Derby Top 10 (Apr 23rd)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Scat Daddy (2)
3. Dominican (3)
4. Street Sense (4)
5. Nobiz Like Showbiz (5)
6. Hard Spun (6)
7. Curlin (7)
8. Circular Quay (8)
9. Great Hunter (9)
10. Cowtown Cat (10)
This is the last week for the Derby Top 10 so I guess you could say that these are the final standings. This top 10 doesn't actually represent who I would bet on Derby day. It merely represents who I think has the best chance of winning two weeks away from the Derby. I don't want to be pessimistic but it would not shock me to see one Derby hopeful injured or working poorly which might affect how I'd rank them, but I will stick with this ranking which is unchanged from last week. I don't think any horse from the Tesio or the Lexington will have an impact on the Derby. Any Given Saturday remains the top ranked horse and I think it's a fine time to be a fan of his. Although he does not fit the historical profile of a Derby winner I thnk he has a huge chance. The general populace is throwing him out so the price should be right but there have been many positive changes. Garrett Gomez was named the rider and he should give him a better trip from off the pace. Pletcher confirmed that the plan for Any Given Saturday is indeed to take him further back and make one run. He just drilled a bullet with Gomez aboard at Keeneland. He settled off his stablemate and ran him down in the lane. When I first looked at it I was slightly worried because it took Any Given Saturday a long time to get past his stablemate but whoever was riding Pleasant Strike (his workmate) really messed up because the horse took off on him and left Gomez with more work to do than he intended. For all who think this horse is tired look at the closing splits of this work. He went very fast late on. Scat Daddy was likely the most impressive worker of the weekend. Pletcher sent him out alone because he feared he would be too sharp. He may have been right because this was one of those works that was so smooth it almost appeared to be in slow motion. Yet he went 5f in 1:00 flat. Scat Daddy looks ready. As for the rest of this group I would be quite surprised if the winner was not among the 10 mentioned. I think Zanjero is the best horse who I don't have ranked at all but at best he looks like a horse who might plunk up for third or fourth. Next week I'll do a summary of the Top 10 and take a look at how much the ranking has changed since it started in November of 2006.
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comments, observations, and predictions: in regards to KC"S "derby top 10", i like AGS because he was brought along by plecther more traditionally than other derby contenders// i wonder if johnny v had his choice between AGS and circular quay? if, so, was it a difficult choice and what could have been the deciding factors ?// i wonder how many ordinary handicappers are in a fog less than two weeks before the derby about their picks? i say this in light of changes in beyers figures for some of the derby/run up stakes races, the pace factor in the poly track stakes races and going against the grain trainer decisions beginning last year// i have to ask, doesn't the average joe blow have a right to be a little uncertain as to what to do? // isn't it likely that handicappers will become skilled at handicapping poly tracks just as they have become skilled at handicapping grass and dirt races?// is there any solid evidence that poly-tracks are in fact safer than dirt tracks?// are there playing difference among the poly-tracks based on the fact that there is no standards on what material is being used for various synthetic tracks? // i predict horse racing in the u.s.a. will eventually result in thoroughbreds running laps in large swimming pools because it will be safer for them// wasn't it great to see in a time honored fashion a few horses such as street sense actually arrived early at churchill downs; the way it used to be// which colts will move up or regress as a result of coming off poly-track to the dirt track at churchill downs ?// what about the "it" factor?// the "it" factor is not just being fast/ a lot of colts are fast // it is not merely being gutty although that is a big part of it// the "it factor is where a colt demonstrates unbelievably acceleration when asked and most importantly has the confidence of a leader// he is not one who comes to the gate all lathered up like fly so free or who pretends to be a stud but quits when the going gets tough like holy bull// i am wondering if trip handicapper, for a least this year, might have an advantage over speed and pace handicapper in picking the eventual derby winner and those that will finish in the money// to the pro-filers out there i would predict, in the end you will be proven mostly right if you can make allowances for the "it" factor// chicago gerry
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