Every year in this space we have our own little awards. The purpose of these awards is not to have my own little awards. The reason we host these awards is to present a workable alternative format for the Eclipse Awards that is based on more than just the opinions and sometimes biases of a few journalists and officials. We've inserted clear guidelines as well as a statistical component to hopefully balance out the bias that comes with opinion.
Ultimately the proof has to be in the pudding. Do the Eclipse Awards work as they are or is change necessary? Here are the 2009 Award winners below.
2009 TCR Awards
Horse of the Year: Curlin
Main Track Older Male: Curlin
Main Track Older Female: Zenyatta
Turf Male: Einstein
Turf Female: Forever Together
Male Sprinter: Street Boss
Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing
Three Year Old Male: Big Brown
Three Year Old Female: Indian Blessing
Two Year Old Male: Midshipman
Two Year Old Female: Stardom Bound
2009 Eclipse Awards
Horse of the Year: Curlin
Older Male: Curlin
Older Female: Zenyatta
Male Turf Horse: Conduit (IRE)
Female Turf Horse: Forever Together
Male Sprinter: Benny the Bull
Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing
Three-Year-Old Male: Big Brown
Three-Year-Old Filly: Proud Spell
Two-Year-Old Male: Midshipman
Two-Year-Old Filly: Stardom Bound
There were only three differences this year. Turf Male, Male Sprinter and Three Year Old Female. We'll take a look at them one by one.
Turf Male
Conduit or Einstein? They had the same number of G-1 wins and the same number of wins in total but Conduit had a better winning percentage. To me it's a question of eligibility. These awards are supposed to be for American horses and Conduit was not an American horse. I think a rule stipulating a minimum number of starts in America should be immediately enforced. The TCR Awards have a rule to that effect and that is the primary reason that Conduit was not the TCR champion. I see Conduit's selection as a bit of a double standard as well since Goldikova was not given the female equivalent award. If Conduit's season was better than Einstein's then Goldikova's was better than Forever Together's. This award needs to go to an American based horse and the call between Einstein and Conduit was a close one anyway. TCR 1: Eclipse 0
Male Sprinter
This is one case where I think the Eclipse Awards outperformed. Benny The Bull was the rightful champion and I was pleasantly surprised that Midnight Lute was not voted champion. Benny had the best year overall and unfortunately Street Boss was made TCR champion. I think the reasons for this were two fold. The first reason is that Street Boss had a more full campaign and it exposed the weakness of a points system. The more you run the more points you get. Second of all not many people vote for these awards so even though Benny The Bull had the highest voting total it wasn't enough to overturn the point deficit. Even 10 more voters with Benny The Bull on top would have made him champion. This incident will inspire a change in the way the points are used for next years awards. Instead of using the straight TCR score the point component will be made up of 50% TCR and 50% Power Rankings. I've looked at the ramifications of this method through all my back data and found that it changes very little but one of the things it would have changed is this award. TCR 1: Eclipse 1
Three Year Old Female
This one will come down to a difference of opinion but I heartily disagree with giving Proud Spell this award. She did not deserve it based on the strength of her campaign. I think it was just a case of most people believing she was atop this division all year so the vote was a no-brainer. If you sit down and look at her the record beside that of Indian Blessing and Music Note she comes out third best. Proud Spell was inferior in every category you would use to decide between horses except for earnings. Her head to head record with these two was at best even. One could say though that Music Note beat her handily once while Proud Spell only managed to reverse that result narrowly. Proud Spell had fewer G-1 wins, fewer wins in total, the worst winning percentage of the trio and she even ran in the fewest number of G-1 races. She never faced older horses and managed to lose to some inferior ones her age. She also had the lowest average speed figures and the narrowest winning margins. I simply don't see a case for her as champion aside from the fact that she had a big reputation. There is some clamor over the fact that a sprinter, like Indian Blessing, shouldn't be eligible for this award. That's something to consider and I'm going to set about making clear cut divisional guidelines, but the fact still remains that both Indian Blessing and Music Note were more worthy than Proud Spell. TCR 2: Eclipse 1
I think the Eclipse Awards come out the loser again especially when you consider that IEAH did not get the champion owner award. That was flat out robbery and I'm surprised that IEAH was as gracious as they were in defeat. The NTRA clearly had a problem with IEAH that went beyond what they accomplished on the track and they decided to punish them at the polls. The NTRA voting block was the only one that favored Stronach over IEAH and they favored Stronach heavily. It's an absolute disgrace to racing from an organization that is supposed to be leading reform.
I do this every year but I want to ask again: Who in the world voted for Henrythenavigator as champion Turf Horse? How about Tale of Ekati for champion 3yo? Or Desert party for juvenile champion? These voters need to be exposed, ridiculed and put on probation for failing to take this process seriously. To the 40 voters who missed the one month ballot mail in window, you should excluded altogether and never given a ballot again. There is no reason why a person, who is supposed to be one of the true insiders of this sport, should fail to get their vote in aside from a lengthy stay in the hospital.
Eclipse Awards need to change, we need guidelines, accountability and a point system. It really isn't that hard. If a regular joe like me can create some guidelines that make the process better why can't the industry professionals do the same?
Showing posts with label Thoroughbred Championship Rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thoroughbred Championship Rankings. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
2009 TCR Awards
2009 TCR Award Winners
Horse of the Year: Curlin
Main Track Older Male: Curlin
Main Track Older Female: Zenyatta
Turf Male: Einstein
Turf Female: Forever Together
Male Sprinter: Street Boss
Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing
Three Year Old Male: Big Brown
Three Year Old Female: Indian Blessing
Two Year Old Male: Midshipman
Two Year Old Female: Stardom Bound
Full results including the breakdown of the point and vote totals are available below. No overall points winner was overturned by the voting this year. But there were only three horses who achieved the highest point total and were not the top vote-getter's. Unfortunately for Proud Spell (Three Year Old Female) Benny The Bull (Male Sprinter) and Zenyatta (Horse of the Year) they did not win the voting segment by a large enough margin.
These awards will naturally evolve over time as we learn more about how to assess accomplishments accurately. If you have any suggestions about how to improve this process please drop me a line. Thanks to everyone who supported this project. We look forward to a great year in 2009!
Horse of the Year: Curlin
Main Track Older Male: Curlin
Main Track Older Female: Zenyatta
Turf Male: Einstein
Turf Female: Forever Together
Male Sprinter: Street Boss
Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing
Three Year Old Male: Big Brown
Three Year Old Female: Indian Blessing
Two Year Old Male: Midshipman
Two Year Old Female: Stardom Bound
Full results including the breakdown of the point and vote totals are available below. No overall points winner was overturned by the voting this year. But there were only three horses who achieved the highest point total and were not the top vote-getter's. Unfortunately for Proud Spell (Three Year Old Female) Benny The Bull (Male Sprinter) and Zenyatta (Horse of the Year) they did not win the voting segment by a large enough margin.
These awards will naturally evolve over time as we learn more about how to assess accomplishments accurately. If you have any suggestions about how to improve this process please drop me a line. Thanks to everyone who supported this project. We look forward to a great year in 2009!
Thursday, January 22, 2009
TCR Award Reminder
The voting window is almost closed for the 3rd Annual TCR Awards.
On Monday the votes will be tallied and combined with the TCR point system to give us our year end champions.
If you haven't voted yet you can check out this link or simply take note of the finalists listed on the sidebar and rank them in the exact order of your preference. Drop me an email (canken19@hotmail.com) or post it in the comments section.
There are some tight battles shaping up in the Three Year Old Female and Male Sprinter divisions. The voting deadline is this Sunday (Jan 25th) at midnight so make your opinion count!
On Monday the votes will be tallied and combined with the TCR point system to give us our year end champions.
If you haven't voted yet you can check out this link or simply take note of the finalists listed on the sidebar and rank them in the exact order of your preference. Drop me an email (canken19@hotmail.com) or post it in the comments section.
There are some tight battles shaping up in the Three Year Old Female and Male Sprinter divisions. The voting deadline is this Sunday (Jan 25th) at midnight so make your opinion count!
Monday, January 05, 2009
My Ballot
No, they don't give me an Eclipse ballot. I don't actually think I deserve one but I do think I'd make good use of it if given. Unlike at least 25% of the eligible voters who don't even bother to vote and another percentage who don't put much time or effort into their ballot.
This ballot is for the TCR Awards. If you have no idea what that is take a quick peek at the post below this one. The TCR Awards ask for fans to vote on the horses they feel are the most deserving champions. If you haven't already voted please do.
Here is how I am voting.
Horse of the Year
Curlin
Zenyatta
Big Brown
Einstein
Ginger Punch
Zenyatta had a perfect season but she never faced males and didn't even compete exclusively in G-1 company among the females. Curlin did suffer a pair of defeats but both of those came when he switched surfaces. I give the edge to Curlin for competing more at a higher level and still winning the same number of G-1's that Zenyatta did. Big Brown is a distant third in my mind. Einstein and Ginger Punch have no real chance.
Main Track Older Male
Curlin
Benny The Bull
Well Armed
Street Boss
Einstein
Curlin is a clear winner of this division but I had trouble separating the next four. I decided on Benny The Bull ahead of the others despite the lack of a domestic G-1. Being undefeated was a big factor for me in a year when not many older horses distinguished themselves.
Main Track Older Female
Zenyatta
Cocoa Beach
Ginger Punch
Intangaroo
Hystericalady
Zenyatta is a slam dunk but like the Older Males the next four are tough to separate. Not because they were all poor but because they were all quite good. I settled on Cocoa Beach in second ahead of Ginger Punch because of their head to head record. Although Intangaroo earned fewer TCR points it's hard to put her below Hystericalady when she beat her both times they met and also won 3 G-1's compared to none by Hystericalady.
Turf Male
Einstein
Dancing Forever
Champs Elysees
Hyperbaric
Presious Passion
This is one of the worst groups of Turf horses in last decade. It's not as if there was no talent but the most talented horses of the stateside group (Red Giant and Ever A Friend) only made two starts and failed to qualify as finalists. Einstein gets my vote but not by much, who knew that the Gulstream Park Turf in February would be the key to deciding my vote. Champs Elysees is maybe unlucky to be listed third but I felt like his wins always came against the second tier despite their grade.
Turf Female
Forever Together
Wait A While
Mauralakana
Ventura
Black Mamba
Upon close inspection I don't really think that Forever Together is as much the best as many assume she was but she won the big one beating all her main rivals so it has to be her. Wait A While had a more brief campaign than Mauralakana but she was far better when the season heated up and the competition got tougher. Had Ventura been given a full campaign on the grass she may have ended up as the top Turf Female. Races like the Breeders' Cup Mile and the Matriarch would have been good fits and if she had won just one of those two races it would have been a toss up for me.
Male Sprinter
Benny The Bull
Street Boss
Bustin Stones
Fatal Bullet
Surf Cat
Most people will wonder why Midnight Lute isn't listed. It's because he didn't meet the three race minimum but even if that qualifier didn't exist I still wouldn't vote for him. To me a Breeders' Cup Sprint win on a surface that isn't traditionally kind to speed is somewhat tainted. There is no way his BC win counts for more in my mind then Benny The Bull's fabulous four race tour de force. Benny's competition didn't wind up looking all that strong but neither did any ones. Street Boss had every chance to win this division after Benny went down with an injury but in my mind he didn't do enough. He managed to accumulate more points but I think he was inferior overall. Bustin Stones was too fragile but no one else on the list was a G-1 winner. In general it was a weak year for sprinters.
Female Sprinter
Indian Blessing
Ventura
Intangaroo
Bsharpsonata
Rite Moment
Any of the top three would be worthy champions but hats off to Indian Blessing. She lost just one sprint in six tries and is one of the most underrated stars of 2008. Ventura deserves kudos for beating her in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint but one of the strengths of the TCR Award system is that it waits for all the data to come in before allowing anyone to vote. Indian Blessing's win in the La Brea was a key deciding factor for me and the icing on the cake of a wonderful season. Intangaroo took three G-1 and can only manage third. She would have been an easy winner of the championship last year but she was unlucky to be facing some very good fillies this year. Bsharpsonata just squeaked in as a qualifier but I think she was a bit underrated as a sprinter. Indian Blessing is the only one who beat her in a one turn race. Rite Moment is the worst horse to qualify as a finalist in any division.
Three Year Old Male
Big Brown
Colonel John
Tale Of Ekati
Court Vision
Pyro
Pretty straightforward. Big Brown in a walkover. None of the others were much good in what was a bad crop.
Three Year Old Female
Indian Blessing
Music Note
Proud Spell
Pure Clan
Little Belle
It's not often that this emerges as one of the best divisions in racing but year it was as good as I've ever seen. Superb fillies like Eight Belles, Zaftig, Backseat Rhythm and Bsharpsonata don't even get consideration here. Indian Blessing wins this in my opinion she has had a fantastic year to go along with a fantastic career. Six wins from nine starts and the rest were second place finishes. That's a mark of a really good horse, even when she's beaten she isn't well beaten. Music Note gets second based on her strong run in the second half of the year. The third behind Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic was actually huge. Proud Spell lost too often for my taste. She had individual duels with Indian Blessing, Music Note and Little Belle and in every case she lost the first meeting and won the second. Her connections obviously interpreted the rematches as the most important races but she never faced older mares and only managed to win four of eight starts overall. A fantastic filly but not a deserving champion in my book.
Two Year Old Male
Midshipman
Vineyard Haven
Street Hero
Pioneerof the Nile
Big Drama
No drama here, I do suspect that Vineyard Haven was the best horse but Midshipman won the Juvenile and has to be the champ.
Two Year Old Female
Stardom Bound
Dream Empress
Sky Diva
Mani Bhavan
Laragh
Aside from Stardom Bound the rest look pretty even. I don't feel strongly that any of these four were better or worse than the others. I'll mostly just stick with the numbers on this one. Mani Bhavan is ranked over Laragh just because of the two graded stakes wins.
This ballot is for the TCR Awards. If you have no idea what that is take a quick peek at the post below this one. The TCR Awards ask for fans to vote on the horses they feel are the most deserving champions. If you haven't already voted please do.
Here is how I am voting.
Horse of the Year
Curlin
Zenyatta
Big Brown
Einstein
Ginger Punch
Zenyatta had a perfect season but she never faced males and didn't even compete exclusively in G-1 company among the females. Curlin did suffer a pair of defeats but both of those came when he switched surfaces. I give the edge to Curlin for competing more at a higher level and still winning the same number of G-1's that Zenyatta did. Big Brown is a distant third in my mind. Einstein and Ginger Punch have no real chance.
Main Track Older Male
Curlin
Benny The Bull
Well Armed
Street Boss
Einstein
Curlin is a clear winner of this division but I had trouble separating the next four. I decided on Benny The Bull ahead of the others despite the lack of a domestic G-1. Being undefeated was a big factor for me in a year when not many older horses distinguished themselves.
Main Track Older Female
Zenyatta
Cocoa Beach
Ginger Punch
Intangaroo
Hystericalady
Zenyatta is a slam dunk but like the Older Males the next four are tough to separate. Not because they were all poor but because they were all quite good. I settled on Cocoa Beach in second ahead of Ginger Punch because of their head to head record. Although Intangaroo earned fewer TCR points it's hard to put her below Hystericalady when she beat her both times they met and also won 3 G-1's compared to none by Hystericalady.
Turf Male
Einstein
Dancing Forever
Champs Elysees
Hyperbaric
Presious Passion
This is one of the worst groups of Turf horses in last decade. It's not as if there was no talent but the most talented horses of the stateside group (Red Giant and Ever A Friend) only made two starts and failed to qualify as finalists. Einstein gets my vote but not by much, who knew that the Gulstream Park Turf in February would be the key to deciding my vote. Champs Elysees is maybe unlucky to be listed third but I felt like his wins always came against the second tier despite their grade.
Turf Female
Forever Together
Wait A While
Mauralakana
Ventura
Black Mamba
Upon close inspection I don't really think that Forever Together is as much the best as many assume she was but she won the big one beating all her main rivals so it has to be her. Wait A While had a more brief campaign than Mauralakana but she was far better when the season heated up and the competition got tougher. Had Ventura been given a full campaign on the grass she may have ended up as the top Turf Female. Races like the Breeders' Cup Mile and the Matriarch would have been good fits and if she had won just one of those two races it would have been a toss up for me.
Male Sprinter
Benny The Bull
Street Boss
Bustin Stones
Fatal Bullet
Surf Cat
Most people will wonder why Midnight Lute isn't listed. It's because he didn't meet the three race minimum but even if that qualifier didn't exist I still wouldn't vote for him. To me a Breeders' Cup Sprint win on a surface that isn't traditionally kind to speed is somewhat tainted. There is no way his BC win counts for more in my mind then Benny The Bull's fabulous four race tour de force. Benny's competition didn't wind up looking all that strong but neither did any ones. Street Boss had every chance to win this division after Benny went down with an injury but in my mind he didn't do enough. He managed to accumulate more points but I think he was inferior overall. Bustin Stones was too fragile but no one else on the list was a G-1 winner. In general it was a weak year for sprinters.
Female Sprinter
Indian Blessing
Ventura
Intangaroo
Bsharpsonata
Rite Moment
Any of the top three would be worthy champions but hats off to Indian Blessing. She lost just one sprint in six tries and is one of the most underrated stars of 2008. Ventura deserves kudos for beating her in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint but one of the strengths of the TCR Award system is that it waits for all the data to come in before allowing anyone to vote. Indian Blessing's win in the La Brea was a key deciding factor for me and the icing on the cake of a wonderful season. Intangaroo took three G-1 and can only manage third. She would have been an easy winner of the championship last year but she was unlucky to be facing some very good fillies this year. Bsharpsonata just squeaked in as a qualifier but I think she was a bit underrated as a sprinter. Indian Blessing is the only one who beat her in a one turn race. Rite Moment is the worst horse to qualify as a finalist in any division.
Three Year Old Male
Big Brown
Colonel John
Tale Of Ekati
Court Vision
Pyro
Pretty straightforward. Big Brown in a walkover. None of the others were much good in what was a bad crop.
Three Year Old Female
Indian Blessing
Music Note
Proud Spell
Pure Clan
Little Belle
It's not often that this emerges as one of the best divisions in racing but year it was as good as I've ever seen. Superb fillies like Eight Belles, Zaftig, Backseat Rhythm and Bsharpsonata don't even get consideration here. Indian Blessing wins this in my opinion she has had a fantastic year to go along with a fantastic career. Six wins from nine starts and the rest were second place finishes. That's a mark of a really good horse, even when she's beaten she isn't well beaten. Music Note gets second based on her strong run in the second half of the year. The third behind Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic was actually huge. Proud Spell lost too often for my taste. She had individual duels with Indian Blessing, Music Note and Little Belle and in every case she lost the first meeting and won the second. Her connections obviously interpreted the rematches as the most important races but she never faced older mares and only managed to win four of eight starts overall. A fantastic filly but not a deserving champion in my book.
Two Year Old Male
Midshipman
Vineyard Haven
Street Hero
Pioneerof the Nile
Big Drama
No drama here, I do suspect that Vineyard Haven was the best horse but Midshipman won the Juvenile and has to be the champ.
Two Year Old Female
Stardom Bound
Dream Empress
Sky Diva
Mani Bhavan
Laragh
Aside from Stardom Bound the rest look pretty even. I don't feel strongly that any of these four were better or worse than the others. I'll mostly just stick with the numbers on this one. Mani Bhavan is ranked over Laragh just because of the two graded stakes wins.
Friday, January 02, 2009
3rd Annual TCR Awards
The TCR Awards are a feature unique to this blog. The vision of the TCR awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice. We need your votes to help decide the rightful year-end champions.
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2008 to 1999 as well as last years TCR Award results at this link.
Now is the chance for us, the fans of Thoroughbred racing, to vote on the horses that we feel were the most accomplished and thus the most deserving of year end recognition.
Voting is easy. Below you will find a list of the top TCR ranked horses in each division along with their point totals for the year. Simply take all 5 horses and rank them in the exact order of your preference. You may either post them as a comment, or send me your votes via personal email (canken19@hotmail.com).
Please familiarize yourself with these horses and their accomplishments in 2008 prior to voting. Links to the DRF Past Performances for the contenders for each division can be found below.
You do not need to vote for all 11 awards. You can simply vote for one division if you wish. However in order to be valid a vote must include all 5 of the finalists ranked in the exact order of your preference. Voting will close at midnight Jan 25th and the results will be posted on Jan 26th.
Votes will account for 50% of the final total. The final 2008 TCR standings will account for the other 50% of the consideration. The award will be given to the horse that has the highest combined point total and votes received.
All award finalists have met the following criteria:
- The finalist must have made three starts minimum in America.
- The finalist must meet the age and gender requirements of the division to be eligible.
- The finalist must have won a graded stakes in current season.
- The finalist must have run three races within the division in order to be eligible for that division.
- The finalist must have finished in the top five in the TCR after the above filters have been applied.
Thank you for supporting this project!
Here are the 2008 Finalists and their respective TCR scores. The finalists will also be listed on the sidebar until the end of the voting period.
Past Performances
Main Track Older Male
Main Track Older Female
Turf Male
Turf Female
Male Sprinter
Female Sprinter
Three Year Old Male
Three Year Old Female
Two Year Old Male
Two Year Old Female
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2008 to 1999 as well as last years TCR Award results at this link.
Now is the chance for us, the fans of Thoroughbred racing, to vote on the horses that we feel were the most accomplished and thus the most deserving of year end recognition.
Voting is easy. Below you will find a list of the top TCR ranked horses in each division along with their point totals for the year. Simply take all 5 horses and rank them in the exact order of your preference. You may either post them as a comment, or send me your votes via personal email (canken19@hotmail.com).
Please familiarize yourself with these horses and their accomplishments in 2008 prior to voting. Links to the DRF Past Performances for the contenders for each division can be found below.
You do not need to vote for all 11 awards. You can simply vote for one division if you wish. However in order to be valid a vote must include all 5 of the finalists ranked in the exact order of your preference. Voting will close at midnight Jan 25th and the results will be posted on Jan 26th.
Votes will account for 50% of the final total. The final 2008 TCR standings will account for the other 50% of the consideration. The award will be given to the horse that has the highest combined point total and votes received.
All award finalists have met the following criteria:
- The finalist must have made three starts minimum in America.
- The finalist must meet the age and gender requirements of the division to be eligible.
- The finalist must have won a graded stakes in current season.
- The finalist must have run three races within the division in order to be eligible for that division.
- The finalist must have finished in the top five in the TCR after the above filters have been applied.
Thank you for supporting this project!
Here are the 2008 Finalists and their respective TCR scores. The finalists will also be listed on the sidebar until the end of the voting period.
Past Performances
Main Track Older Male
Main Track Older Female
Turf Male
Turf Female
Male Sprinter
Female Sprinter
Three Year Old Male
Three Year Old Female
Two Year Old Male
Two Year Old Female
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
How Good Was This Year's Group?
It's a question we often start asking ourselves in the spring. I suppose it's a natural human desire to want to quantify and contextualize what we see. In many cases we rush to judgment about the quality of the crop. Many of us have made up our minds about the group even before the Derby but I think you'll be able to do a more accurate assessment if you wait until the year is all but over.
So how good was this group? Going into the Derby all the vibes were that the crop was weak. If you believe you can tell anything about a group of horses by their speed figures the suggestion was certainly there that the group was sub-par. The average winning Beyer figure for all Derby preps was 92. That's the lowest on record and a full two points lower than the next slowest group. It was also well below the 99 average that the 2002 crop achieved. A lot of people had condemned this as a poor group just based on that evidence but I personally like to balance speed with accomplishments. After all the 2007 Derby preps were also pretty slow (94 Avg) but the crop went on to be very good indeed.
The Thoroughbred Championship Rankings are essentially like a Beyer Speed Figure but instead of trying to quantify and normalize the speed of a race the aim is to boil down a horses accomplishments into a single number. It has proven to be a pretty accurate gauge of accomplishments over the last 10 years. Here are the TCR scores for the top 10 Three Year Old Males from the last four crops.
As you can likely see, aside from Big Brown the rest of this group looks a little lightweight. In every other season we've had at least two three year olds break the 200 point mark. That is a stat that has held all the way back to 1999. This is the first time in recorded history that the sophomores haven't achieved that. Tale of Ekati is ranked second this year but would have been only seventh against last years group. Court Vision might be the top three year old Turf Male but he's no where near the level of Nobiz Like Showbiz, Showing Up or even Daytona. Fatal Bullet is the best sophomore sprinter but the best three year old sprinters from previous years were also much more accomplished.
As you can see from the averages the 2008 crop is the weakest and the 2007 crop was by far the strongest.
If you don't really believe in numbers like Beyer Figures or point systems perhaps you might just accept the actual record of the crop against older horses. Below is a list of the Graded Stakes wins achieved by the top 10 three year olds listed in the spreadsheet above.
2008: 1 G-1
2007: 5 G-1, 2 G-2
2006: 3 G-1
2005: 1 G-1, 1 G-2
Tale of Ekati's recent victory in the Cigar Mile is the only open company Graded Stakes victory achieved by one of the top 10 three year olds. Obviously Raven's Pass took the Classic as well but he doesn't count in these numbers because he's not part of the North American crop. The 2007 group was something special. For 10 horses to amass 7 Graded Stakes victories in open company is no small feat.
So how good was this group? Going into the Derby all the vibes were that the crop was weak. If you believe you can tell anything about a group of horses by their speed figures the suggestion was certainly there that the group was sub-par. The average winning Beyer figure for all Derby preps was 92. That's the lowest on record and a full two points lower than the next slowest group. It was also well below the 99 average that the 2002 crop achieved. A lot of people had condemned this as a poor group just based on that evidence but I personally like to balance speed with accomplishments. After all the 2007 Derby preps were also pretty slow (94 Avg) but the crop went on to be very good indeed.
The Thoroughbred Championship Rankings are essentially like a Beyer Speed Figure but instead of trying to quantify and normalize the speed of a race the aim is to boil down a horses accomplishments into a single number. It has proven to be a pretty accurate gauge of accomplishments over the last 10 years. Here are the TCR scores for the top 10 Three Year Old Males from the last four crops.
As you can likely see, aside from Big Brown the rest of this group looks a little lightweight. In every other season we've had at least two three year olds break the 200 point mark. That is a stat that has held all the way back to 1999. This is the first time in recorded history that the sophomores haven't achieved that. Tale of Ekati is ranked second this year but would have been only seventh against last years group. Court Vision might be the top three year old Turf Male but he's no where near the level of Nobiz Like Showbiz, Showing Up or even Daytona. Fatal Bullet is the best sophomore sprinter but the best three year old sprinters from previous years were also much more accomplished.
As you can see from the averages the 2008 crop is the weakest and the 2007 crop was by far the strongest.
If you don't really believe in numbers like Beyer Figures or point systems perhaps you might just accept the actual record of the crop against older horses. Below is a list of the Graded Stakes wins achieved by the top 10 three year olds listed in the spreadsheet above.
2008: 1 G-1
2007: 5 G-1, 2 G-2
2006: 3 G-1
2005: 1 G-1, 1 G-2
Tale of Ekati's recent victory in the Cigar Mile is the only open company Graded Stakes victory achieved by one of the top 10 three year olds. Obviously Raven's Pass took the Classic as well but he doesn't count in these numbers because he's not part of the North American crop. The 2007 group was something special. For 10 horses to amass 7 Graded Stakes victories in open company is no small feat.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Solving The Sprint Problem
I don't know for sure but it looks like we're set to witness another travesty at the Eclipse Awards. I may be in the minority in this regard but I think Midnight Lute should absolutely not win the Male Sprinter Eclipse Award.
The emotion evoked from his repeat win in the Breeders' Cup Sprint probably makes him the leading contender for the Sprint Award. Everywhere I look I see sentiment in this division shifting towards him. But does Midnight Lute really deserve the award?
I strongly believe that our year end awards should be grounded in accomplishment. Brilliance ought to be what separates similarly accomplished individuals, it should not be the preeminent factor.
I think if we look at Midnight Lute's accomplishments there is no question that he doesn't measure up. Even if we look at his accomplishments and brilliance he still falls short of divisional leadership. Let's be honest the main reason for the ground swell of support is the fact that he won last year. You think there would have been any chance that Touch Tone could have won the Eclipse in 2002 if he won the Sprint? Most of you will have to consult Google to even recall who Touch Tone was. In 2002 he came into the Breeders' Cup Sprint with a slightly better current season record than the Lute. They both had one start but Touch Tone managed to run third in his effort. Had he won do you think that anyone would support his claims for top Sprinter? Breeders' Cup Sprint winners Cajun Beat, Silver Train and Elmhurst all failed to win the Eclipse and they even had other stakes wins. Touch Tone would not have been considered because he lacked name recognition.
Year End Awards are supposed to be based on what a horse accomplished within that year. Midnight Lute, or a horse with his identical record, would maybe be third in this division without the benefit of a big reputation earned in a previous season. Should we ever reward such an abbreviated season and laud that horse as an example of a champion? In my opinion the answer is clearly, no.
So who does deserve the award? I think the answer is either Benny The Bull or Street Boss. They had the best blend of accomplishments and brilliance over the course of the season. Incidentally Street Boss is the #1 ranked TCR sprinter, Benny The Bull is a close second and Midnight Lute is 5th. Power Rankings, which attempt to measure brilliance, show Benny The Bull in the #1 spot with Midnight Lute #2 and Street Boss 4th.
If you equalize the TCR and the TC Power Rankings the Male Sprinter standings would look like this.
Benny The Bull - 505.01
Street Boss - 414.67
Midnight Lute - 371.00
These are only the conclusions drawn by my in house numbers but realistically anyone could come up with the same conclusion if they just looked at the Past Performances without the names at the top.
Benny the Bull was undefeated in 4 starts over 4 different tracks in Florida New York and Dubai. Street Boss had a solid 9 race campaign with 6 wins and no out of the money finishes. He was the only dual G-1 winner in the division. Midnight Lute had just two starts, a total flop and a big win. The win in the Sprint should count for more than any other single race but does it really count for more than 3 stakes wins at the G-1 and G-2 level?
Midnight Lute is not the deserving Sprint champion. I hope justice is served and the Eclipse voters don't get caught up in the hype.
The emotion evoked from his repeat win in the Breeders' Cup Sprint probably makes him the leading contender for the Sprint Award. Everywhere I look I see sentiment in this division shifting towards him. But does Midnight Lute really deserve the award?
I strongly believe that our year end awards should be grounded in accomplishment. Brilliance ought to be what separates similarly accomplished individuals, it should not be the preeminent factor.
I think if we look at Midnight Lute's accomplishments there is no question that he doesn't measure up. Even if we look at his accomplishments and brilliance he still falls short of divisional leadership. Let's be honest the main reason for the ground swell of support is the fact that he won last year. You think there would have been any chance that Touch Tone could have won the Eclipse in 2002 if he won the Sprint? Most of you will have to consult Google to even recall who Touch Tone was. In 2002 he came into the Breeders' Cup Sprint with a slightly better current season record than the Lute. They both had one start but Touch Tone managed to run third in his effort. Had he won do you think that anyone would support his claims for top Sprinter? Breeders' Cup Sprint winners Cajun Beat, Silver Train and Elmhurst all failed to win the Eclipse and they even had other stakes wins. Touch Tone would not have been considered because he lacked name recognition.
Year End Awards are supposed to be based on what a horse accomplished within that year. Midnight Lute, or a horse with his identical record, would maybe be third in this division without the benefit of a big reputation earned in a previous season. Should we ever reward such an abbreviated season and laud that horse as an example of a champion? In my opinion the answer is clearly, no.
So who does deserve the award? I think the answer is either Benny The Bull or Street Boss. They had the best blend of accomplishments and brilliance over the course of the season. Incidentally Street Boss is the #1 ranked TCR sprinter, Benny The Bull is a close second and Midnight Lute is 5th. Power Rankings, which attempt to measure brilliance, show Benny The Bull in the #1 spot with Midnight Lute #2 and Street Boss 4th.
If you equalize the TCR and the TC Power Rankings the Male Sprinter standings would look like this.
Benny The Bull - 505.01
Street Boss - 414.67
Midnight Lute - 371.00
These are only the conclusions drawn by my in house numbers but realistically anyone could come up with the same conclusion if they just looked at the Past Performances without the names at the top.
Benny the Bull was undefeated in 4 starts over 4 different tracks in Florida New York and Dubai. Street Boss had a solid 9 race campaign with 6 wins and no out of the money finishes. He was the only dual G-1 winner in the division. Midnight Lute had just two starts, a total flop and a big win. The win in the Sprint should count for more than any other single race but does it really count for more than 3 stakes wins at the G-1 and G-2 level?
Midnight Lute is not the deserving Sprint champion. I hope justice is served and the Eclipse voters don't get caught up in the hype.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
International Power
Who is the best horse in the world? That question has been a source of contention ever since the rise of American racing. Is the dominant European horse the best or is it the American horse? In modern times the argument has had to be widened to include Japan, Australia and even Hong Kong.
Rating international stars is very difficult. All across the globe races are run in totally different ways over widely varying surfaces. Even the rating systems in the respective nations differ greatly. The International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) has emerged as the authoritative source for international ranking. They draw on the expertise of racing experts from all major racing districts to come up with Free Handicap style ratings. Free Handicap style ratings are the oldest type of form rating and are quite popular in Europe. They attempt to represent each horses ability in the form of the weight they would have to carry in order to be considered equal. For instance the IFHA has Curlin rated at 130 and Zenyatta at 120. According to their rankings Curlin would beat Zenyatta unless she was receiving more than 10 lbs.
My feeling is that it's a flawed way to rank horses. A horses best race is used to determine the sum total of their ability. So one good race from a lower quality horse can see them ranked far higher than they should be. Below is the IFHA Top 10, see what you think of the results.
IFHA Top 10
1. Curlin - 130
2. Zarkava - 127
2. Duke of Marmalade - 127
4. Big Brown - 126
4. Monmartre - 126
4. New Approach - 126
4. Papal Bull - 126
8. Tartan Bearer - 125
9. Henrythenavigator - 124
9. Tamayuz - 124
9. Youmzain - 124
They probably have the first few in the right order but there are some real shockers in the top 10. Papal Bull makes it because of his good second place finish in the King George. Duke of Marmalade was given a 127 so Papal Bull who was not beaten by much gets a 126 and that's all it takes to make him one of the 10 best in the world. Forget that he's 0 for 5 this year. Tartan Bearer is another one that sticks out for being ranked way beyond what he should.
Overall I think it's a pretty poor ranking that is biased against North Americans and is simply working off a faulty premise. Just because a horse runs one good race doesn't mean they're actually that good. Every race of their current season has to be weighed into the equation. Consider the list below which is a top 10 based on my own in house Power Rankings.
TC International Power Ranking Top 10
1. Curlin - 50.86
2. Zarkava - 49.61
3. Duke of Marmalade - 48.13
4. Big Brown - 38.84
5. Zenyatta - 34.93
6. Benny The Bull - 31.56
7. New Approach - 31.14
8. Marchand D'Or - 30.63
9. Henrythenavigator - 29.38
10. Well Armed - 27.75
I'm far from an internationally renowned expert but the list these Power Rankings produce looks far more like a real International top 10 should. At least every horse on this list has actually won a G-1 race. The IFHA should look at revising the way they rank horses. If a backyard hack like me can make a much better method than the one they use it's time for a change.
Rating international stars is very difficult. All across the globe races are run in totally different ways over widely varying surfaces. Even the rating systems in the respective nations differ greatly. The International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) has emerged as the authoritative source for international ranking. They draw on the expertise of racing experts from all major racing districts to come up with Free Handicap style ratings. Free Handicap style ratings are the oldest type of form rating and are quite popular in Europe. They attempt to represent each horses ability in the form of the weight they would have to carry in order to be considered equal. For instance the IFHA has Curlin rated at 130 and Zenyatta at 120. According to their rankings Curlin would beat Zenyatta unless she was receiving more than 10 lbs.
My feeling is that it's a flawed way to rank horses. A horses best race is used to determine the sum total of their ability. So one good race from a lower quality horse can see them ranked far higher than they should be. Below is the IFHA Top 10, see what you think of the results.
IFHA Top 10
1. Curlin - 130
2. Zarkava - 127
2. Duke of Marmalade - 127
4. Big Brown - 126
4. Monmartre - 126
4. New Approach - 126
4. Papal Bull - 126
8. Tartan Bearer - 125
9. Henrythenavigator - 124
9. Tamayuz - 124
9. Youmzain - 124
They probably have the first few in the right order but there are some real shockers in the top 10. Papal Bull makes it because of his good second place finish in the King George. Duke of Marmalade was given a 127 so Papal Bull who was not beaten by much gets a 126 and that's all it takes to make him one of the 10 best in the world. Forget that he's 0 for 5 this year. Tartan Bearer is another one that sticks out for being ranked way beyond what he should.
Overall I think it's a pretty poor ranking that is biased against North Americans and is simply working off a faulty premise. Just because a horse runs one good race doesn't mean they're actually that good. Every race of their current season has to be weighed into the equation. Consider the list below which is a top 10 based on my own in house Power Rankings.
TC International Power Ranking Top 10
1. Curlin - 50.86
2. Zarkava - 49.61
3. Duke of Marmalade - 48.13
4. Big Brown - 38.84
5. Zenyatta - 34.93
6. Benny The Bull - 31.56
7. New Approach - 31.14
8. Marchand D'Or - 30.63
9. Henrythenavigator - 29.38
10. Well Armed - 27.75
I'm far from an internationally renowned expert but the list these Power Rankings produce looks far more like a real International top 10 should. At least every horse on this list has actually won a G-1 race. The IFHA should look at revising the way they rank horses. If a backyard hack like me can make a much better method than the one they use it's time for a change.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Breeders' Cup Power
As some readers may be aware one of the new and unique features of Kennedy's Corridor is the Thoroughbred Championship Power Rankings. Unlike traditional standings which are meant to quantify what a horse has accomplished Power Rankings are an attempt to identify which horses are better. Talent must, of course, be identified and defined by accomplishment but Power Rankings give no advantage to horses who make many starts like standings do.
Since it's an attempt to answer the question "who is better" it makes sense that power rankings ought to be a useful handicapping aid. I went about testing this hypothesis over the last 12 runnings of the Breeders' Cup and made some interesting discoveries.
We all know that the best horse does not always win the race. There are so many factors that go into picking a winner. Simply identifying the best horse will not always land you on the winner. One must always asses if the "best" horse earned their status running in races like the one they're in today. For instance Curlin was most certainly the "best" horse in the Man O'War but how much does that count for when the Man O'War was his first try on turf.
All those issues aside, after a little study I found that the TC Power Rankings actually work quite well in the Breeders' Cup races even if you ignore how the horses earned their ranking. But like any useful tool you can't just use it in it's most simple form and expect good results. From the last 93 Breeders' Cup races the top ranked horse won 20 times. You would have done better simply betting on the favorite.
I am one who subscribes to the theory that the absolute top number, figure or ranking means little on a given race day. Averages are always a better way to determine who belongs and who doesn't. It's how I use speed figures and just about any other number a horse can earn. You take the average of the entire field then use only those who were better than the field average.
482 of the 1098 Breeders' Cup starts since 1996 earned a Power Ranking that was better than the field average. That's 43.89% of the starters who accounted for 61 wins in the 93 races. That's a solid impact value of 1.49. In addition to the 61 winners you could have had 38 exacta's and 15 trifecta's from boxing all the qualifiers. Needless to say hitting the exacta in 40% of the races you play is pretty good even if you are using 5 horses on average per race.
Be sure to keep an eye on the TC Power Rankings as the Breeder's Cup approaches. Chances are the winner is somewhere among the 5 top ranked horses in each race.
Current Power Rankings for selected Breeders' Cup contenders
Classic
Curlin - 47.77
Big Brown - 38.84
Go Between - 24.00
Commentator - 23.63
Well Armed - 22.07
Ladies Classic
Zenyatta - 31.77
Ginger Punch - 27.31
Music Note - 20.54
Hystericalady - 17.71
Little Belle - 10.43
Sprint
Bustin Stones - 23.50
Street Boss - 18.83
First Defence - 14.73
Rebellion - 12.14
In Summation - 11.33
Turf
Dancing Forever - 21.83
Champs Elysees - 17.63
Red Rocks - 16.38
Grand Couturier - 14.08
Spring House 12.83
Mile
Whatsthescript - 20.68
Ventura - 16.03
Daytona - 15.88
Kip Deville - 15.69
Monzante - 12.88
FM Turf
Mauralakana - 20.51
Black Mamba - 15.97
Pure Clan - 12.66
Wait A While - 12.52
Forever Together - 12.25
Since it's an attempt to answer the question "who is better" it makes sense that power rankings ought to be a useful handicapping aid. I went about testing this hypothesis over the last 12 runnings of the Breeders' Cup and made some interesting discoveries.
We all know that the best horse does not always win the race. There are so many factors that go into picking a winner. Simply identifying the best horse will not always land you on the winner. One must always asses if the "best" horse earned their status running in races like the one they're in today. For instance Curlin was most certainly the "best" horse in the Man O'War but how much does that count for when the Man O'War was his first try on turf.
All those issues aside, after a little study I found that the TC Power Rankings actually work quite well in the Breeders' Cup races even if you ignore how the horses earned their ranking. But like any useful tool you can't just use it in it's most simple form and expect good results. From the last 93 Breeders' Cup races the top ranked horse won 20 times. You would have done better simply betting on the favorite.
I am one who subscribes to the theory that the absolute top number, figure or ranking means little on a given race day. Averages are always a better way to determine who belongs and who doesn't. It's how I use speed figures and just about any other number a horse can earn. You take the average of the entire field then use only those who were better than the field average.
482 of the 1098 Breeders' Cup starts since 1996 earned a Power Ranking that was better than the field average. That's 43.89% of the starters who accounted for 61 wins in the 93 races. That's a solid impact value of 1.49. In addition to the 61 winners you could have had 38 exacta's and 15 trifecta's from boxing all the qualifiers. Needless to say hitting the exacta in 40% of the races you play is pretty good even if you are using 5 horses on average per race.
Be sure to keep an eye on the TC Power Rankings as the Breeder's Cup approaches. Chances are the winner is somewhere among the 5 top ranked horses in each race.
Current Power Rankings for selected Breeders' Cup contenders
Classic
Curlin - 47.77
Big Brown - 38.84
Go Between - 24.00
Commentator - 23.63
Well Armed - 22.07
Ladies Classic
Zenyatta - 31.77
Ginger Punch - 27.31
Music Note - 20.54
Hystericalady - 17.71
Little Belle - 10.43
Sprint
Bustin Stones - 23.50
Street Boss - 18.83
First Defence - 14.73
Rebellion - 12.14
In Summation - 11.33
Turf
Dancing Forever - 21.83
Champs Elysees - 17.63
Red Rocks - 16.38
Grand Couturier - 14.08
Spring House 12.83
Mile
Whatsthescript - 20.68
Ventura - 16.03
Daytona - 15.88
Kip Deville - 15.69
Monzante - 12.88
FM Turf
Mauralakana - 20.51
Black Mamba - 15.97
Pure Clan - 12.66
Wait A While - 12.52
Forever Together - 12.25
Thursday, July 24, 2008
TC Power Ranking
As most of the people who read this blog are aware I am quite an advocate of point systems. For years I've worked on and implement a point standings system know as the Thoroughbred Championship Rankings (TCR). The purpose of this system is to accurately assess the accomplishments of race horses and compile them into a single number. Fans can compare the numbers directly, it's the closest thing racing has to standings and if you look back over the historical data provided in the link you can see that the TCR does what it should. It very accurately assess' a horses accomplishments.
I have recently been working on another similar project and the first prototype is ready for release. A popular way of ranking teams in the major sports is this thing called power rankings. Essentially the idea behind power rankings is to find who the best teams currently are. Not necessarily who has the most wins or losses, although wins often accompany a high level of performance, but who is actually better. The TCR and all other point standings like it only assess the cumulative accomplishments. They tell you which has has done more, not which horse is better.
For instance many observers would say that Music Note is the best Three Year old Female in training. She has been brilliant lately and she handily defeated Proud Spell in their last meeting. However a point system like the TCR has Proud Spell (127.60) in first and Music Note in third (94.26). I don't think it's a case of inaccuracy on the part of the TCR point system. If the season ended today Proud Spell really has done more that is award worthy. I think it's just a case where it's not displaying the more brilliant horse as superior because it was never meant to do that.
Power Rankings are supposed to tell you who the best really are and I've just finished the first release of the new TC Power Rankings. The idea of this system is to identify the most brilliant, or the best horses in North America. Often brilliance and accomplishment will coincide. For instance Curlin and Big Brown are ranked #1 and #2 in both systems. But in the earlier case mentioned in the Three Year Old Female division Music Note (31.42) is first and Proud Spell (21.27) is back in second. Music Note is in fact the 9th ranked active horse in the nation. These numbers aren't just plucked out of thin air either. It's not a ranking based on my opinion or the polling of others. It's a statistically based system and I've included data going back to 1999 so you may view how the numbers look historically.
There even seems to be a correlation between TC Power Rankings and actual race results. Although it has not been fully explored it is worth noting that all eight winners of the traditional BC races in 2007 were among the top 4 TCPR ranked horses in those races. Big Brown was also ranked second at the time of the Kentucky Derby.
My plan for the TC Power Rankings for now is top keep a list of the top 10 active horses on the sidebar. Given my blogs current format I don't want to be listing all the divisional leaders like I do with the TCR but all the information in the spreadsheet will always be available via a link on the sidebar. Current divisional leaders include Curlin, Zenyatta, Big Brown, Music Note, Benny The Bull, Intangaroo, Dancing Forever and Wait A While.
I have recently been working on another similar project and the first prototype is ready for release. A popular way of ranking teams in the major sports is this thing called power rankings. Essentially the idea behind power rankings is to find who the best teams currently are. Not necessarily who has the most wins or losses, although wins often accompany a high level of performance, but who is actually better. The TCR and all other point standings like it only assess the cumulative accomplishments. They tell you which has has done more, not which horse is better.
For instance many observers would say that Music Note is the best Three Year old Female in training. She has been brilliant lately and she handily defeated Proud Spell in their last meeting. However a point system like the TCR has Proud Spell (127.60) in first and Music Note in third (94.26). I don't think it's a case of inaccuracy on the part of the TCR point system. If the season ended today Proud Spell really has done more that is award worthy. I think it's just a case where it's not displaying the more brilliant horse as superior because it was never meant to do that.
Power Rankings are supposed to tell you who the best really are and I've just finished the first release of the new TC Power Rankings. The idea of this system is to identify the most brilliant, or the best horses in North America. Often brilliance and accomplishment will coincide. For instance Curlin and Big Brown are ranked #1 and #2 in both systems. But in the earlier case mentioned in the Three Year Old Female division Music Note (31.42) is first and Proud Spell (21.27) is back in second. Music Note is in fact the 9th ranked active horse in the nation. These numbers aren't just plucked out of thin air either. It's not a ranking based on my opinion or the polling of others. It's a statistically based system and I've included data going back to 1999 so you may view how the numbers look historically.
There even seems to be a correlation between TC Power Rankings and actual race results. Although it has not been fully explored it is worth noting that all eight winners of the traditional BC races in 2007 were among the top 4 TCPR ranked horses in those races. Big Brown was also ranked second at the time of the Kentucky Derby.
My plan for the TC Power Rankings for now is top keep a list of the top 10 active horses on the sidebar. Given my blogs current format I don't want to be listing all the divisional leaders like I do with the TCR but all the information in the spreadsheet will always be available via a link on the sidebar. Current divisional leaders include Curlin, Zenyatta, Big Brown, Music Note, Benny The Bull, Intangaroo, Dancing Forever and Wait A While.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Standings
It's been a while since I've written about standings. Point Standings are something I believe in very strongly. I've spent years working on a point system that works and I really believe that the benefits would be huge for racing.
Think about it. We could have a presence in daily newspapers again around the country. Not with the tedious printing of race results like in the past but with complete standings - Overall and by division. The average sports fan could easily make themselves aware of the most currently accomplished horses.
For those who are already ardent followers it would help to quantify what they see on the track and help generate more interest in clashes conducted outside the limelight.
If the point system was also used as a part of year end award consideration then it would not only aid the award process but it would in turn encourage top horses to run more often. Does anyone think that IEAH, hungry for success and recognition, would give a completely healthy Kip Deville just four starts if the championship rested on earning points? The focus would go back to running races instead of waiting just to run on ESPN.
Qualification for the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup could be decided by the same process.
It simply makes too much sense to ignore. I encourage you to take a look at how the TCR is calculated and also review how that system would have worked over the last 9 years and is working currently. It makes sense people. Racing really needs to get on board.
Think about it. We could have a presence in daily newspapers again around the country. Not with the tedious printing of race results like in the past but with complete standings - Overall and by division. The average sports fan could easily make themselves aware of the most currently accomplished horses.
For those who are already ardent followers it would help to quantify what they see on the track and help generate more interest in clashes conducted outside the limelight.
If the point system was also used as a part of year end award consideration then it would not only aid the award process but it would in turn encourage top horses to run more often. Does anyone think that IEAH, hungry for success and recognition, would give a completely healthy Kip Deville just four starts if the championship rested on earning points? The focus would go back to running races instead of waiting just to run on ESPN.
Qualification for the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup could be decided by the same process.
It simply makes too much sense to ignore. I encourage you to take a look at how the TCR is calculated and also review how that system would have worked over the last 9 years and is working currently. It makes sense people. Racing really needs to get on board.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
TCR Awards 2007
The votes have been tallied and the final results tabulated. Curlin wins the TCR Horse of the Year by a substantial margin!
The TCR Awards are a unique feature to Kennedy's Corridor. The vision of the TCR Awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice.
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. These point standings are then combined with a fans vote at the end of the year to determine the champions.
For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as detailed results from the TCR Awards at this link. The TCR Award results will also be on display on the sidebar for the next week.
2007 TCR Award Winners
Horse Of The Year - Curlin
Older Male - Lawyer Ron
Older Female - Ginger Punch
Turf Male - English Channel
Turf Female - Precious Kitten
Male Sprinter - Midnight Lute
Female Sprinter - River's Prayer
Three Year Old Male - Curlin
Three Year Old Female - Rags To Riches
Two Year Old Male - War Pass
Two Year Old Female - Indian Blessing
No major surprises as all 11 award winners were also the top ranked horses in the TCR standings. All but one winner (River's Prayer) were also the top vote getter's in each category. The Turf Female Division was a contentious one but top scorer Precious Kitten also received the most votes from fans narrowly over Lahudood. She had a champions campaign and is a most deserving winner. River's Prayer finished first in the rankings and a narrow second in the voting and that was enough to hold off Dream Rush and Maryfield who both received a lot of support as well. In fact those three were separated by less than 2% in the voting. River's Prayer never lost in 2007 and she won on 3 different surfaces including a sound beating of Maryfield in the G-1 Princess Rooney.
I think this was yet another successful year for the TCR Awards as it continues to demonstrate that point systems despite the fears surrounding them, do come out with logical results. And that a well thought out approach in terms of voting guidelines, divisional guidelines could easily be adopted.
We look forward to an excellent 2008. Standings for the current year will be posted starting next week.
The TCR Awards are a unique feature to Kennedy's Corridor. The vision of the TCR Awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice.
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. These point standings are then combined with a fans vote at the end of the year to determine the champions.
For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as detailed results from the TCR Awards at this link. The TCR Award results will also be on display on the sidebar for the next week.
2007 TCR Award Winners
Horse Of The Year - Curlin
Older Male - Lawyer Ron
Older Female - Ginger Punch
Turf Male - English Channel
Turf Female - Precious Kitten
Male Sprinter - Midnight Lute
Female Sprinter - River's Prayer
Three Year Old Male - Curlin
Three Year Old Female - Rags To Riches
Two Year Old Male - War Pass
Two Year Old Female - Indian Blessing
No major surprises as all 11 award winners were also the top ranked horses in the TCR standings. All but one winner (River's Prayer) were also the top vote getter's in each category. The Turf Female Division was a contentious one but top scorer Precious Kitten also received the most votes from fans narrowly over Lahudood. She had a champions campaign and is a most deserving winner. River's Prayer finished first in the rankings and a narrow second in the voting and that was enough to hold off Dream Rush and Maryfield who both received a lot of support as well. In fact those three were separated by less than 2% in the voting. River's Prayer never lost in 2007 and she won on 3 different surfaces including a sound beating of Maryfield in the G-1 Princess Rooney.
I think this was yet another successful year for the TCR Awards as it continues to demonstrate that point systems despite the fears surrounding them, do come out with logical results. And that a well thought out approach in terms of voting guidelines, divisional guidelines could easily be adopted.
We look forward to an excellent 2008. Standings for the current year will be posted starting next week.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
World Rankings Reworked
I'm quite intrigued with rankings. Even before I got into creating my own point system I spent a lot of time perusing over all types of different rankings like the Timeform Rankings, Globeform, Racing Post Ratings, the Experimental Free Handicap and of course the IFHA World Thoroughbred Rankings. They are likely the most respected rankings anywhere in the world. Although America in general treats any world ranking system with skepticism bordering on derision this is definitely the one ranking that is best accepted.
America does not officially recognize a "Horse of the World" in any given year but unofficially the IFHA top ranked horse claims the title the world over.
All of these rankings are based on the Experimental Free Weight Handicap concept that you rate a horse according to the weight differential necessary to make two horses equal. So if your horse was rated 124 and mine 120 it means that in the opinion of the rankings my horse would have to carry 4 lbs less than yours in a race in order for it to be a fair contest.
The problem with this type of ranking is A) they're based solely on the opinions of an expert panel and B) they represent only what the handicappers assume to be the horses top effort. Accomplishments are never brought into the picture. It is simply an attempt to identify which horse is the best at their best. That is why you'll see a horse like Any Given Saturday listed below. He was by no means one of the 10 most accomplished horses in the World in 2007, but in the panels opinion his Haskell was one of the 10 best races of the year.
IFHA World Thoroughbred Ranking
1. Manduro (GER) 131 FR
2. Authorized (IRE) 129 GB
2. Curlin (USA) 129 USA
2. Dylan Thomas (IRE) 129 IRE
2. Invasor (ARG) 129 USA
6. Street Sense (USA) 126 USA
7. Admire Moon (JPN) 125 JPN
7. English Channel (USA) 125 USA
7. Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 125 IRE
10. Any Given Saturday (USA) 124 USA
10. Lawyer Ron (USA) 124 USA
10. Youmzain (IRE) 124 GB
I personally believe that accomplishments are more worthy of laud so I put my own TCR point system into use and tried to get a picture of who the top 10 most accomplished horses in the world were.
TCR World Overall Top 10
1. Dylan Thomas - 491.90 IRE
2. Curlin - 460.20 USA
3. English Channel - 334.60 USA
4. Miss Andretti - 315.80 AUS
5. Street Sense - 311.08 USA
6. Admire Moon - 309.00 JPN
7. Hard Spun - 292.08 USA
8. Ginger Punch - 288.38 USA
9. Manduro - 286.60 FR
10. Ramonti - 264.50 GB
Viva Pataca (256.96) and El Segundo (253.80) narrowly missed the top 10 representing Hong Kong and Australia respectively. A few will likely react to Dylan Thomas's name at the head of the list but this is based on accomplishments only and he did have quite the year. Manduro is ranked just 9th but injury halted his campaign. A win in the Arc (a race he would have been favored for) would have seen him climb to the top.
Just something to think about if you happen to have the same fascination with rankings as I.
America does not officially recognize a "Horse of the World" in any given year but unofficially the IFHA top ranked horse claims the title the world over.
All of these rankings are based on the Experimental Free Weight Handicap concept that you rate a horse according to the weight differential necessary to make two horses equal. So if your horse was rated 124 and mine 120 it means that in the opinion of the rankings my horse would have to carry 4 lbs less than yours in a race in order for it to be a fair contest.
The problem with this type of ranking is A) they're based solely on the opinions of an expert panel and B) they represent only what the handicappers assume to be the horses top effort. Accomplishments are never brought into the picture. It is simply an attempt to identify which horse is the best at their best. That is why you'll see a horse like Any Given Saturday listed below. He was by no means one of the 10 most accomplished horses in the World in 2007, but in the panels opinion his Haskell was one of the 10 best races of the year.
IFHA World Thoroughbred Ranking
1. Manduro (GER) 131 FR
2. Authorized (IRE) 129 GB
2. Curlin (USA) 129 USA
2. Dylan Thomas (IRE) 129 IRE
2. Invasor (ARG) 129 USA
6. Street Sense (USA) 126 USA
7. Admire Moon (JPN) 125 JPN
7. English Channel (USA) 125 USA
7. Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 125 IRE
10. Any Given Saturday (USA) 124 USA
10. Lawyer Ron (USA) 124 USA
10. Youmzain (IRE) 124 GB
I personally believe that accomplishments are more worthy of laud so I put my own TCR point system into use and tried to get a picture of who the top 10 most accomplished horses in the world were.
TCR World Overall Top 10
1. Dylan Thomas - 491.90 IRE
2. Curlin - 460.20 USA
3. English Channel - 334.60 USA
4. Miss Andretti - 315.80 AUS
5. Street Sense - 311.08 USA
6. Admire Moon - 309.00 JPN
7. Hard Spun - 292.08 USA
8. Ginger Punch - 288.38 USA
9. Manduro - 286.60 FR
10. Ramonti - 264.50 GB
Viva Pataca (256.96) and El Segundo (253.80) narrowly missed the top 10 representing Hong Kong and Australia respectively. A few will likely react to Dylan Thomas's name at the head of the list but this is based on accomplishments only and he did have quite the year. Manduro is ranked just 9th but injury halted his campaign. A win in the Arc (a race he would have been favored for) would have seen him climb to the top.
Just something to think about if you happen to have the same fascination with rankings as I.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
My Ballot
If you happened to miss my post from yesterday please visit this link to get apprised of the situation. Kennedy's Corridor is hosting the 2nd annual TCR Awards where the TCR points standings and your votes are combined to give us champions for the year. Unlike the Eclipse Awards these have a greater focus on accomplishments, well defined guidelines and of course fans are allowed to vote.
A few votes have trickled in but I thought I'd post my ballot as well as some of my thoughts and reasoning. You may or may not agree but feel free to chime in with a ballot of your own as well as some thoughts on the various divisions.
Horse of the Year
Curlin
English Channel
Street Sense
Ginger Punch
Hard Spun
This is basically the same order that the TCR points system had them ranked aside from Hard Spun over Ginger Punch. I think the greatest strength of the TCR is how it accurately ranks different horses from different divisions overall. Curlin is clearly Horse Of The Year and in my opinion English Channel was a clear second thanks to Street Sense's inability to hit the board on BC day. Hard Spun won the majority of his points and popularity for losing performances, he did have a great year but Ginger Punch deserves to be ranked ahead of him in my opinion.
Older Male (Dirt & All Weather)
Lawyer Ron
Midnight Lute
Lava Man
Awesome Gem
Student Council
This division was in shambles. Lawyer Ron is a slight choice over Midnight Lute for me. Invasor ran only twice and had enough points to be a finalist but he did not make the 3 starts minimum. Midnight Lute blew his chance to sweep this division as well as the Sprinter division when he lost the Cigar Mile. No one else stepped up and came fro Lawyer Ron. Corinthian missed out making it as a finalist largely due to the fact that the BC Dirt Mile was left ungraded by the AGSC. Still he wouldn't have made an impact anyway.
Older Female (Dirt & All Weather)
Ginger Punch
Hystericalady
Nashoba's Key
Miss Shop
Balance
Ginger Punch is a no-brainer, Hystericalady had her shot when she drew alongside in the BC Distaff but she couldn't get by that day and she fails to do so in the court of my opinion as well. Nashoba's Key didn't run enough on the main track and having never run on conventional dirt it was hard to rank her above the top two listed here. Balance and Miss Shop were both weak finalists in a division that took quite a long time for any shape to emerge.
Turf Male
English Channel
Kip Deville
After Market
Cloudy's Knight
Nobiz Like Showbiz
I have a soft spot for the old warrior Cloudy's Knight but I think the TCR had these Turf horses ranked just right. Tough luck for Jambalaya not to be included but he got injured at a bad time. Doctor Dino also would have been a finalist with one more American start. English Channel is a deserving winner though and was in my opinion the second best horse overall in 2007.
Turf Female
Precious Kitten
Lahudood
Nashoba's Key
Citronnade
Honey Ryder
I voted for Precious Kitten. She was narrowly the highest ranked horse with the points system but more than that she exemplified what I like to see in a champion. She raced 9 times on 6 tracks in 5 different states and was no worse than second in any race aside from the BC where she was taken to the outside rail by Simply Perfect. She won a pair of G-1's and faced all the principles of this division. She was by no means dominant but she was consistent, well campaigned and the most accomplished in the division. BC FM Turf winner Lahudood will take a ton of votes based on the way she finished the year but is a 5-3-1-0 season with 2 G-1 wins really enough? The point system didn't think so and had her ranked 4th. I personally thought that Lahudood deserved to be second ranked but not first. She actually accomplished more than Nashoba's Key did on the grass as many of Nashoba's points came on all weather surfaces. And her pair of G-1 wins easily overshadows what Citronnade was able to do. The biggest problem with Citronnade is that all of her wins came in the same form. She was the lone speed on a firm Californian track. She took only 1 G-1 race and while she did beat Price Tag and Vacare in that one her 4 G-2 wins were basically against nobodies. Honey Ryder does not have much of a shout to win this division in my opinion. You have to win more than just a single G-2 event to be a champ. She had 3 excellent runner up finishes but that's not enough.
Sprinter (All Surfaces)
Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Greg's Gold
Smokey Stover
Kelly's Landing
Midnight Lute wins in a walk over Idiot Proof in a finish reminiscent of the BC Sprint itself. The Lute was in another zone and nearly managed to take the top Older Male title. Talent Search earned enough TCR points to be a finalist but he failed to win a Graded Stakes so he misses out.
Female Sprinter (All Surfaces)
River's Prayer
Maryfield
Dream Rush
Pussycat Doll
Oprah Winney
River's Prayer was my top selection in the Female Sprinter division. I think she's being extremely undervalued. So much focus is going to Maryfield for her win in the BC FM Sprint but that race was not even given G-1 status and it was run in a horrendous slop. The only other races she competed in with credit was a G-2 on the Aqueduct inner and the Ballerina. One could argue that the Test was actually a tougher race than the Ballerina, if you use the form line through Baroness Thatcher. River's Prayer on the other hand won the same amount of G-1's, more graded stakes and she won the only head to head meeting with Maryfield. She was never beaten in 2007. She raced on 4 tracks and won on all three different surfaces. Injury denied her a shot at the BC but the balance of the rest of her campaign gives her the edge in my opinion. Dream Rush is the only other one with significant claims at the title. It's a shame that her only try against older mares came in the slop on BC Friday. I think she is much better than that race showed but it's tough to give her an award without even an open stakes placing when you have River's Prayer and Maryfield as alternatives. I think Dream Rush is the best horse of the three but she just didn't do quite enough to win this award.
3yo Male (All Surfaces)
Curlin
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Showbiz
Tiago
There was so much intrigue in this division all year long that it's almost shocking how straightforward the voting is once the year has ended. The BC Classic decided it all and Curlin was clearly the best. Although Hard Spun did beat Street Sense in his last two races Street Sense won the Derby and Travers while Hard Spun won the Kings Bishop and KY Cup Classic. This was the strongest 3yo crop in recent memory as Any Given Saturday, Daaher, Daytona, Red Giant and Idiot Proof all failed to make it as finalists.
3yo Female (All Surfaces)
Rags To Riches
Octave
Lady Joanne
Panty Raid
Dream Rush
This division was done and dusted in June. Rags To Riches became a star and her accomplishments in the first half of the year were so vast she was actually the #1 ranked horse overall for a few months. Injury prevented her from challenging for that title in earnest but she easily wins this one. Octave like always runs second to her. I voted for Lady Joanne above Panty Raid despite the Spinster stakes that saw the order reversed. I thought Lady Joanne overall had a more consistent campaign.
2yo Male (All Surfaces)
War Pass
Kodiak Kowboy
Salute The Sarge
Into Mischief
Wicked Style
War Pass canters out an easy winner. Pyro is a notable absentee from the finalists list. He did have enough points to be a finalist but never managed to win a stakes race so he failed to qualify. Kodiak Kowboy is a clear second. War Pass ought to be unanimous.
2yo Female (All Surfaces)
Indian Blessing
Country Star
Proud Spell
Pure Clan
Rated Fiesty
Not much to say here. I think this is order is basically without controversy. Rated Fiesty is likely viewed by some as an odd ball finalist but she was undefeated and looked extremely good in those races. We just find it hard to remember 2yo's that did not last the summer.
A few votes have trickled in but I thought I'd post my ballot as well as some of my thoughts and reasoning. You may or may not agree but feel free to chime in with a ballot of your own as well as some thoughts on the various divisions.
Horse of the Year
Curlin
English Channel
Street Sense
Ginger Punch
Hard Spun
This is basically the same order that the TCR points system had them ranked aside from Hard Spun over Ginger Punch. I think the greatest strength of the TCR is how it accurately ranks different horses from different divisions overall. Curlin is clearly Horse Of The Year and in my opinion English Channel was a clear second thanks to Street Sense's inability to hit the board on BC day. Hard Spun won the majority of his points and popularity for losing performances, he did have a great year but Ginger Punch deserves to be ranked ahead of him in my opinion.
Older Male (Dirt & All Weather)
Lawyer Ron
Midnight Lute
Lava Man
Awesome Gem
Student Council
This division was in shambles. Lawyer Ron is a slight choice over Midnight Lute for me. Invasor ran only twice and had enough points to be a finalist but he did not make the 3 starts minimum. Midnight Lute blew his chance to sweep this division as well as the Sprinter division when he lost the Cigar Mile. No one else stepped up and came fro Lawyer Ron. Corinthian missed out making it as a finalist largely due to the fact that the BC Dirt Mile was left ungraded by the AGSC. Still he wouldn't have made an impact anyway.
Older Female (Dirt & All Weather)
Ginger Punch
Hystericalady
Nashoba's Key
Miss Shop
Balance
Ginger Punch is a no-brainer, Hystericalady had her shot when she drew alongside in the BC Distaff but she couldn't get by that day and she fails to do so in the court of my opinion as well. Nashoba's Key didn't run enough on the main track and having never run on conventional dirt it was hard to rank her above the top two listed here. Balance and Miss Shop were both weak finalists in a division that took quite a long time for any shape to emerge.
Turf Male
English Channel
Kip Deville
After Market
Cloudy's Knight
Nobiz Like Showbiz
I have a soft spot for the old warrior Cloudy's Knight but I think the TCR had these Turf horses ranked just right. Tough luck for Jambalaya not to be included but he got injured at a bad time. Doctor Dino also would have been a finalist with one more American start. English Channel is a deserving winner though and was in my opinion the second best horse overall in 2007.
Turf Female
Precious Kitten
Lahudood
Nashoba's Key
Citronnade
Honey Ryder
I voted for Precious Kitten. She was narrowly the highest ranked horse with the points system but more than that she exemplified what I like to see in a champion. She raced 9 times on 6 tracks in 5 different states and was no worse than second in any race aside from the BC where she was taken to the outside rail by Simply Perfect. She won a pair of G-1's and faced all the principles of this division. She was by no means dominant but she was consistent, well campaigned and the most accomplished in the division. BC FM Turf winner Lahudood will take a ton of votes based on the way she finished the year but is a 5-3-1-0 season with 2 G-1 wins really enough? The point system didn't think so and had her ranked 4th. I personally thought that Lahudood deserved to be second ranked but not first. She actually accomplished more than Nashoba's Key did on the grass as many of Nashoba's points came on all weather surfaces. And her pair of G-1 wins easily overshadows what Citronnade was able to do. The biggest problem with Citronnade is that all of her wins came in the same form. She was the lone speed on a firm Californian track. She took only 1 G-1 race and while she did beat Price Tag and Vacare in that one her 4 G-2 wins were basically against nobodies. Honey Ryder does not have much of a shout to win this division in my opinion. You have to win more than just a single G-2 event to be a champ. She had 3 excellent runner up finishes but that's not enough.
Sprinter (All Surfaces)
Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Greg's Gold
Smokey Stover
Kelly's Landing
Midnight Lute wins in a walk over Idiot Proof in a finish reminiscent of the BC Sprint itself. The Lute was in another zone and nearly managed to take the top Older Male title. Talent Search earned enough TCR points to be a finalist but he failed to win a Graded Stakes so he misses out.
Female Sprinter (All Surfaces)
River's Prayer
Maryfield
Dream Rush
Pussycat Doll
Oprah Winney
River's Prayer was my top selection in the Female Sprinter division. I think she's being extremely undervalued. So much focus is going to Maryfield for her win in the BC FM Sprint but that race was not even given G-1 status and it was run in a horrendous slop. The only other races she competed in with credit was a G-2 on the Aqueduct inner and the Ballerina. One could argue that the Test was actually a tougher race than the Ballerina, if you use the form line through Baroness Thatcher. River's Prayer on the other hand won the same amount of G-1's, more graded stakes and she won the only head to head meeting with Maryfield. She was never beaten in 2007. She raced on 4 tracks and won on all three different surfaces. Injury denied her a shot at the BC but the balance of the rest of her campaign gives her the edge in my opinion. Dream Rush is the only other one with significant claims at the title. It's a shame that her only try against older mares came in the slop on BC Friday. I think she is much better than that race showed but it's tough to give her an award without even an open stakes placing when you have River's Prayer and Maryfield as alternatives. I think Dream Rush is the best horse of the three but she just didn't do quite enough to win this award.
3yo Male (All Surfaces)
Curlin
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Showbiz
Tiago
There was so much intrigue in this division all year long that it's almost shocking how straightforward the voting is once the year has ended. The BC Classic decided it all and Curlin was clearly the best. Although Hard Spun did beat Street Sense in his last two races Street Sense won the Derby and Travers while Hard Spun won the Kings Bishop and KY Cup Classic. This was the strongest 3yo crop in recent memory as Any Given Saturday, Daaher, Daytona, Red Giant and Idiot Proof all failed to make it as finalists.
3yo Female (All Surfaces)
Rags To Riches
Octave
Lady Joanne
Panty Raid
Dream Rush
This division was done and dusted in June. Rags To Riches became a star and her accomplishments in the first half of the year were so vast she was actually the #1 ranked horse overall for a few months. Injury prevented her from challenging for that title in earnest but she easily wins this one. Octave like always runs second to her. I voted for Lady Joanne above Panty Raid despite the Spinster stakes that saw the order reversed. I thought Lady Joanne overall had a more consistent campaign.
2yo Male (All Surfaces)
War Pass
Kodiak Kowboy
Salute The Sarge
Into Mischief
Wicked Style
War Pass canters out an easy winner. Pyro is a notable absentee from the finalists list. He did have enough points to be a finalist but never managed to win a stakes race so he failed to qualify. Kodiak Kowboy is a clear second. War Pass ought to be unanimous.
2yo Female (All Surfaces)
Indian Blessing
Country Star
Proud Spell
Pure Clan
Rated Fiesty
Not much to say here. I think this is order is basically without controversy. Rated Fiesty is likely viewed by some as an odd ball finalist but she was undefeated and looked extremely good in those races. We just find it hard to remember 2yo's that did not last the summer.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
2nd Annual TCR Awards
The TCR Awards are a feature unique to this blog. The vision of the TCR awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice. We need your votes to help decide the rightful year-end champions.
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as last years TCR Award results at this link.
Now is the chance for us, the fans of Thoroughbred racing, to vote on the horses that we feel were the most accomplished and thus the most deserving of year end recognition.
Voting is easy. Below you will find a list of the top TCR ranked horses in each division along with their point totals for the year. Simply take all 5 horses and rank them in the exact order of your preference. You may either post them as a comment, or send me your votes via personal email (canken19@hotmail.com).
Please familiarize yourself with these horses and their accomplishments in 2007 prior to voting. A link to the DRF Past Performances for the contenders for each division can be found here.
You do not need to vote for all 10 awards. You can simply vote for one division if you wish. However in order to be valid a vote must include all 5 of the finalists ranked in the exact order of your preference. Voting will close at midnight Jan 20th and the results will be posted on Jan 21st.
Votes will account for 50% of the final total. The final 2007 TCR standings will account for the other 50% of the consideration. The award will be given to the horse that has the highest combined point total and votes received.
All award finalists have met the following criteria:
- The finalist must have made three starts minimum in America.
- The finalist must meet the age and gender requirements of the division to be eligible.
- The finalist must have won a graded stakes in current season.
- The finalist must have run three races within the division in order to be eligible for that division.
- The finalist must have finished in the top five in the TCR after the above filters have been applied.
Thank you for supporting this project!
Here are the 2007 Finalists and their respective TCR scores.
Horse of the Year
Curlin - 460.20
English Channel - 339.40
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Ginger Punch - 291.38
Older Male (Dirt & All Weather)
Lawyer Ron - 255.60
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Lava Man - 205.72
Student Council - 168.00
Awesome Gem - 163.60
Older Female (Dirt & All Weather)
Ginger Punch - 291.38
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Hystericalady - 183.50
Miss Shop - 143.74
Balance - 137.60
Turf Male
English Channel - 339.40
Kip Deville - 242.80
After Market - 225.70
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Turf Female
Precious Kitten - 214.52
Citronnade - 212.10
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Lahudood - 168.38
Honey Ryder - 133.30
Sprinter (All Surfaces)
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Greg's Gold - 151.34
Idiot Proof - 141.11
Smokey Stover - 116.62
Kelly's Landing - 113.04
Female Sprinter (All Surfaces)
River's Prayer - 137.02
Dream Rush - 118.30
Maryfield - 105.78
Pussycat Doll - 100.68
Oprah Winney - 97.56
3yo Male (All Surfaces)
Curlin - 460.20
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Tiago - 190.08
3yo Female (All Surfaces)
Rags To Riches - 232.30
Octave - 177.50
Panty Raid - 152.46
Lady Joanne - 122.20
Dream Rush - 118.30
2yo Male (All Surfaces)
War Pass - 167.22
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Salute The Sarge - 76.02
Wicked Style - 71.08
Into Mischief - 61.36
2yo Female (All Surfaces)
Indian Blessing - 125.14
Country Star - 73.88
Pure Clan - 62.78
Proud Spell - 56.55
Rated Fiesty - 44.24
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as last years TCR Award results at this link.
Now is the chance for us, the fans of Thoroughbred racing, to vote on the horses that we feel were the most accomplished and thus the most deserving of year end recognition.
Voting is easy. Below you will find a list of the top TCR ranked horses in each division along with their point totals for the year. Simply take all 5 horses and rank them in the exact order of your preference. You may either post them as a comment, or send me your votes via personal email (canken19@hotmail.com).
Please familiarize yourself with these horses and their accomplishments in 2007 prior to voting. A link to the DRF Past Performances for the contenders for each division can be found here.
You do not need to vote for all 10 awards. You can simply vote for one division if you wish. However in order to be valid a vote must include all 5 of the finalists ranked in the exact order of your preference. Voting will close at midnight Jan 20th and the results will be posted on Jan 21st.
Votes will account for 50% of the final total. The final 2007 TCR standings will account for the other 50% of the consideration. The award will be given to the horse that has the highest combined point total and votes received.
All award finalists have met the following criteria:
- The finalist must have made three starts minimum in America.
- The finalist must meet the age and gender requirements of the division to be eligible.
- The finalist must have won a graded stakes in current season.
- The finalist must have run three races within the division in order to be eligible for that division.
- The finalist must have finished in the top five in the TCR after the above filters have been applied.
Thank you for supporting this project!
Here are the 2007 Finalists and their respective TCR scores.
Horse of the Year
Curlin - 460.20
English Channel - 339.40
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Ginger Punch - 291.38
Older Male (Dirt & All Weather)
Lawyer Ron - 255.60
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Lava Man - 205.72
Student Council - 168.00
Awesome Gem - 163.60
Older Female (Dirt & All Weather)
Ginger Punch - 291.38
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Hystericalady - 183.50
Miss Shop - 143.74
Balance - 137.60
Turf Male
English Channel - 339.40
Kip Deville - 242.80
After Market - 225.70
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Turf Female
Precious Kitten - 214.52
Citronnade - 212.10
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Lahudood - 168.38
Honey Ryder - 133.30
Sprinter (All Surfaces)
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Greg's Gold - 151.34
Idiot Proof - 141.11
Smokey Stover - 116.62
Kelly's Landing - 113.04
Female Sprinter (All Surfaces)
River's Prayer - 137.02
Dream Rush - 118.30
Maryfield - 105.78
Pussycat Doll - 100.68
Oprah Winney - 97.56
3yo Male (All Surfaces)
Curlin - 460.20
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Tiago - 190.08
3yo Female (All Surfaces)
Rags To Riches - 232.30
Octave - 177.50
Panty Raid - 152.46
Lady Joanne - 122.20
Dream Rush - 118.30
2yo Male (All Surfaces)
War Pass - 167.22
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Salute The Sarge - 76.02
Wicked Style - 71.08
Into Mischief - 61.36
2yo Female (All Surfaces)
Indian Blessing - 125.14
Country Star - 73.88
Pure Clan - 62.78
Proud Spell - 56.55
Rated Fiesty - 44.24
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Finer Points
For the second year in a row we take off our hats to a lady, and specifically a young lady. Sealy Hill was named Horse of The Year just one year after Arravale won it as a 3yo filly as well. Sealy Hill fully deserved the award in my opinion. Cloudy's Knight did have a higher TCR score but only just and Sealy hill was definitely more representative of the Canadian racing year. Cloudy's Knight made the minimum amount of starts but was not really Canadian.
The TCR had another decent year in terms of predictive accuracy. It did not match last years performance of 9 of the 10 winners but all the champions this year were ranked at least second by the TCR in their division.
Horse of the Year: Sealy Hill (2nd)
Older Male: True Metropolitan (1st)
Older Female: Financingavailable (2nd)
Turf Male: Cloudy's Knight (1st)
Turf Female: Sealy Hill (1st)
Sprinter: Financingavailable (2nd)
3yo Colt: Alezzandro (1st)
3yo Filly: Sealy Hill (1st)
2yo Colt: Kodiak Kowboy (1st)
2yo Filly: Dancing Allstar (2nd)
I think the most interesting result of the Sovereign Awards was that Leonnatus Anteas did not win the 3yo award. Instead it went to Alezzandro who was the top ranked TCR horse for that division and definitely had a better record this season. Leonnatus Anteas, though, was favored to win the award because of the general feeling that he is the best horse at Woodbine and he finished the year very strongly. I was pleasantly surprised that the voters looked past the reputations and got the right horse.
I think it's a shame that Monashee did not manage an award but more credence will always be given to the races at Woodbine and she flopped badly in her only try in Toronto. Western horses are getting better and better and if things continue as they are I'll bet we see some champions come from the west without having to prove themselves at Woodbine.
The TCR had another decent year in terms of predictive accuracy. It did not match last years performance of 9 of the 10 winners but all the champions this year were ranked at least second by the TCR in their division.
Horse of the Year: Sealy Hill (2nd)
Older Male: True Metropolitan (1st)
Older Female: Financingavailable (2nd)
Turf Male: Cloudy's Knight (1st)
Turf Female: Sealy Hill (1st)
Sprinter: Financingavailable (2nd)
3yo Colt: Alezzandro (1st)
3yo Filly: Sealy Hill (1st)
2yo Colt: Kodiak Kowboy (1st)
2yo Filly: Dancing Allstar (2nd)
I think the most interesting result of the Sovereign Awards was that Leonnatus Anteas did not win the 3yo award. Instead it went to Alezzandro who was the top ranked TCR horse for that division and definitely had a better record this season. Leonnatus Anteas, though, was favored to win the award because of the general feeling that he is the best horse at Woodbine and he finished the year very strongly. I was pleasantly surprised that the voters looked past the reputations and got the right horse.
I think it's a shame that Monashee did not manage an award but more credence will always be given to the races at Woodbine and she flopped badly in her only try in Toronto. Western horses are getting better and better and if things continue as they are I'll bet we see some champions come from the west without having to prove themselves at Woodbine.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Sovereign Awards
Below I have listed the TCR rankings for the Canadian racing season. One of the advantages of the TCR is that it can be used in any context. It's not tailored to America only. The scores are on average much lower because there are a dearth of graded stakes races in Canada. And not only that but a good amount of the major races are restricted to Canadian-breds, thus they are subject to further reduction. I have given unofficial championship status to certain ungraded Canadian races like the Queen's Plate. Simply because that more accurately assesses the value of those races.
The way the TCR system is recommended to be used is to have the points standings be just 50% of the final consideration. The other 50% would be decided by vote. So the #1 ranked horse in every division would not necessarily be the Canadian TCR award winner. We would have to conduct a vote to determine that. However the rankings have proven to be fairly accurate in the past. Last year's Sovereign Awards saw 9 of the 10 winners ranked a top their respective TCR division.
Overall Top 10 (Horse Of The Year)
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Alezzandro -100.58
Monashee - 88.52
Eccentric - 88.50
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Mike Fox - 83.98
Older Male
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Test Boy - 59.75
Arthurlooksgood - 53.86
Car Keys - 53.04
Judiths Wild Rush - 45.56
Older Female
Monashee - 88.52
Financingavailable - 63.88
She's Italian - 51.58
Arden Belle - 48.56
She's Indy Money - 48.28
Turf Male
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
Eccentric - 88.50
Marchfield - 76.90
Turf Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Essential Edge - 50.70
You Will Love Me - 31.86
The Niagara Queen - 31.30
Silky Smooth - 30.62
Sprinter
Bear Now - 74.08
Financingavailable - 63.88
Just Rushing - 58.28
She's Italian - 51.58
She's Indy Money - 48.28
3yo Male
Alezzandro - 100.58
Mike Fox - 83.98
Marchfield - 76.90
Footprint - 61.02
Jiggs Coz - 59.34
3yo Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Bear Now - 74.08
Dance To My Tune - 44.94
Saskawea - 44.42
Alpine Garden - 42.17
2yo Male
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Deputiformer - 45.80
Mikayla's Baby - 45.56
Bear Holiday - 38.74
Kesagami - 36.46
2yo Female
Littlemiss Allison - 45.18
Dancing Allstar - 34.86
Officer Cherrie - 24.20
Mrs. Began - 21.88
Victory Romance - 20.44
*Ineligible for voting consideration.
The awards are held later this week. It will be interesting to see how accurate the TCR is this year. The most interesting discrepancy is the fact that Leonnatus Anteas is not ranked among the top 5 for 3yo's. He achieved just 47.84 because he skipped the Canadian Triple Crown and only had a single G-3 win and a G-3 placing to his credit. Although I agree with those who feel that he is the best horse on the grounds I don't think his accomplishments merit a championship. I think his stablemate Alezzandro is a far better candidate.
Sealy Hill is ranked second overall but I would probably vote for her as Horse Of The Year. Cloudy's Knight ran very well this year as well but Sealy Hill is all Canadian and she managed wins on two surfaces as well as sweeping the Triple Tiara. I think she is the most deserving of Horse of the Year.
The way the TCR system is recommended to be used is to have the points standings be just 50% of the final consideration. The other 50% would be decided by vote. So the #1 ranked horse in every division would not necessarily be the Canadian TCR award winner. We would have to conduct a vote to determine that. However the rankings have proven to be fairly accurate in the past. Last year's Sovereign Awards saw 9 of the 10 winners ranked a top their respective TCR division.
Overall Top 10 (Horse Of The Year)
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Alezzandro -100.58
Monashee - 88.52
Eccentric - 88.50
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Mike Fox - 83.98
Older Male
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Test Boy - 59.75
Arthurlooksgood - 53.86
Car Keys - 53.04
Judiths Wild Rush - 45.56
Older Female
Monashee - 88.52
Financingavailable - 63.88
She's Italian - 51.58
Arden Belle - 48.56
She's Indy Money - 48.28
Turf Male
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
Eccentric - 88.50
Marchfield - 76.90
Turf Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Essential Edge - 50.70
You Will Love Me - 31.86
The Niagara Queen - 31.30
Silky Smooth - 30.62
Sprinter
Bear Now - 74.08
Financingavailable - 63.88
Just Rushing - 58.28
She's Italian - 51.58
She's Indy Money - 48.28
3yo Male
Alezzandro - 100.58
Mike Fox - 83.98
Marchfield - 76.90
Footprint - 61.02
Jiggs Coz - 59.34
3yo Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Bear Now - 74.08
Dance To My Tune - 44.94
Saskawea - 44.42
Alpine Garden - 42.17
2yo Male
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Deputiformer - 45.80
Mikayla's Baby - 45.56
Bear Holiday - 38.74
Kesagami - 36.46
2yo Female
Littlemiss Allison - 45.18
Dancing Allstar - 34.86
Officer Cherrie - 24.20
Mrs. Began - 21.88
Victory Romance - 20.44
*Ineligible for voting consideration.
The awards are held later this week. It will be interesting to see how accurate the TCR is this year. The most interesting discrepancy is the fact that Leonnatus Anteas is not ranked among the top 5 for 3yo's. He achieved just 47.84 because he skipped the Canadian Triple Crown and only had a single G-3 win and a G-3 placing to his credit. Although I agree with those who feel that he is the best horse on the grounds I don't think his accomplishments merit a championship. I think his stablemate Alezzandro is a far better candidate.
Sealy Hill is ranked second overall but I would probably vote for her as Horse Of The Year. Cloudy's Knight ran very well this year as well but Sealy Hill is all Canadian and she managed wins on two surfaces as well as sweeping the Triple Tiara. I think she is the most deserving of Horse of the Year.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
TCR Accountability - Part 1
For those of you who don't know the TCR (Thoroughbred Championship Rankings) is a project I've been working on for three years now. The stated goal is to "accurately assess the accomplishments of horses and assemble them into rankings that could be used as a sort of pro-tem standings that fans could easily follow during the year." You can see how the TCR has performed since 1999 by clicking on this link or visiting the ever present link on the sidebar.
One could say it's sort of like a speed figure. A speed figure tries to take all the factors in a particular race and boil them down to one number that you can compare universally. The TCR tries to take the accomplishments of a given horse and make it into one number that can be compared with others. Accomplishments should not be the sole determinant of year end awards just like the highest speed figure does not make a horse the definite race winner but I do believe that they should form a large part of the consideration. Once the year is over Kennedy's Corridor will once again host the TCR Awards where the rankings and votes are given 50% weight in determining the final outcome. Your votes will be much appreciated.
The emphasis I've tried to put on this system is one of accuracy. I suppose I'm kind of a perfectionist so accuracy is important to me. When your goal is accuracy it becomes necessary to evaluate your work to see if the goal is being realized. I don't do it often in open, written, form like this but I'm going to try and evaluate the accuracy and performance of the TCR this year.
The TCR takes more factors into account than simply placings in graded stakes. Earnings, weight given, ungraded races and winning streaks are part of the equation that leads to the final number. One of the real strengths of the system is that all divisions can be compared side by side because of the reduction scale that is in place. A G-1 for older males is worth more than a G-1 for 2yo females. Those divisions are the high and low ends of the scale and every division is reduced somewhere between those levels. All of these factors are not exclusive to American racing so from time to time you'll see some rankings from Canada and Europe, as data and my free time allow.
Divisional breakdowns
2yo Female
Indian Blessing - 125.14
Pure Clan - 62.78
Proud Spell - 56.55
Rated Fiesty - 44.24
Country Star - 38.88
I think the top 5 ranked horses in this division represent an accurate interpretation. Rated Fiesty stays on the list thanks to her early stakes wins and the undefeated bonus. The undefeated bonus is something I'm looking at altering for next year. I think it is valuable to include but I have thought about reducing the bonus by the same percentage that the races for this division are reduced. In other words an undefeated season as a 2yo Female should not count for as much as an undefeated season for an Older Male because the latter accomplishment is far more difficult. If the bonus were to be altered as suggested Rated Fiesty would still be in the top 5 but less than a point above Set Play, Cry And Catch Me and A To The Croft in 6th, 7th and 8th. Country Star would move to 4th and Proud Spell would overtake Pure Clan for second. That order I think would still be viewed as generally accurate, perhaps more so. The TCR gets an A in this division.
2yo Male
War Pass - 167.22
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Salute The Sarge - 76.02
Wicked Style - 71.08
Pyro - 61.65
The undefeated bonus does not really make a difference to this division at all. War Pass takes it in a romp no matter what and is the second highest rated 2yo since 1999. Only Johannesburg managed a higher rating as a juvenile. Many people would put Court Vision (51.59, 7th ranked) in the top 5 and horses like Salute the Sarge and Wicked Style could be dropped without any outcry but running in G-1 events is key for 2yo's where very few races are actually contested. Making the most from your limited starts is necessary and some unheralded horses will make the list if they consistently run and place in high quality races. I'd give the TCR a B grade in this division.
3yo Female
Rags To Riches - 232.30
Octave - 177.50
Panty Raid - 152.46
Lady Joanne - 122.20
Dream Rush - 118.30
I think this division is 100% accurate at this present time. Not only are the top 5 all there but I think they're in the specific order they should be in. A+
3yo Male
Curlin - 460.20
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Tiago - 190.08
Curlin and Street Sense were in direct competition all year long for this title and the overall lead. Street Sense held it until the Belmont then he regained it over the summer and held a slight advantage going into the Breeders Cup. The gap between them looks wide now because Street Sense did not earn any points in the BC while for Curlin it was the biggest race of his career. Hard Spun was behind those two all year and only really closed the gap on Street Sense in the Breeders Cup. Nobiz Like Showbiz and Tiago were the best of the rest with Any Given Saturday (166.02) in 6th. Once again I think this is basically accurate. A-
Female Sprinter
River's Prayer - 137.02
Dream Rush - 118.30
Maryfield - 105.78
Pussycat Doll - 100.68
Oprah Winney - 87.94
Here is where we might get some controversy. The undefeated bonus comes into play again and helps propel River's Prayer to the top of this division. Even with a reduced bonus she would still be on top. But the biggest determinant is the fact that the BC Filly and Mare Sprint was not a G-1 and was not given Championship status by the TCR. So essentially it was graded like a listed stakes race. The Graded Stakes committee also thought it was a listed stakes race because they refused to give it a grade. However functionally it was sort of a championship race, however the other two new BC races effectively weren't. So perhaps this is more a problem with the AGSC and the Breeders Cup rather than the TCR. I follow their lead and for this year it may or may not mean skewed results. River's Prayer did actually have a great year. C
Male Sprinter
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Idiot Proof - 141.11
Greg's Gold - 123.52
Talent Search - 122.80
Smokey Stover - 116.62
For a division that took so long to take shape I think it worked out very well. For so long there was no clear leader in this division and no one seemed to be running good consistent races at a high level, so it was won by just two instances of brilliance from Midnight Lute. That was enough to carry the day for him and I think rightly so. A+
One could say it's sort of like a speed figure. A speed figure tries to take all the factors in a particular race and boil them down to one number that you can compare universally. The TCR tries to take the accomplishments of a given horse and make it into one number that can be compared with others. Accomplishments should not be the sole determinant of year end awards just like the highest speed figure does not make a horse the definite race winner but I do believe that they should form a large part of the consideration. Once the year is over Kennedy's Corridor will once again host the TCR Awards where the rankings and votes are given 50% weight in determining the final outcome. Your votes will be much appreciated.
The emphasis I've tried to put on this system is one of accuracy. I suppose I'm kind of a perfectionist so accuracy is important to me. When your goal is accuracy it becomes necessary to evaluate your work to see if the goal is being realized. I don't do it often in open, written, form like this but I'm going to try and evaluate the accuracy and performance of the TCR this year.
The TCR takes more factors into account than simply placings in graded stakes. Earnings, weight given, ungraded races and winning streaks are part of the equation that leads to the final number. One of the real strengths of the system is that all divisions can be compared side by side because of the reduction scale that is in place. A G-1 for older males is worth more than a G-1 for 2yo females. Those divisions are the high and low ends of the scale and every division is reduced somewhere between those levels. All of these factors are not exclusive to American racing so from time to time you'll see some rankings from Canada and Europe, as data and my free time allow.
Divisional breakdowns
2yo Female
Indian Blessing - 125.14
Pure Clan - 62.78
Proud Spell - 56.55
Rated Fiesty - 44.24
Country Star - 38.88
I think the top 5 ranked horses in this division represent an accurate interpretation. Rated Fiesty stays on the list thanks to her early stakes wins and the undefeated bonus. The undefeated bonus is something I'm looking at altering for next year. I think it is valuable to include but I have thought about reducing the bonus by the same percentage that the races for this division are reduced. In other words an undefeated season as a 2yo Female should not count for as much as an undefeated season for an Older Male because the latter accomplishment is far more difficult. If the bonus were to be altered as suggested Rated Fiesty would still be in the top 5 but less than a point above Set Play, Cry And Catch Me and A To The Croft in 6th, 7th and 8th. Country Star would move to 4th and Proud Spell would overtake Pure Clan for second. That order I think would still be viewed as generally accurate, perhaps more so. The TCR gets an A in this division.
2yo Male
War Pass - 167.22
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Salute The Sarge - 76.02
Wicked Style - 71.08
Pyro - 61.65
The undefeated bonus does not really make a difference to this division at all. War Pass takes it in a romp no matter what and is the second highest rated 2yo since 1999. Only Johannesburg managed a higher rating as a juvenile. Many people would put Court Vision (51.59, 7th ranked) in the top 5 and horses like Salute the Sarge and Wicked Style could be dropped without any outcry but running in G-1 events is key for 2yo's where very few races are actually contested. Making the most from your limited starts is necessary and some unheralded horses will make the list if they consistently run and place in high quality races. I'd give the TCR a B grade in this division.
3yo Female
Rags To Riches - 232.30
Octave - 177.50
Panty Raid - 152.46
Lady Joanne - 122.20
Dream Rush - 118.30
I think this division is 100% accurate at this present time. Not only are the top 5 all there but I think they're in the specific order they should be in. A+
3yo Male
Curlin - 460.20
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Tiago - 190.08
Curlin and Street Sense were in direct competition all year long for this title and the overall lead. Street Sense held it until the Belmont then he regained it over the summer and held a slight advantage going into the Breeders Cup. The gap between them looks wide now because Street Sense did not earn any points in the BC while for Curlin it was the biggest race of his career. Hard Spun was behind those two all year and only really closed the gap on Street Sense in the Breeders Cup. Nobiz Like Showbiz and Tiago were the best of the rest with Any Given Saturday (166.02) in 6th. Once again I think this is basically accurate. A-
Female Sprinter
River's Prayer - 137.02
Dream Rush - 118.30
Maryfield - 105.78
Pussycat Doll - 100.68
Oprah Winney - 87.94
Here is where we might get some controversy. The undefeated bonus comes into play again and helps propel River's Prayer to the top of this division. Even with a reduced bonus she would still be on top. But the biggest determinant is the fact that the BC Filly and Mare Sprint was not a G-1 and was not given Championship status by the TCR. So essentially it was graded like a listed stakes race. The Graded Stakes committee also thought it was a listed stakes race because they refused to give it a grade. However functionally it was sort of a championship race, however the other two new BC races effectively weren't. So perhaps this is more a problem with the AGSC and the Breeders Cup rather than the TCR. I follow their lead and for this year it may or may not mean skewed results. River's Prayer did actually have a great year. C
Male Sprinter
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Idiot Proof - 141.11
Greg's Gold - 123.52
Talent Search - 122.80
Smokey Stover - 116.62
For a division that took so long to take shape I think it worked out very well. For so long there was no clear leader in this division and no one seemed to be running good consistent races at a high level, so it was won by just two instances of brilliance from Midnight Lute. That was enough to carry the day for him and I think rightly so. A+
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