A Handicappers Confidence

I have been thinking lately about what qualities I'm looking for in a horse when I handicap a race. Are there common threads among the horses I like or is it that I'm random in my selection. Also what is the actual difference between a horse I'd think of as a "Best Bet" and just a regular play. What are the factors that lead me to lesser or greater levels of confidence? And are there defined tiers of confidence that should impact the way I'd play certain selections? How do you decide whether to put $2 to show or $100 to win?

This topic was sort of dealt with on Dan Ilman's FormBlog (which by the way is a must read). The discussion was about whether or not you should press it when you're hot or take it easy when you're in a slump. And if you're going to do that how do you define what period you're in?

I am of the school of thought that says you should play the same way all the time. Winning streaks and losing streaks are part of the game. But as long as the way you select your plays remains the same there is no reason to go lighter or heavier on a current play just because you're in the midst of a streak. Every single play has the same statistical probability of success regardless of the streak. If you are flipping a coin and 10 times in a row you got heads logic says that you're due to get tails. However the next time you flip the coin the probability of that individual coin flip is still 50%.

I think the most effective way to get the most out of your streaks is to define the types of plays you're making. If you are more confident in a particular type of play then you ought to consistenly use more capital on it. So in that interest here are some ideas in defining for myself what the contributes to the different tiers of confidence. This list should change quite a bit as I devote more thought to this.

Tier 1 (Best Bet): Objective - 40% winners (Min avg payout required $5.00)

• No viable alternatives present
• Strong trainer angle
• Proficient over course, surface and or distance
• Good recent form represented by either race results or workouts
• Expected pace scenario must be strongly in thier favor

Tier 2: Objective - 30% winners (Min avg payout required $6.67)

• Good trainer angle
• Not the only horse with a chance but one of few genuine win candidates
• Good recent form represented by either race results or workouts
• Prefer races with false favorites
• Expected pace scenario cannot be strongly against them

Tier 3 (Action Play): Objective - 25% winners (Min avg payout required $8.00)

• Must be well suited to the conditions
• Must offer good value relative to chance of success
• Not necessarily the best horse just the best value
• Good recent form represented by either race results or workouts
• Expected pace scenario cannot be strongly against them