Derby Top 10 (Feb 12th)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Liquidity (6)
6. Notional (7)
7. Scat Daddy (8)
8. Birdbirdistheword (9)
9. Hard Spun (10)
10. Law Breaker (new)
As with so many Derby preps the Risen Star and Whirlaway were more about eliminating horses from the Derby trail than they were about unearthing new and exciting prospects. Summer Doldrums will be seen on a few lists after his smashing win in the Whirlaway and the gaudy 106 Beyer figure. But for me he just makes it on the radar. I respect Violette very much but I don't like the fact that this horse wasn't sent to Florida with the rest of the string. I'm also always skeptical about horse running huge figures out of nowhere. I'll need to see another good race from him to include him in the top 10. The Whirlaway all but eliminated Lawrence The Roman from the Derby. I have not been a big fan of his chances, he has never even featured on my radar list but out of respect for his owner (who in my opinion has conducted himself very well) I haven't mentioned him in a negative light. The Risen Star told us nothing new about Notional. This was exactly the same Notional who won the San Rafael, he didn't improve in this race thus he doesn't leap over anyone in the standings except Circular Quay, which was more due to Pletcher's horse dropping. Notional needs to get faster in order to be a Derby horse but he has time for that. As of right now he is undefeated on normal dirt and he has been visually impressive. Circular Quay goes off the list but stays on the radar. He lost all chance when the spill happened in front of him but really he wasn't going to win without something supersonic in the lane. My suspicion is that he isn't as effective at two turns. He wont be back on the list until he proves me wrong. The new addition to my top 10 may be a bit of a reckless head-scratcher but the more I see of Law Breaker the more I like. This horse burned me when he held off my choice in his career debut to win at 50/1. He then went straight into stakes company and was third beaten just by a neck in a blanket finish. Both of those starts however were on the grass, he then switched to the main track in a two turn allowance and he won. He cut back in distance for the San Vicente but I thought he ran a stellar race against horses who were clearly much quicker. He has not yet received any big time speed figures that would lead you to believe that he is a top flight horse but he's a waiter and a fighter. He doesn't open up on horses he waits for them a bit but he also loves a good fight. I'm sure Baffert will toss him into tougher company around two turns next out. He could surprise some people.
On the radar: Adore the Gold, Circular Quay (5), Street Sense, Belgravia, Major Pleasure, Exhale, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Day Pass, Minefield
Future Book Follow-up
Based on the closing prices these would have been my future wager plays. For some reason the O'Niell/Reddam trio didnt get very much support. I know I didnt mention Notional in my original Future Book Analysis but I was not expecting such a huge price on him. Also the two fillies mentioned below did not look enticing on the morning line but their final prices were quite reasonable.
Derby Future Wager
Pool #1
Great Hunter - 24/1
Liquidity - 33/1
Notional - 27/1
Oaks Future Wager
Pool #1
Baroness Thatcher - 33/1
Get Ready Bertie - 31/1
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2 comments:
Law Breaker is definately an interesting member of your top-ten, but I agree there is something about him that makes you take a second look. The first time I noticed him was when I was researching Kolo at the Eddie Logan Stakes - and he definately left an impression as I was on him for the win this weekend. Although he didn't pull it off, he does seem to keep your attention. Personally, I think that Forefathers may be the most intriguing possibility from the past couple weeks' sprint preps. Let us know what you think of him.
i have seen 6 of the 10 horses on KC's derby top 10 list and 5 of the 10 horses on KC's radar list/ the lists i believe the list(s)are very good at this stage and i liked the addition of summer doldrums who ran a professional looking race in the whirlaway and, as indicated, came up with a great beyers/if pressed, of the horses i have seen, i like the performances of, (and in no particular order), ravel, liquidity, scat daddy, adore the gold, street sense, and summer doldrums/ circular quay remains an enigma (?)/ looking at the pp's, i see things i like in exhale, belgravia, any given saturday, and zanjero/ notional is a horse you love to love because he is so honest and does what he has to do, but you are concerned he will become untracked eventually, because he doesnt seem to be getting any faster////good admonition by KC in regard to dreaming of anna coming off her BC win last fall in that these types don't really come back to win as often as people think//regarding the las virgenes, rags to riches looked stunning in the post parade and warming up/ she had the look, with ears pricked, that she was ready to run/ she opened at 2-1 and drifted slightly upward// KC mentioned getting burned by law breaker/ the same thing has happened to me, twice now, in regard to flores, frankle and sugar shake/ this time in the santa maria/ it was was a very nice looking victory for the filly/ another wuda, cuda, shuda kinda moment//as for me despite the normal losses one expects to incur, the weekend went well// i was surprised at the low odds on circular quay/ i had him vaued at 5-2and actually thought notional would go off at odds lower than circular quay/ i think circular quay went off at about 1-1 and i wish someone would explain to me why/ to some extent lawrence the roman also went off at odds lower than he should have, considering the competition he had been running against/ not hitting the board was surprising to say the least in light of the fact prado came to NY to ride him/ i had straight up stand alone, win-place on notional ($7.80), summer doldrums ($9.30), rags to riches ($7.20), and an across the board on guidry in the second race at gulfstream on saturday for a good price/// in regard to the RTD contest i had notional (a KC pick) who won the risen star and noble court who won the san vicente on sunday/ apparently, noble court lost a shoe during the race and barely won over the hard charging law breaker previously mention in KC's 'derby top 10' post/ i had lawrence the roman in the whirlaway on saturday who finished off the board// finnaly i said i would eat my bears hat if any given saturday went off in the kentucky futures wagers pool 1/ it looks as if i have a bears hat and some crow to eat/ did you hear what harry cary's restaurant did with the bartman ball?//chicago gerry
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