Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Random Comments

i was thinking a bit about Lawyer Ron and really don't know what to make of the high beyers // my experience tells me that when a horse unexpectedly does well there are those that want to dismiss the effort and make excuses why as to why the figures was wrong; ie. faulty timing etc.// i recall Andrew Beyers himself dismissing his own assessment of War Emblem in the Illinois Derby where in fact the Man was right in the first place//// my view is to question it but admit to the fact that, a seasoned horse like Lawyer Ron just might have had a great run and deserves a lot of credit for his effort

I don't get why the Beyer boys feel the need to normalize figures or adjust them after the fact. Horses occasionally run much faster than they normally do. Sometimes they just have freak out performances and that's what I think Lawyer Ron did. They might look like one-off performances at the time but you never know, perhaps in the future they'll earn more big figures. Lawyer Ron ran an extremely fast race, forget what figures he should have been able to run just look at what he did run. Personally I think Lawyer Ron's figure is too low at 116 but I'm not really into making figures. I'm into profiting from them. Time will tell how strong the form of the race turns out to be.

i see the latest NTRA poll took Better Talk Now out of the top 10 and brought English Channel into the top 10// i think if English Channel holds his form he could give anything the Euros bring over a good run for there money; it is likely they may bring their best anyway

The NTRA poll is a little pet peeve of mine. Every week they seem to have moves that don't make any sense at all. This week's gem is the flip flop in ranking order with English Channel and Invasor. Last week Invasor was #7 while EC was #6. This week they're reversed. I know the mechanics of how they ended up reversed but please explain to me how that makes any sense at all. Invasor is retired for crying out loud, how could he have done anything in this past week to move himself back above English Channel? If the NTRA feels the need to rank horses they should adopt a point system no matter how crude. No one looking at racing from the outside would give this weekly poll any credence, it changes too often for no good reason.

English Channel is only a BC prospect in my opinion because the race is at Monmouth. I don't think he can beat even the top American Turf horses going 12f on any other course. It's a tighter speed favoring strip. I don't necessarily see him as the winner but he might improve on his 3rd place he ran last year. Personally I think Monmouth makes The Tin Man more dangerous.

since i assume that the dirt and dust from a dirt track made its way into a horse lungs, i was wondering about that and just what the informed opinion is about that in regard to synthetic fibers, and what is the risk of infection and disease

I have assume that the risk has been weighed and found to be negligible. The polytrack surface has been in operation for years in England as well as about 3 years now at Turfway. I have not heard anything specific but there is certainly no epidemic of lung infections or diseases. Perhaps there might be something long term but I doubt it. At least we know there are few immediate effects because the horses who have competed over it here for the last few years have been fine.

i have to say, after SS's run in the Jim Dandy, i am looking forward to see what Curlin has to offer // while not being a total speed handicapper, it did not pass my attention that AGS came up with a better beyers figure than SS // interesting to say the least // thanks// chicago gerry

I think Street Sense's figure (104) is more or less a sidebar. I don't think he was cranked for the Jim Dandy I think he was a lot less prepared than AGS was for the Dwyer or Curlin will be for the Haskell. Street Sense was having an easy first race back while Curlin will need to fire on all cylinders to beat the field set to oppose him. I had been higher on Curlin than Street Sense after the Preakness but I have to say that Street Sense will be very very hard to beat in the Travers. Curlin is playing catch up I think.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

regarding English Channel and the Breeders Cup, i said that it is likely that the Euros would bring there best // i meant to say that it is 'unlikely' that they would bring their best // even so, Euro second tier turfers may be superior to what we have here // last year Hurricane was nothing like he had been in the past and i think his trainer sent an assistant across the pond //so he definitely was not top tier material and showed it// i don't know where the turf winner, Red Rock, stood in in relation to other Euro horses that may have been better and who were not sent // i don't think Red Rock was regarded aa top horse over there // in any case, Red Rock went off at decent odds and represented the Euro turfers well // i do agree wholeheartedly with KC's assessment that the Monmouth turf course will help English Channel // also, i believe Plecther has an uncanny ability to keep his charges on form// we'll see// regarding Rags To Riches, for some reason, maybe obvious ones, i think Plecher is doing his best to retire the filly undefeated// i am really not sure if in fact she is sound right now and it would not surprise me if she does not race again // if she is entered in the Alabama and wins, i don't look for Pletcher to run her against colts and horses in the Breeders Cup // thanks/ chicago gerry