Weekend Preview

This weekend preview comes to you a bit early, that's because I'm going to be away from computers of any kind for the whole weekend. It kind of pained me when I realized that I had booked a vacation during this pivotal week. Not only do we have key Triple Crown preps but also the Keeneland Spring Meet is opening. The Spring Meet is my second favorite meet of the year, behind only Saratoga. But alas I'll have to miss the first few days. Even now I'm writing this away from my home base. There is however much more to life than horse racing and I hope everyone who reads this has a fabulous holiday. If you can pry yourselves away from your families to catch a little racing I hope all your bets are winning ones.

Transylvania
I'm quite interested in this race. I think basically all of the money will be split between Sedgefield and Marcavelly. Sedgefield is the now horse and is sure to be near even money if not lower, but I don't think that makes him the best horse in the race. I don't think he's a horse who knows where the line is. His only wins have come when he's completely outclassed his rivals and on a few occasions he made the lead in the stretch but gave it up. I don't think he's a winner. Marcavelly was scary good early on as a 2yo but it you like a gamble you might think that he would need a race or that his peers have caught up to him. I like a longer shot in this race, In Jest. I doubt anyone could name the last time a horse in John Sheppard's barn was favored and won at less than 2/1 first time out. Basically it doesn't happen. But it did with this horse and I have the feeling that this normally conservative trainer is placing him here because he really thinks he has a shot. Sheppard never seems to be stronger than at Keeneland and Saratoga. And just like with his precocious filly Forever Together who the Forward Gal you have to take note when a cautious steeplechase trainer like this is campaigning a horse ambitiously. In Jest looked sensational in his debut, he was clearly in another world. He gets the positive jockey switch here and should be a hefty price.

1)In Jest
2)Sedgefield
3)Marcavelly

Carter Handicap
I can't wait to see the morning line on this race, I actually literally can't wait because it will likely come out tomorrow but I meant also in the figurative sense. I think there are so many legitimate contenders in this race that the public is a guaranteed to overlook one of them. Sprints begin and end with speed and the fastest horse in this race is Keyed Entry. He won't get an easy lead but he will be winging it on the front. Kazoo will offer mild pressure but it will be Diabolical who will be charged with keeping him honest. I think both Keyed Entry and Diabolical are better horses at 6f but that may not hurt them here. The Aqueduct main is fairly kind to speed and the weather may bring an off track which plays right into Keyed Entry's hands. Latent Heat is the prototype for the perfect 7f horse. He has speed but he settles well, he also runs a very good middle part of the race and his stamina is closer to a milers. This race and the Met Mile seem tailor made for him. But I wonder in this spot if he wont find Keyed Entry flat out too brilliant and fast for him to catch. That is what I expect anyway. I think the pace will be even enough for the Pletcher horse to shake his chasers in the lane. A horse like Silver Wagon is a bad gamble in my opinion just from a pace perspective. He has found new life with Dutrow and is very dangerous, but he rarely finds a race that sets up for him twice in a row. Ah Day is a horse I'd like to play in here, its a shame his competition looks too fast for him. Because he is one of those horses who seems to be cycling up and he could run a career best in here. The problem is that we don't know if a career best will be good enough. But then he is also the most likely to be a juicy price so I might be tempted to use him.

1)Keyed Entry
2)Ah Day
3)Latent Heat

Wood Memorial
This in my opinion is a terrible race to wager on because its all about 3 horses and those 3 horses are unlikely to be good prices. The real intrigue of this race, and the reason why I'm analysing it, is what effect it could have on the Derby picture. I think the only horses in this race with a hope of becoming legitimate Derby contenders are Nobiz Like Showbiz, Any Given Saturday and Summer Doldrums. Any Given Saturday is I think the best horse in the race, he is my #1 Derby choice right now and he looks like a classy animal from stem to stern. However I don't think it is necessary that he win this race and I don't really think he will. I have to be careful saying that because he could win it on class alone but his goal is simply to get enough earnings to get in the Derby. A second place finish does that without a question and even third may be enough. The other two by contrast have something to prove and their Derby hopes hinge on their performances here. Nobiz Like Showbiz has always flaunted talent but he looked all out of sorts mentally last time. All of the sudden he is being dismissed by pundits far and wide. Though the evidence against him could be all wiped with two things. A good professional performance and a fast final time. Those are the two things he's missing, he needs to prove that blinkers will prevent him from goofing off and that he is actually capable of getting under the line quickly. For a horse who has been as good as he has its quite astonishing to note that he has never recorded a 3 digit Beyer Speed Figure. Summer Doldrums is likely the best value in the race. There has been quite an ordeal over his Beyer revision of 106 to 94. Whatever you believe about the merits of his speed figures there are a few things you need to remember. His Whirlaway performance was spectacular, he ran in a very fast time and since he is the controlling speed in here he has a huge advantage. This horse is most definitely good enough to beat the others if he runs his A race and gets left alone. Flashstorm has speed but he isn't going to stick around long and with John "I can ride two horses at once" Velasquez on Any Given Saturday you can be sure that he'll spend most of his time looking at Nobiz. My prediction for this race is that Summer Doldrums will manage to give them the slip and that Nobiz wont get magically better. Any Given Saturday should split the pair and as long as he runs in the neighborhood of a 100+ Beyer he will be setup perfectly for the Derby.

1)Summer Doldrums

Santa Anita Derby
I would not rule out the possibility of a real longshot taking this race. Basically all of the focus will be on Liquidity and Sam P but both of those horses have holes. I do think Liquidity is the most likely winner of this race despite his poor performance last out. Even his last race, speed figure wise is nearly on par with best that everyone else has received outside of Sam P. The problem I think is that he likes to sit off a slow pace and he really didn't get it last time. I don't see much pace in here at all. Level Red will likely set the gallop but he's getting blinkers. Black Seventeen should also be right on the pace, but he is a doubtful stayer at best. I don't think a swift pace would suit his purposes. Liquidity should get the garden trip, but at the same time we have to remember that he hasn't won anything aside from a maiden. Finding horses that are better than him is a specialty of his. I personally don't know this race shouldn't be wide open. Speed figures can be deceiving and if you take away Sam P's last figure and just consider the two turn performances everyone comes out dead even. That is why I think anyone could win. Sam P looked fabulous in his last but he hasn't historically been a horse who has looked great twice in a row. He could hit the frame though as I think he has a lot of hidden class. My longshot for this race is Court the King. He did not receive very much respect in his first two races which he won. Then oddly enough he was very well backed in the El Camino Real Derby but finished a flattening 4th. His figures really aren't anything to speak of but he should be capable of improving to a level where he can be competitive. Hopefully his jockey, Valdivia, has learned the value of a patient ride. In his last race he broke well but found himself shuffled to last on the backside. He then launched a 4 wide move all the way around the far turn and got up with the leaders before flattening out in the lane. With a better ride this horse could have done much better and given his lack of experience I think improvement wont be too difficult to come by. His trainer John Sadler is one of those sneaky good trainers. He is far more shrewd than he gets credit for.

1)Court The King
2)Liquidity
3)Sam P

Apple Blossom
If you have read this space for any length of time you will note that India is something of a pet horse. I actually despised her as a 2yo and thought her untrustworthy as a 3yo. Until I saw her go two turns. She took to it like a duck to water and last fall I tabbed her as both a great pick to win the BC Distaff (which she didn't enter) and as a horse to watch in the division this year. This is the first stepping stone and if she's going to be a star you'd hope she'd show that here. It is definitely a tough race and her speed figure earned last time out does not inspire much confidence but then consider the fact that she has the co second best two turn speed figure in the entire field. She does her best running when attending the pace and she'll have the perfect target in this race in Take D'Tour. The Fawkes trainee is dangerous but much less so if she has someone tracking her in the early stages. She can be counted on to capitulate. We have to mention Round Pond of course but you're going to get even money for a horse who just ran the worst race of her life. Now odds are she will bounce back but an average race for her really isn't better than what the rest of the field can run. She is not the standout that the public is likely to make her. Another horse with a huge shot is Ermine. She's tough, she's got good tactical speed and perhaps like Sightseek she will appreciate getting out of California.

1)India
2)Round Pond
3)Ermine