Saturday, August 01, 2009

Saratoga Diary - Aug 1

The weather does look improved for Saratoga today and we do have a carryover for the Pick 6 that begins with Race 6. I think we'll see the real players getting serious today. We do have one race that has come off the turf, Race 2 but the scratches have not come out yet. Personal time constraints will prevent me from posting these plays after the scratches but before the card begins so here we go.

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Hoopoe/Tigresco/Zimmer =$12

Race #4
$10 W - Colors Flying

$1 Pick 3 (4/5/6)
Colors Flying/Jayden's Hope
Luv Gov/Darley Entry/Burley's Gold/Stealth Missile
Discreetly Mine

Race #6
$10 W - Discreetly Mine
$2 exacta box - Discreetly Mine/Zayat Entry/Hockley =$12

My key for the day is Discreetly Mine and I'm actually steering clear of the stakes races. Forever Together should win and she's my primary selection but I do respect Carribean Sunset and I think the ground moves her up. Getting back to Discreetly Mine I'll use him in the win pool, exacta's and as a single for my Pick 3. That's placing a lot of weight on him but I think he's fabulous and clearly the best bet of the day.

I'm fooling around a bit with an exacta in Race #2 despite not seeing the scratches. I think most of the connections will tend to leave their horses in and it's a very playable race.

In Race 4 I think the McGaughey horse Colors Flying is sitting on a big race. I know she'll be well bet because of her breeding and connections but I love seeing horses from this barn with fast 5f works. That's not something you see often and I think it's a real go signal. I'm placing a bit of emphasis on Colors Flying as well although I am hedging a bit in the Pick 3.

I think the Pick 6 is worth a shot but not on a budget of $50 per day. Forever Together is bit vulnerable and the state-bred stakes race looks wide open. There are also some good possible singles with Discreetly Mine and Winchester.

Best of luck to everyone today!

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