Friday, January 18, 2008

Weekend Picks and Analysis

Saturday Gulfstream Race #6
It's a slow week for stakes races, not much is being offered and from the stakes races that are being run I don't see any great plays that mix a great chance to win with some possible value on the board. I do however see those two situations in Gulfstreams 6th. This is a race that has the potential to yield a contender for the Triple Crown trail if they're impressive. Obviously none of these horse have won yet but many of them are largely untested and are going for high profile connections. One of the biggest reasons I like this race is because most of the bettors will see it as a contest between Elysium Fields and Vacation. Both horses are consistent and pretty good but both have lost races that they probably should have won. The problem likely has more to do with their heads than their legs. Not all horses are born winners and Vacation in particular looks a bit vulnerable because he is not getting any changes at all and his half sister Boca Grande struggled to get 9f. Dynaformer should infuse more stamina but this horse has just been clunking up in races ever since his debut. Elysium Fields is dangerous because of getting blinkers on. that might get him into the race a little sooner but Tagg's string has been cold. Get The News is the first alternative to catch my eye. In his debut he was well thought of but he had a tough inside post and was rushed right from the start. I think a bit more patience will be possible in this longer race. Ward is very good at getting his horses to stretch out first time and he almost always reveals a good 3yo at the Gulfstream winter meet. This might be his horse. He is sending him back on relatively short rest which means he has at least considered gearing him up for some stakes races in the near future if he runs well. Another horse I like but more as a longshot is Subprime Lending. Violette is deadly with second time starters, especially those who were well bet first time out and are getting equipment changes. He has not been historically successful stretching his horses out and the 11 post is not an easy one to deal with but this horse should step forward and he might be upwards of 20/1 at the off. I would use Get The News and Subprime Lending over Elysium Fields and Vacation in exacta's. I might keep a wary eye on Admirality as well.

Get The News
Subprime Lending

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