Results and Record: Sargent Seattle worked out like a dream. He was much the best and it was nice to get $7.60 on him. The stakes races on the other hand was a bit of a debacle. I got it completely wrong. In my initial analysis I had Sublte Aly marked for the short list but decided that I didn't like her at all. My initial instincts were certainly better that time. Despite turning a slight profit I'm hoping for better results on Thursday.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-1-0-0 (+$1.60 +26.66% ROI)
Overall record: 3(2)-1-0-0 (+$1.60 +26.66% ROI)
I personally think this affair is very straightforward. I love Twisted Tale, second timers are often good value and the Asmussen 2yo's have started off well. He always drills his live 2yo's over the track at least once and although her works were not that great she has never really been flashy in the mornings. She got a great form reference yesterday as Subtle Aly came out of her race to win the stakes feature. Twisted Tale was actually a stablemate of Sublte Aly during that maiden race and was favored over her. She should come good in this spot. I do respect the Lukas horse Cozy Mesa. She gets Gomez aboard and will likely be ridden more forwardly. She ran very well in her debut and has fired a bullet since then. Alachua is dangerous but given the way all the Pletcher horses backed up yesterday I'm not taking her. Pletcher actually got off to a slow start last year as well with maidens. Ellie's Buddha could be live for Biancone, I would include her in exotics under Twisted Tale.
Now given the fact that Pletcher went 5-0-0-1 on opening day what do you see happening in a race where he has two of the keys? I'm having a really hard time parsing through this race, there are so many contenders so I'll just make my arguments for all of them as I scan down the race and maybe I'll clear some things up for myself even as I write. Sok Sok is the the first horse that catches the eye. He got a nice figure for his maiden, has two works over the track for Asmussen and showed in his debut that he can come from off the pace. I don't know how the track will be playing on Thursday but on Wednesday late runners had the advantage. I think he naturally wants to be closer and the break was the thing that hurt him last time but at least we know he does not need the lead. The Roundhouse will also appreciate a track that favors closers this half to Circular Quay came the clouds in his first start. He had tons of trouble that day and most likely he will not be as far back today. He gets Gomez aboard and has the live "other" Pletcher angle going for him. Fed Watcher is considered to be the best maiden winner at Belmont and he'll get a lot of play in this race. He is actually a dangerous horse because there might not be anyone else who can go with him early. If speed is holding it could be curtains for the rest. I do suspect though that his high figure is a little too high and he may come back off that race. With every entrant I always try to identify why they are in a certain race and I have to say I have no clue what Twenty Eight Hours is doing here and it intrigues me. He won his debut well enough but then he was thrashed in the Tremont by Ready's Image whom he has to face here again. He did not have any noticeable trouble in that race although he did stop running for a bit on the turn before re-rallying but he was very well beaten. Stanley Hough is not the kind of guy who routinely enters bombs in big races hoping for the best. This horse fired a bullet in his first back from the Tremont and just may be in love with the main track. Given the quality we saw from Sargent Seattle yesterday from the same barn he merits a long look. Ready's Image is a worthy favorite. He has looked all class in his wins and his loss came over a poor track. This race almost reminds me of Scat Daddy vs Circular Quay in the Hopeful last year. This horse is like Scat Daddy and The Roundhouse I very much like his older brother at this point. That day belonged to Circular Quay but Ready's Image really is hard to drop. Even with Pletcher's poor performance record he looks solid up and down. I don't think I really cleared things up for myself. I will oppose Fed Watcher but I think I have to go with the other 4. So if Ready's Image wins I'm locking in a loss. If you are playing multi-race tickets I think you need to go deep but if you're playing this race in isolation you may have to just pick one angle and go for it.
Twenty Eight Hours