Thursday, January 25, 2007

California Sunshine

Sunshine Millions Oaks
If this was not a Millions race I wouldn't be looking at it. I think its a crapshoot and I'd stay away from it. However there might be some interesting horses emerging from this race. Mistical Plan is the class of this field, she will be the one they have to beat. But there is an interesting challenger in the form of AV Flynn. She could be the filly version of Lost In The Fog. No one has gotten near her yet and her figures tower over this group, even Mistical Plan's. However she has only run on the fair circuit so to say she has faced lesser competition is an understatement. She is also coming off a 6 month layoff. There is a lot of speed in this race but I think this filly may be the quickest of all and she will either win or finish well back. For the third spot I like Short Sentence. Yes most of her form has come over an all weather strip but she did well in her only dirt try as well and she looks like a horse of class, and best of all she can come from off the pace.

1)AV Flynn
2)Mistical Plan
3)Short Sentence

Sunshine Millions Distaff
I really see this race as pretty straightforward. Take D'Tour will struggle out west and Somethinaboutlaura will have them over a barrel. Take D'Tour will take a lot of money which I will be thankful for but she has never been as effective at two turns and she has never appreciated company early. One thing easterners find out quikc when going west is that the early pace is almost always quicker. I' m pretty confident that Take D'Tour will struggle to adjust. Somethinaboutlaura was something of a revelation in 2006 and while there may be some suspicion that she is better below a mile I think she will handle this group rather easily and I truly believe that she relishes this trip. For second I really like Dancing General. I had this tabbed as last years SM Filly and Mare Turf winner but she scratched with an injury and has only been back once since then. It wasnt a great effort but ti was the kind that sets her up well second time out. She has been consistent all her life and I expect her to run very well. I might use a horse liek Getback Time in the third spot. I dont think she can win but she is consistent and likes the track. She could juice up the exotics.

1)Somethinaboutlaura
2)Dancing General
3)Getback Time

Sunshine Millions Sprint
I think this is one of the most intriguing races of the entire day. It could possibly boast the highest quality field. In Bordonaro, Proud tower Too and Nightmare Affair we have three of the best sprinters from last year and the supporting cast is awfully good as well. I know this is another upset but I see Bordonaro's colors getting lowered here. Proud Tower Too was perhaps the most underrated sprinter of last year. He was certainly a better horse than Thor's Echo and we know how that one has risen to fame. But aside from the form referral I think the pace is completely stacked to his advantage. His is the fastest horse in the race and the only horse who can really go with him is Bordonaro and I dont think he will. Migliore isn't a top class gate rider and I very much doubt that he is going to get suicidal with his first high profile mount since Artie Schiller. I see Bordonaro getting the classic favorites ride. 3 paths out 1 length off the pace. But it can be more tiring chasing a horse all the way around and I think Proud Tower Too takes them gate to wire. I loved his first race back off a layoff, if I could have scripted a comeback race for him it would have looked exactly like that and I think it sets him up beautifully to move forward. A longshot I like is Areyoutalkintome. He looked fantastic last out, and it was the first time in ages that he has looked that good. I think he's cycling back to his best and his best is good enough to surprise people. I may even try to get him into the exacta ahead of Bordonaro.

1)Proud Tower Too
2)Areyoutalkintome
3)Bordonaro

Sunshine Millions Turf
I wanted very much to get interesting with this race but sometimes the easiest answer is the right answer. Yes Lava Man likes to be on the front and yes there is a lot of speed in here but to be perfectly honest I dont see Lava Man losing this race. He can adapt to any pace scenario and he is a win machine in California. I'll take whatever odds I can get on him. I dont really like the easterners coming in here. I mean its hard not to like the gallant old Revved Up, I wish him all the best but 9f has never been his best distance and I dont think he is good enough to beat Lava Man. Still he could hit frame and I hope he does but I may just go for some longer priced horses. Two horses that do interest me a bit underneath are Super Strut and Running Free. Their form closely coincides lately but I think Super Strut has more upside and the distance will only help. Also with the speed in here it might pay to be using a real late runner like Super Strut. Another longshot is the upwardly mobile Sherwood Park. He has historically been more effective at shorter distances but he has gone 8.5f successfully. Drysdale is pretty shrewd about stepping his charges up in class and this one looks ready. He also loves the Santa Anita course.

1)Lava Man
2)Super Strut
3)Sherwood Park

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey, just stopped by to have another laugh at your expense. Nice how you and your poorly conceived "rankings" were trumpeting Lava Man as being rightful champion over Invasor before the new year, and now, mysteriously, you have altered your ratings despite the fact that neither of them have even raced since November.

So exactly what did occur during the past month to make these rankings you were trumpeting as being superior to Eclipse Award voting change??

""Invasor also was an overwhelming winner for champion older horse, easily defeating Lava Man by 262-8. One voter abstained.""

Don't worry, there were eight other schmucks such as yourself out there. Misery and company...

Kennedy said...

Normally I wouldnt publish the comment of an idiot who doesnt even have the stones to put a screen name with his comments however in this case there is some gross misunderstanding involved.

"Nice how you and your poorly conceived "rankings" were trumpeting Lava Man as being rightful champion over Invasor before the new year, and now, mysteriously, you have altered your ratings despite the fact that neither of them have even raced since November."

This so called myseterious fact would have been cleared up entirely if you would have read anything from this space in the last month. The reason why Invasor is now ranked #1 is because that is his final score with points and votes included. That was always the plan, you simply didnt read enough to realize it. Look around for the TCR awards posts. It'll clear everything up for you, and demonstrate why this system is superior to the one the Eclipse now uses.

Next time look around and gather a few facts before making a boob of yourself. I suppose its a good thing you didnt put your name down.