BC Mile

I decided to go out of order and skip the sprint. That's because I think it is the one race where post positions can make a huge difference. The inside 3 is a terrible place to be, especially for speed horses and I'm going to wait to see where the speed is drawn.

The BC Mile race is generally regarded as a crapshoot like the Sprint but I personally find this year renewal to be pretty straightforward. Araafa is the best horse and if he likes America he will win this race. Echo of Light to me is the only other horse with a shot to upset him. Americans have long been touting the talents of Gorella and Aragorn but I really do think that both of them will meet with defeat. Aragorn did not look good in his last and I think he’s tailed off in form. Staying in training all year will do that to you. He’s regressed in his last 3 Beyers and all the horses he’s been beating this year have been going elsewhere and failing badly. Gorella is dangerous but with traffic concerns I do not see her getting it done here, not to mention the fact that this year’s field is better than last years. Aussie Rules is overrated and while he exposed the Shadwell horses as being second class I don’t think that makes him a top tier contender. Araafa has been brought beautifully into this race. He wasn’t 100% last out and this will be his top race. His trainer knows how to win BC races and is very dangerous. He’s picked up a local rider of the highest class and all that remains is his suitability to the conditions. In that regard I do believe he is perfect. Echo of Light is a longer shot who perfectly fits the profile of what a Mile winner should be like. He gets the number #1 stable rider in Dettori and he’s in the best form of his life. I will shade against him slightly though because of his preference for running freely. Badge of Silver will be on the muscle coming from the shelf and the pace is likely to be very quick. That will play against him slightly. There are a plethora of horses I’d use underneath, chief among them would be Free Thinking. Free Thinking is proven over the course and is a real miler. He has bee unlucky in his last two attempts at 8f on the grass and while I don’t see him winning I really see him running well. Silent Name is a horse I’ve been high on all year and while his Shadwell was a disaster I think he can be forgiven. I’m still in love with his lightning accleration. I think he’s simply been terribly ridden in his last few races. Look for him to run a good race. I would still spread all exacta’s in this race, but for the top spot I think Araafa is something approaching a single.

1) Araafa
2) Free Thinking
3) Echo of Light