race because its a another chance to see Neko Bay and I guess you might call this his coming out party. If he loses if wont be such a party but I don't think there is a very good chance of defeat. He has always looked very good and as a 3yo he showed great guts, bravery and a nice turn of foot. His only career loss was due to a terrible break and he did tend to drop out of the back of races early but in his reappearance he looked much more attentive. He was close enough to the early gallop and he dealt with his competition easily enough. With the top jockey's away I think getting Gryder was a nice touch. There is lone speed in this race (Yes He's A Pistol) but Gryder is very good a sensing the pace and I like him on stalkers. Neko Bay is more workmanlike so it's hard to tell how good he may be. I think he could be a G-2 type of horse but you never know he could actually be better than even that. In any case he should be too good for these.

1)Neko Bay

Florida Derby
This is the kind of race where I'll take a stand with a few horses but it wouldn't be shocking to see all three of them out of the frame because of the 9 entrants I really only see Boogie Boggs and Johannesburg Star as horses without a chance. I'm also going to oppose Birdbirdistheword because of his post. He could do it and I do respect him but you cant take them all. I do not think that this race is going to produce many horses with legitimate chances to win the Derby. They just don't appear fast enough to deal with the top tier. They are solid and could hit the frame but unless one horse really breakout's out I don't think the Derby winner is running here. The key in this race is the pace. We all know that Stormello is going to the front, I expect that Johannesburg Star will as well. His best races have come on the front end and last time he had no chance to get the front after his bad break. He had a quick and short this week and I think he's going to the front. Adore The Gold is the wild card because I think Stormello can take all that Johannesburg Star can throw at him with three legs. In order to see Stormello passed in this race I think Adore the Gold will have to press him more than he did or even flat outrun him early and dictate things himself. He is the only horse with the capability to do that and I actually think he will try. Stormello is not an easy horse to pass, the earlier you do it the better. He has the speed to hold his position and if there is one horse that I'd really fear a breakout performance from its him. He ran a good race last out and was quite disadvantaged by the post and his break. None of the other horses in here are set to improve in a big way. We sort of know what Scat Daddy, Notional and Stormello are going to give. Chelokee could breakout but I think Adore the Gold is the best candidate. He has already flashed brilliance. Chelokee is a horse I'm actually opposing. I don't like his lack of consistency. He was a monster in his last but in his two prior races he didn't do much of anything. Notional is who I'm going to use on top. I think he has the best blend of all the right tools. He's versatile, handy, brave and more than good enough to win. He is still, by the way, undefeated on conventional dirt and while he seems to lack overall speed I think his figs may be a little slower than they should be. I don't think the Risen Star was as slow as the numbers suggest. I think Imawildandcrazyguy has a good shot of getting a piece. I have a soft spot for Scat Daddy but he's not my choice here. I have long theorized that this horse wants to be outside of the others, that was one of my main reasons for taking him last out. In this spot he looks like he'll be right in the fray. He's got class so he should hit the board. It pains me to drop them because this race could easily be Stormello, Chelokee and Imawildandcrazyguy running 1-2-3 but you cant take them all.

1)Notional
2)Adore The Gold
3)Scat Daddy