Thursday, April 02, 2009

Future Wager - Pool #3

I think the Future Wager's are a great marketing ploy for Churchill Downs because despite the fact that I know these are a poor proposition for making money I find myself tempted by every new pool. I'm seemingly compelled to analyze the wager and make a few picks even though I know it's a bad idea. I suspect I'm not alone with this fatal fascination. So for those of us that just can't help ourselves here are my thoughts on Pool #3.

As always I focus my attention on horses that aren't running while the pool is open. I think you can get better value and since this is Thursday I want my analysis to be relevant at least until the pool closes. It's no good saying I want Imperial Council above 20/1 because his price will reflect the perception of his performance. If he's up the track you'll definitely get 20/1 but will you still want it? The only way to take advantage of these types of horses is in real time and I won't be following the Future Wager live on this blog.

Old Fashioned
Once the belle of the ball now he might be hard pressed to get a date. The line maker still respects him making him 10/1 but my feeling is that he'll be on the drift. Above 15/1 I like him as a play. I think he's getting a bit of a bad rap for the Rebel. He still has every chance to come back and win the Arkansas Derby in fine style and make himself one of the favorites

I've been a fan of his since last fall and he may just round into form by the time he lines up for the Derby. He's a massive long shot and I think I'll demand 50/1 or more on him but this is a horse that could easily win the Blue Grass and be 10/1 on Derby day. He is a closer so his running style isn't ideal but he did out close Pioneerof the Nile both times they met so there is some quality there.

I tried to play him in the last pool but his odds were lower than I wanted to accept. Now after a rough third in the Florida Derby he was in danger of being dropped off the list altogether. I'd be surprised if anyone bets this horse seriously in Pool #3 so his price could wind up being one of the highest maybe even in 80/1 type territory. If you're willing to ignore the fact that he looked like a non stayer in the Florida Derby his numbers really aren't that bad. He could certainly do a Charismatic and rebound in the Lexington. The only reason I'm considering him here is because his trainer wants to give him another shot. He hasn't been as good as McPeek thought he would be so maybe he finds the key and we see a much different horse at Keeneland. I'd want more than 40/1 on him to consider a play.

Here are my picks from the first two pools that met my criteria.

Pool #1
Flying Pegasus - 28/1
Hello Broadway - 30/1
I Want Revenge - 54/1
Patena - 22/1

Pool #2
Bear's Rocket - 99/1
West Side Bernie - 43/1


BitPlayer said...

Love your blog, but I don't understand why you think the future wager is such bad value. It's a parimutuel wager, with the standard takeout. Do you think the pool contains less uninformed money?

Kennedy said...

Because they restrict the pool to a certain amount of horses the odds on each of the horses is shorter than they would be if you could be on every TC nominee.

It's also poor value because I don't think the bettor is properly compensated for the risk of time. Odds are fairly short on the favorites even in the initial pools.

I also think the pool is like a lottery ticket whereas betting on a race can be a more calculated investment.

BitPlayer said...

It sounds like your position is really that the individual horses represent poor value. If that's the case, then "all other 3yos" would be the value play. Historically, that seems to have been the case, although I notice that the odds on "all others" seem to be lower this year than in the past.