Friday, January 23, 2009

Sunshine Millions - Gulfstream

Sunshine Millions Dash
This is the only Millions race where free data was not available. It's not a very interesting race anyway. I think You Luckie Mann is the horse to beat even with the outside post. Most of the other fast horses in here are primarily synthetic ones. Backbackbackgone is likely the horse I'd settle on just because of his inward starting berth and the fact that California speed often has an advantage when facing easterners. Backbackbackgone may not have much dirt experience but he has learned to rate so I think he's ideally suited to adapt to whatever he faces here. He and You Luckie Mann look like the best horses but Backbackbackgone should be a higher price.


Sunshine Millions Filly And Mare Turf
I think Wild Promises is the banker of the week. Aside from Zee Zee there isn't much in the way of a routine stroll around the track, she might even have time for some sightseeing. Wild Promises spent all of 2008 in fairly minor contests and she proved to be well above that level. This is a horse destined for Graded Stakes and maybe even G-1 company. She can rate so there is little danger in her getting burned out by a rabbit. Hopefully she wins with the authority she ought to.

Wild Promises

Sunshine Millions Filly And Mare Sprint
It took me a long time to finally decide that Mistical Plan was the most likely winner. It's a shame that the odds maker agrees with me because there are so many other horses here who could have an impact. I closely considered Lovely Isle because I think she loves traditional dirt but her only race at Gulfstream was a disaster so I don't think she's worth the risk. High Resolve has done little wrong for the high percentage Gilchrist barn. She has only lost once on dirt but class is the question with her. Peisinoe would be my top pick if not for Mistical Plan. The switch to dirt has been a godsend for her and she is working well in the mornings. She is a bit one dimensional and with all the other speed I think she will be hard pressed to show her best. Mistical Plan is the fastest horse in the race and the classiest. She hasn't lost a dirt sprint at less than 7f and her Princess Rooney form is worlds above what any of these other horses could match. My one fear with her is that this race is front end loaded. There is so much speed that any speed horse might be compromised. It might be wise to hedge with a closer. A decent outsider who should be able to close is Unfolding Wish. She is way short on class but she loves the distance and if the pace falls apart she might be the horse to pick up the pieces. There aren't too many horses in this race that finish strongly. Perhaps Flashover merits a look as well but the synthetics issue does cloud my perception of her.

Mistical Plan
Unfolding Wish

Sunshine Millions Classic
I think this race is much more than a showdown between Macho Again and Delightful Kiss. In fact in might not be about either of them. Delightful Kiss is in good form at the moment but I wonder if that form has already reached it's peak. He has been on the go since last May and recently his works have been quite a bit slower than usual. This is a race that would test him even when he's in top form. If there is a chance he could be a bit off I can't take 3/1. I think the true class of this field is Dry Martini. He loves the conditions and he was never better than he was with Tagg. He is rounding back into the form that saw him capture a few graded stakes and Gulfstream might be his favorite track. I think Atoned is a major danger and should be used in all spots but I just feel like, despite his last win, that he has a bit of a losing habit. If you wait around with horses like this more often than not you'll get passed. It hasn't escaped my notice that Finallymadeit could have the front end all to himself but I'm hoping someone steps out of character a bit and keeps tabs on him, maybe Hey Byrn or Atoned will do their civic duty. I'm a bit interested in It's A Bird. The Gann/Wolfson team scored with Ikigai last week at 8/1 in a Gulfstream stakes and they might have a live one here. He ran decently in the Hal's Hope but a one turn race isn't going to give him the type of chance he needs to win. I think he's on the upswing and he looms a danger.

Dry Martini
It's A Bird

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