Circular Reasoning

"Trainer Todd Pletcher will call an audible when entries are taken Wednesday morning at Aqueduct in New York for the Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial on Saturday, he said Tuesday night. Louisiana Derby winner Circular Quay, who had been expected to run in the Wood, instead will bypass that race and train up to the May 5 Kentucky Derby"

The Derby trail is fraught with twists and turns but the quote from the Daily Racing Form above is the biggest twist yet in my mind. Circular Quay looked primed for a big effort in the Wood Memorial but now he's going straight to the Derby. So what does this do for his Derby chances?

Kennedy's Corridor has long thought well of Circular Quay. He was highlighted last July as the most likely BC Juvenile winner. That didn't quite work out but he has justified the high opinions that I and others have for him. As a Derby horse I have not been as optimistic about his chances, he is a good closer but he's still a closer. He is currently the 5th ranked horse in the Derby Top 10 featured at this site. The highest ranking he has attained was 3rd overall, but those days are over now. He may not get kicked out of the top 10 but he is certainly no longer a viable candidate to win the race.

Perhaps that seems harsh, after all Pletcher is the trainer not me. But I think there is a real difference between going for the best plan and going for a plan that is now just the best option remaining. People will point to Barbaro and his layoff but the difference there is first of all 5 weeks compared to 8 weeks but also Matz laid this plan out for Barbaro from the beginning. Pletcher's plan for Circular Quay was to run in the Wood and the reason he is skipping it now is because his horse apparently wont hold up to running in both the Wood and the Derby. That is a bad sign. All indications are that Circular Quay is a very kind horse and has no aggression at all. Pletcher himself described him as "not a really forward, aggressive-training horse". Now tell me this, how does he feel his horse is going to be fit for the Derby off of works when he isn't a great work horse?

I think the horse may have a slight issue that has jeopardized his entrance in the Wood and Pletcher has had to pick from the options left available. I don't believe that if he were honest he'd say that this is the ideal schedule for this horse. In fact I know that because they laid out the ideal schedule for him earlier in the year and that schedule included the Wood Memorial.

Circular Quay could still run in the top half of the Derby field but I would be shocked if he managed to win. I believe the Derby dream for him, is over.