Tactical Speed in the Derby

Much is made of the 10f Derby distance. The way some media people speak you'd think that staying 10f was some insurmountable task that only great horses can actually accomplish. Much of the hype over the supposed grueling distance actually serves to switch people's focus to runner that wouldn't normally get their attention. It's why people out a little money on dead beat horses like Anees, Atswhatimtalkingbout, Jazil, Noble Causeway, Dollar Bill, Saarland and Borrego. The logic is that at least they appeared like they could run an extra furlong in their last prep race. Many times they can run an extra furlong. But Derby success is much more closely related to speed than stamina. In fact looking for a horse who has the speed to be in front after 9f in the Derby has often been a key to success.

Here is a list of the last 10 horses who ran the fastest 9f in the Derby

Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Cat Thief
Fusaichi Pegasus
Congaree
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Closing Arguement
Barbaro

Overall record: 10-7-1-2

In all but 3 cases the horse who was in front at the 1/8th pole was also in front at the wire. Getting in front at the 1/8th pole is about tactical speed and has little to do with the distance of the race. You'll find that a deep closer who is 5 lengths back in the stretch of a 9f race will tend to also be 5 lengths back in a 10f race. Because the jockey's launch their bid based on how much ground they have left to run not on how much ground they've covered. The hope is that at longer distances the front runners will be more tired out and thus the late kick of the closer will have more effect. It rarely works as planned.

One of the keys I look for in a Derby horse is making sure they have the tactical speed to be in a prime position at the 1/8th pole. 23 of the last 26 Derby winners were either first or second at the 1/8th pole in one of their two final Derby preps. Here are the raw numbers since 1996.

Was either 1st or 2nd at the 1/8th pole in one of their final 2 preps: 136-11-8-8
Was not either 1st or 2nd at the 1/8th pole in one of their final 2 preps: 58-0-3-3

It is as the numbers suggest. Some of these late runners manage to close late and hit the frame, but not one of the 58 horses who lacked tactical speed were able to win the Derby and far more Derby placings went to the horses who could get themselves into a handy position. Even Giacomo managed to flaunt some tactical speed in a prep race, although he didn't use it in the Derby.

Speed is more important than stamina, that's why I'll always rank a horse like Hard Spun over a horse like Circular Quay. If they are of similar talent and class levels the horse who is in front has the advantage.