Thursday, April 02, 2009

Keeneland Spring Meet 2009

One of the great joys of spring is the Keeneland Meet. It offers a neat distraction from months of Triple Crown micro analyzing and of course gives me a regular chance to make a chump out of myself.

It has long been a secret ambition of mine to be a public handicapper and it has been a common practice for me to ply my hand to this trade at Keeneland and Saratoga (as well as Royal Ascot) Occasionally life overwhelms and I miss the odd Keeneland meet but here are some of my results from past years.

Spring 2008 - 25 winners (-31.1%)
Fall 2007 - 36 winners (-3.4%)
Fall 2006 - 36 winners (-20.2%)
Spring 2006 - 43 winners (+9.4%)
Spring 2005 - 47 Winners (+5.8%)

Fall 2006 was when Keeneland switched to Polytrack and as you can see from the results my handicapping has never recovered. My goal of every meet is to show a flat bet profit on my selections, pick 50 winners for the meet and have one day where I sweep the entire card. I've never accomplished any of the three goals on Polytrack nor have I accomplished the latter two at all. But before the meet begins optimism always abounds.

I will be posting my picks on the sidebar as well as this spreadsheet which will also contain a breakdown of my results.

Best of luck to anyone who plans to play at Keeneland this Spring!


The_Knight_Sky said...

Good luck at Keeneland Ken.

That's Spring meet (or the autumn meet) was never really made for me.
I prefer to go the safe route with a complete circuit that offers continuity.

There are too many shippers,
class changes, riding colony and training colony changes from meet to meet on a surface they're all still trying to figure out.

Now I won't say you won't find a gem or two during the meet - you probably will, but I don't have that much patience with Keeneland and the 'revolving door' type of racing it offers.

It's a shame really.
Keeneland traded in one bias for another. Does it really allow the horses to prove 'best'? I have my doubts.

Anonymous said...

Good Luck with the spring meet. I'll keep checking back for your analysis.