Turkey Time

Overview: After the famine that was last weekend we have more stakes than we know what to do with. I guess that comes courtesy of an extended long weekend. By my count there are 8 stakes races that could be thought of as pretty big deals. The Fall Highweight doesnt have championship ramifications but its an interesting affair. I've decided to split the information I post in a manner that makes more sense. Up to now I have been posting almost redundant information in this blog and Kennedy's Corridor at TBC. But from now on I'll focus this space more on the analysis and use the TBC portal as basically a suggested wagering pad.

Falls City
I'm not really into chalk this week. I find myself looking at races and deciding that a certain horse has a huge chance only to find that they're almost forgotten on the morning line. I'm not complaining because of one or two of these runs big it'll make the weekend for me. But my obvious observation for this race is that Silmaril owns the best last race, the best race period at this distance and the best overall record at this distance. To me that makes her an excellent play. Especially at 8/1. The two big horses will be Summerly because she won the Oaks here, but has been basically irrelevant ever since and Sangrita because she is the hot horse and she has the red hot connections. Matz can do no wrong at CD this year and this filly will take a host of money. But personally she isnt for me. She doesnt look like a horse who will sit kindly off the pace. She likes to be right in the mix and when going two turns against tough older mares she may be found wanting. Perhaps she's good enough to just laugh them off but I prefer proven class. That is what Silmaril brings, the wild card with her is the surface but I hope she'll take to it. Joint Effort is not a two turn horse, but she does love CD so much that she has to have a good chance of running in the frame. Ermine freaked out a bit in her last and I dont expect that she'll be anywhere near as good this time. But on her best day I think she can run this quality and she might be near or at her best form so I'll use her as well.

1) Silmaril
2) Ermine
3) Joint Effort


Clark Handicap
This is likely the last start of the season for most of the horses in this race. So I think one important consideration is finding horses who are on the upswing and being wary that the others may be over the top. To me the horses in the best current form seem to be Bright One, Premium Tap, It's No Joke, Master Command and maybe even horses like Wiggins and MB Sea. Another thing that sticks out is the speed in this race. I am personally going to play against Bright One and Wanderin Boy despite the fact that they are among the most talented horses in here. I dont think they can be successful in the same race. Look at their form lines, it is pretty much a disaster for either of them to have company early and Wanderin Boy specifically looks better around one turn. Both are easy tosses for me. Master Command is a good horse but I'm also tossing him from consideration because I think his win last out makes him look better than he really is. He wont control the pace here. More than likely he'll get that close stalking trip 3 or 4 wide all the way around and have nothing left in the lane. I dont like either of the money burners in here. Andromeda's Hero and Wild Desert flatter to decieve and I prefer to play against them both even hitting the frame. Andromeda really doesnt get over the track very well and I think his form cycle has run its course. The horses I'm going to focus on primarily are Premium Tap the favorite, It's No Joke, MB Sea and Wiggins. Its really hard to find much wrong with Premium Tap. He is a good horse and is the class of the field. But there are two things I dislike. First he'll be the favorite, second because he's the big horse in the race he might not get the best of trips (especially with Kent D on his back). His moderate lack of consistency is also a concern but I think his performances have been more consistent than his results indicate. He's going to be tough to beat but maybe you can get someone with a price to take him. For my money that someone is It's No Joke. This horse really is in the form of his life and I wonder if some of it isnt due to his unorthodox training regimen. Check out his record. This was always a horse with some talent and in the spring they took a run at some stakes races and the result was disastrous. He was running and working like a normal horse. Even firing some bullets, but he was also getting crushed on race day. So what did they do? They gave him a bit of a hiatus at the track then brought him back to the races, but now he's running without working! He hasnt had a workout since June 2nd. He's made 6 starts since that last timed workout and he seems to be flourishing. He is as good as he's ever been and I think he'll be live in this one. He has speed, but he isnt a runaway. He's best when stalking close and with his post you can almost be assured that he will mirror Premium Tap. He has the best record of any horse over this track and he may just pull this off. For minor placings I actually like the two Romans horses that will be overlooked. Wiggins likes the track and come sin here second off the shelf and he looks ripe to improve. His best race is already near good enough to run third. MB Sea has good hidden form. I like him most among the pure closers in this race. If we get a fast pace watch for him to be picking them off late while going up the rail with CD's leading rider. This horse even has common ownership with Bright One. I think they entered him knowing he has a real chance.

1) It's No Joke
2) Premium Tap
3) MB Sea

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
I am very interested to see how this race develops as a pair of 2yo who I think very highly of are facing off and one of them unfortunately will meet with defeat. Tiz Wonderful is one of the most talented horses of the crop. His maiden at Saratoga was all the rage, his win next out in the Iroquois was ugly from one perspective and explosive from another. He refused to settle, tossed his head about and won for fun by almost 7 lengths. When a horse can win that easily when he had every right to run a clunker you have to take special notice. I certainly hope his connections look to settle him down and rate him going two turns for the first time. The other big horse I'm looking forward to see is Any Given Saturday. While he comes from the Pletcher barn he doesnt have anywhere near the same reputation as Tiz Wonderful. He's just own a pair of Polytrack races at Turfway and Keeneland so this is a huge step up in class as well as a chance for him to take on a new surface. He handles the distance fine and is capable of making a huge sweeping move. Its very visually impressive and I dont realy need him to win this race. Just to show me that he can bring it on regular dirt. I think this race is between those and Joe Got Even. Joe Got Even is a solid kind of horse that could go either way. He beat Starbase and Starbase came back to be third to Tiz Wonderful. Not sure if the stretchout will help but on breeding it should.

1) Tiz Wonderful
2) Any Given Saturday
3) Joe Got Even

Golden Rod Stakes
The Golden Rod looks pretty straighforward. They all have to beat Change Up and to be honest I dont see many alternatives. Change Up could always toss in a clunker like she did at Arlington but I doubt it. The only real alternative that interests me is Stellas New Groove. She is the kind of horse you look at and wonder why she is in the race but for me she has an outsiders chance. She was good in her maiden, she did all the things you'd like to see. Then she came back going two turns on Polytrack against another Golden Rod starter Wellofaprize. She got off evenly and raced a little wide before getting into contention on the far turn. She didnt seem to be all that comfortable in a crowd and she sort of backed out and looked to be going nowhere until mid stretch. She got back on track and was closing very well. Now an inside post doesnt really bode well for her avoiding traffic. But maybe she's learned a few things and perhaps she will appreciate going back to dirt. I know she handles two turns and her trainer is actually pretty good at placing her horses. I dont like Cohiba Miss at all and I dont realy think much of Wellofaprize either. Lady Joanne should run well enough to hit the frame.

1) Change Up
2) Stellas New Groove
3) Lady Joanne