Friday, October 10, 2008

Weekend Picks And Analysis

Perryville Stakes
I'm So Lucky looks to me like a horse you could probably go against. The form from the King's Bishop turned out to be poor and i think he's looked better on traditional dirt. 7f on this surface will likely favor horse who are stout enough to fully see out the distance. Keeneland is quite tiring and you often see the leader getting passed in the final 1/8th. I'm looking more at horses who have shown the ability to win longer rather than shorter. Pletcher's Meal Penalty looks dangerous. He's got speed but you know he can carry it for a full two furlongs past this distance. He'll likely be pressing the speed of Eaton's Gift and be the first to set for home. He won't be an easy horse to get by as long as the pace is not breakneck. Amazing Results is the closer I'd use just to hedge the bet a little. He's undefeated on synthetics and his trainer is very good at shipping down from Arlington. I really don't think this horse shows his best form in 5 1/2f Turf sprints. 7f on the Polytrack is a better fit. Keep an eye out for him in the late going. 20/1 on the morning line is ridiculous for him. He'll likely be around 12/1.

Meal Penalty
Amazing Results

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
A very interesting race although probably without any real Breeders' Cup implications. I think Ariege is likely the horse to beat. I recognize that Backseat Rhythm is the hot horse but I don't like the fact that she is so far into a form cycle. I always prefer to see horses with a fairly recent layoff for a race like this. Incidentally horses who have tried to win this race without a layoff in their last 3 starts are 15-0-0-1. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Backseat Rhythm, Sefroua, Closeout, My Princess Jess and Lickety Lemon. If you have the money to throw down a trifecta box on the other 6 it may not be a terrible wager. But we're not going to wimp out and take 6 horses. To get back on topic I'm also not a big fan of Backseat Rhythm because I think she might prefer some cut in the ground and Keeneland right now is pretty hard. Ariege on the other hand does handle firm ground very well and I suspect that she's just a very good horse. Maybe better on synthetics but quite good on the grass. The distance might turn a few off of her because she seemed to fade in the last bit of the Garden City but a yielding course is always more testing and I think she'll see out the 9f on this track. I think the pace is going to be slow, My Baby Baby and Storm Mesa should be at the head of affairs and as long as no one gets foolish the late runners might have a hard time closing ground. We all saw what Laragh did to her foes in the Jessamine. Ariege and Alwajeeha should be minding the pace closely and I prefer the quick turn of foot that Ariege has. I think she'll really get over the firm ground. My Baby Baby is an interesting longshot if she can get in front and control the pace. She actually has the highest Turf beyer in the field although it looks like an anomaly. She was able to get right up on the pace that day and she freaked out over a very similar course. I don't normally like Euro's second off the plane but Motion is a very dangerous trainer in this race so his Sefroua has to be respected. Rosa Grace was a much better horse than Sefroua in Europe and I like the way she's been brought into the race much better. She did not have the cleanest trip last time. A clearer passage and first time Lasix could see her stepping up in a big way. I'll settle for Ariege on top though, I think she's the best horse. I also respect My Baby Baby's speed enough to use her at a price.

Ariege
My Baby Baby

1 comment:

race said...

Mr. Kennedy--QE II Cup--I couldn't get off the Storm Mesa Gal, Calhoun had her at Churchill, flew her back to Del Mar, then flew her back to Churchill to get acclimated for this race? I do like Ariege, but I don't think the public will let her go off at 3-1, but I'll definetly have her in my exotics. Looking forward to your analyisis of the Synthetics at Breeders Cup time. It should be a roller coaster for all of us---r