Friday, July 27, 2007

Saratoga 2yo's

Results and Record: I remained perfect in maiden races for the meet but my large number of selections in the Sanford ate away my profits. Favorites won both races. I was hoping someone with a bigger price would have taken the Sanford but at least I had the winner included.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(2)-2-0-1 (-$0.80 -8.00% ROI)
Overall record: 8(4)-3-0-1 (+$0.80 +5.00% ROI)

Race 2
I've never been very high on statebreds, I find that my profitability usually erodes with the quality of horses. Statebreds tend to be cheaper type horses. The key to this race will be the tote board in the first 5 minutes after it opens. None of these horses look especially good so it will come down to who takes the money. I think both of the horses who ran already were pretty poor so I'm looking to a first timer. The three that stand off the page are Tribolet, Blue Flight and Another Gulch. The only thing that would make me touch Tribolet is if the other two are stone cold on the board. Pletchers horses (aside from his Sanford entrants) have been horrible and 2/1 is no kind of morning line to take. Now his stable is too good to be cold indefinitely and his sire Hook And Ladder is red hot but still. I think you use him but maybe not in straight wagers. Blue Flight is interesting, he goes for the Bond stable who has been cold for years but often picks up at Saratoga. Bond is bad with first timers but this horse sold for nearly 10 times the stud value at a 2yo in training sale. That means they saw him work and paid $105 for him which is a ton for a New York bred Phone Trick. His works have not been great though so perhaps Bond does not have him ready first time, the tote board should tell. Because of the uncertainty over the other two I think I'm settling on a longshot as my primary selection. Another Gulch is 12/1 on the morning line and goes postward for Tom Bush. Bush has had a good meet thus far is even more effective with Garcia aboard. He is one of the only trainers aside from Pletcher who has a decent record with first timers. He had a first timer yesterday who ran third beaten by 5 lengths, but that was much tougher and Another Gulch's works seems to line up well with that one. I suspect that they might have even been workmates a few works back.

Another Gulch
Blue Flight

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