BC Distaff

A lot of people are saying that this race is a very good one, I will concede that it does appear quite even. But this race is a bad one. Horses like Sharp Cat, Banshee Breeze, Beautiful Pleasure and Azeri would roll over this group with devastating ease. Fleet Indian is the standout and she does appear capable of winning. But this race is pretty even. Look at the relative form. Fleet Indian nips Balleto, Spun Sugar also narrowly beats Balletto. Spun Sugar and Round Pound both beat Happy Ticket by close margins and Happy Ticket herself is the only open age stakes winner over this surface. If these horses were rated by class, with a Timeform like figure I thik they'd all be about equal. I think Bushfire, Baghdaria, Lemons Forever, Hollywood Story, Asi Siempre and Sharp Lisa have no chance. I wont use any of them in any way. But that still leaves at least 6 horses with legitimate chances. I am willing to forgive the polytrack performances of Happy Ticket and Spun Sugar. Spun Sugar is an inconsistent horse even on her best day and she never picked up at all on the surface. Happy Ticket just never got a clear run. Balletto is dangerous, she seems to run close to everyone but I’m not going to play this hanger in any winning spot. She could breakout on this big day but more than likely she wont be able to win, just like she hasn’t been able to win all year. Spun Sugar is a horse I keep coming back to. She is a personal favorite of mine but I also believe her to be the best mix of class and speed in this division. She is the kind that will either win the race or be nowhere but I have to really respect her chances. Fleet Indian has been dominant all year and has been facing increasingly difficult horses. One still questions if she can take the heat and still come with a run. I believe she can, but I don’t believe that she is significantly better than the rest of these and for value’s sake I’m not going to key her on top. I think the pace will be lively so I think that sets up for Happy Ticket. She isn’t what many people think of as a closer but I think she runs her best when she isn’t attending the pace. She has decent acceleration which she employed with great success as a sprinter. A fast pace will help create the kind of environment she needs. Balletto and Pine Island are the two big closers but I don’t see either of them being able to get up in time. Balletto because of her mental issues and Pine Island simply because these are better fillies and they wont be as easy to catch as Teammate. I respect Pool Land a ton, but will this Pletcher speed horse really be able to wire this field? I’m thinking she wont be. Round Pond has the look of an enticing longshot but I’m not going to use her. I think she isn’t a real two turn horse. I think the distance will find her out a bit. I’ll probably go with whoever is the best price between Happy Ticket and Spun Sugar.

1) Spun Sugar
2) Happy Ticket
3) Pine Island