Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf

This race presents yet another mouth watering dilemma. Ouija Board against Wait A While with Film Maker and Honey Ryder as the supporting cast. I must admit that I am slightly apprehensive about this result. I believe Wait A While to be the best American based Turf filly since maybe Flawlessly. This is will be her first real acid test, however I cannot put all my weight behind her. The horses entering the Filly and Mare Turf with the last highest Beyer figure has never won the race. They have never even finished in the money. Wait A While is thus not among the qualifiers for my profile of a winner project which selects 75% winners at the Breeders Cup. However that does means that its wrong at least twice per Breeders Cup and I may just hope that it is in this case. Wait A While is fantastic, and her push button acceleration may give her the edge on Ouija Board who will gear up from further back. I also don’t think that Ouija Board is necessarily any better than she was years ago and Film Maker was never her decided inferior during that time. Ouija Board in fact is coming off perhaps her most inconsistent season. I’m not sure that’d I’d use her as an alternative to Wait A While. Film Maker on the other hand is a horse I would use. She has been a solid, consistent performer all her career and this has been her best year yet. She comes in much better form that she has in any other year and is very dangerous here, she will be my value alternative in a race where I feel class will dominate. One could get fancy looking for longshots but I really think that the top 4 are better than the rest by a good distance and Film Maker is the only value of the lot. The distance is Honey Ryder’s specialty but I think she’s going to be the clear third choice and I trust her much less than the others. Dancing Edie and My Typhoon should vie for the early pace. Which should prevent anyone stealing it. I can expect that Wait A While will be stalking them on the outside. There will be a good deal of pressure on John Velasquez to give her a clean trip so I think we will most likely see her getting the “favorites trip” about 4 paths wide near the pace. But her will be wary that it is her first time going this distance and he wont want to go too early. Film Maker should be tracking Wait A While, Honey Ryder should be tracking Film Maker and Ouija Board will be doing her own thing well off the pace. I would imagine that Velasquez will try to finish the race on the turn as he’s done in every start with her. Make Ouija Board come through traffic and hopefully by that time the race will already be over. But I hope for value's sake that Wait A While just finds the distance or the pace a shade too strong and is worn down in the final strides by Film Maker. Having both those horses in the exacta would thrill me.

1) Film Maker
2) Wait A While
3) Ouija Board