Friday, August 03, 2007

Weekend Picks and Analysis

Overview: Life and specifically the stock market has been conspiring against me this week and mandating that my posts here are sporadic. I suppose it's a blessing in disguise that not much of consequence is going on this weekend aside from the Haskell. We do have Nashoba's Key looking to remain unbeaten in the Hirsch as well as Price Tag and Precious Kitten butting heads in the Mabee. Saratoga will feature the fabulous Dream Rush, in a race that will likely test her more than any other in her career. But getting back to the Haskell, it's not a race I'd look to wager on. I'm just going to watch and hopefully be amazed. I really would like to see Any Given Saturday and Curlin run well. I think those are the two best horses when all is said and done.

West Virginia Derby
A very even contest where one could likely get some good value. One of the best value plays going these days is Delightful Kiss. He has won his last two in fine style and is still only 9/2 on the morning line for this race. The public is obviously not sold on him, the problem with going against him is that he owns perhaps the two best career performances in the field, and they were his last two races. You simply have to include him based on the form he has shown himself capable of. But I will likely look to key the speed in this race. There are only two horses with speed, Slew's Tizzy and Song of Navarone. Neither of them are need the lead types but both of them are very tough to pass if they are allowed to set their own pace. They could conceivably get in a speed duel and then both of them would be in trouble but I'm looking for one of them to back off the pace, probably Slew's Tizzy and the other to set a slow pace. That should make them both very tough to beat. I'm not a fan of the big name horses like Zanjero or Sam P. They are 0 for 10 this year. I prefer horses that win, I'll always let confirmed losers beat me once. Song of Navarone is the horse I'm really going to pull for. He is consistent and has done very well since stretching out. He comes in off the long layoff but that's not a real worry for me, he's been working long over Polytrack and that should have him more than fit.

Song of Navarone
Slew's Tizzy
Delightful Kiss

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Arlington Park// the DRF has done well with the consensus top three contenders of late, several times 7 of 10 races but not with the winner on top // i think today the DRF will have over half of top picks will win // especially races 2 thru 6 and races 8 thru 10 // this will make for some low cost pick 3's, pick 4's, and daily doubles where you can single and make flat straight bets //

The reclaim angle can be a good one //today we have two races where this applies // B Blue in the 1st with leading trainer and Cope With Honor in the 7th // WE also have a 2nd time re-trainer in Magna Hector with Te Quiero Viejo in the 7th // I will also be taking for a price Tizaire Hart in the 7th // those horses having little or no polytrack experience have done poorly at Arlington and i have taken several now and have been burned, but i will stick with Tizaire Hart// we'll see // the stakes race in the 9th may have a vulnerable favorite so i will include Star By Design in the 9th based on past performance, class, and the fact this horse has already beaten some of these // good luck to all // thanks //chicago gerry