My Charmer Handicap
I think race has shaped up as a very fair contest. Most of the entrants have a shot at victory and one could make a case for that all the different running styles have a fair chance. I personally think the pace will be solid and that Bayou's Lassie will be passed late as she has been routinely this year. Annabill should keep the pressure on from a close stalking position but I'm not convinced of her Turf class. Clearly she can run on the surface but can she run in this company is the question. If you're looking at class then clearly La Dolce Vita is the horse to play. She spends most of her time running against horses like Safari Queen, Hostess, Roshani and Honey Ryder. When she has stepped down in company this year she has won. Including a minor stakes at Calder earlier this year. La Dolce Vita is at the mercy of the pace but with the speed we have in here she looms as the horse to beat in my mind. J'ray is a questionable horse to me, she has not really run well since March and I'm not going to take a favorite who is cold like that. La Dolce Vita has not won since the spring either but she has been running well against far better horses. The horse I will use along with and maybe over La Dolce Vita is Redaspen. I'm not sure that I endorse the trainer change but Baker has not yet proven that she can't train so I'll assume it's business as usual. Redaspen has some hidden class and is a serious talent on firm ground. She is 5 for 8 on firmish courses and has never been out of the frame. She has won 2 of her last 3 starts and her loss came at the hands of Karen's Caper who is worlds above these horses and who set a course record in that race. Redaspen's best race is definitely good enough it's just a matter of whether or not she's fit enough to run her best race off the shelf. I would also only include Redaspen is the ground is firm.
Redaspen
La Dolce Vita
Tropical Turf Handicap
Like the My Charmer this is a very wide open race. I think you could go 5 deep and still not have the winner so I'm just going to choose one direction and stick with it. That direction for me is Fishy Advice. I do think many others have strong cases, most notably Minister's Joy who loves the course and will appreciate a return to the grass and Go Between who finally seems to be rounding back into the form that made him a crack turf horse as a 3yo. But I'm not sure it's a good risk reward to take several horses for the win when I could also justify backing Host, Ballast and National Captain. Fishy Advice comes into the race off a great win in the Knickerbocker where he beat the progressive Thorn Song. That will definitely affect his price but I'm still hoping for something around 5/1. Fishy loves the distance of 9f and many of his recent defeats were due to the distance. He was legitimately terrible in the Fourstardave but I can forgive him of that. He was just coming off a race that was far too long for him. Obviously Donk felt in retrospect that it took something out of him because he put him on the shelf. He looked good in the Cliffhanger but would have benefited from an extra furlong and a more patient ride. He got that in the Knickerbocker and won nicely. He does rely on a good pace in front of him since changing his style this year but I think he'll get it behind Giant Wrecker.
Fishy Advice
Friday, November 30, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Why Don't They Get It?
So the American Graded Stakes Committee blew it again, surprise surprise. That's not really news, it's a recurring theme. There are 718 unrestricted stakes races run in North America and 67% (481) of them ended up being graded. 10 races were upgraded and 6 races were downgraded. We have three new G-1 races, the Maker's Mark Mile, Just A Game and the First Lady. All of them 8f races on the grass.
Every year we get more and more stakes races when what the game actually needs is movement in the opposite direction.
I think they need to downgrade a ton of races right away. Starting with the G-1 KY Derby preps. None of those races should be G-1's. The Derby is a G-1 and those are prep races. How the Graded Stakes committee can justify giving them equal status is beyond me.
One of the reasons why they have is because they always look back at the stakes at the end of the year and see which horses ran in what. Naturally a Derby winner comes out of one of those preps every year so in retrospect they look like G-1 quality. But for many horses its the first time they've been in G-1 company. They weren't G-1 horses when they ran in the race. A race should not be upgraded because its participants went on to fame. It should be upgraded because its participants are increasingly qualified before they enter the said race.
For instance if the top handicap horse in America enters the Brooklyn 5 years in a row then maybe it deserves to be upgraded.
Most 3yo stakes races conducted early in the year and virtually all 2yo stakes races are graded too highly. Most 2yo G-1 stakes races are half full of nothing more than maiden winners. Outside the Breeders Cup how many 2yo races really get G-1 quality fields? Maybe the Breeders Futurity or the Champagne but certainly not all the 2yo G-1's end up with G-1 fields.
The overabundance of graded stakes is to blame for small fields in prestigious races because horses can ship around the country and pick their spots. The AGSC also bears some of the responsibility for early retirements. If there were only 5 G-1 races for 3yo's all year long you might have to keep your horse around longer in order to win one of them. We all know that breeding value hinges on resumes of Graded Stakes so one way to combat retiring is to make it hard to earn Graded Stakes wins.
They get an annual chance to right the wrongs and once again they blew it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On an unrelated note Kennedy's Corridor will be mirrored on the Thoroughbred Champions homepage starting tomorrow. There will still be benefits to visiting this site like the TCR rankings and other gems I put on the sidebar but most of the posts will be there as well.
I've been a member of TBC for nearly 7 years and have served as a moderator for much of that time. In addition to my blog there should be several others so be sure to check that out.
Every year we get more and more stakes races when what the game actually needs is movement in the opposite direction.
I think they need to downgrade a ton of races right away. Starting with the G-1 KY Derby preps. None of those races should be G-1's. The Derby is a G-1 and those are prep races. How the Graded Stakes committee can justify giving them equal status is beyond me.
One of the reasons why they have is because they always look back at the stakes at the end of the year and see which horses ran in what. Naturally a Derby winner comes out of one of those preps every year so in retrospect they look like G-1 quality. But for many horses its the first time they've been in G-1 company. They weren't G-1 horses when they ran in the race. A race should not be upgraded because its participants went on to fame. It should be upgraded because its participants are increasingly qualified before they enter the said race.
For instance if the top handicap horse in America enters the Brooklyn 5 years in a row then maybe it deserves to be upgraded.
Most 3yo stakes races conducted early in the year and virtually all 2yo stakes races are graded too highly. Most 2yo G-1 stakes races are half full of nothing more than maiden winners. Outside the Breeders Cup how many 2yo races really get G-1 quality fields? Maybe the Breeders Futurity or the Champagne but certainly not all the 2yo G-1's end up with G-1 fields.
The overabundance of graded stakes is to blame for small fields in prestigious races because horses can ship around the country and pick their spots. The AGSC also bears some of the responsibility for early retirements. If there were only 5 G-1 races for 3yo's all year long you might have to keep your horse around longer in order to win one of them. We all know that breeding value hinges on resumes of Graded Stakes so one way to combat retiring is to make it hard to earn Graded Stakes wins.
They get an annual chance to right the wrongs and once again they blew it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On an unrelated note Kennedy's Corridor will be mirrored on the Thoroughbred Champions homepage starting tomorrow. There will still be benefits to visiting this site like the TCR rankings and other gems I put on the sidebar but most of the posts will be there as well.
I've been a member of TBC for nearly 7 years and have served as a moderator for much of that time. In addition to my blog there should be several others so be sure to check that out.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
TCR Accountability - Part 1
For those of you who don't know the TCR (Thoroughbred Championship Rankings) is a project I've been working on for three years now. The stated goal is to "accurately assess the accomplishments of horses and assemble them into rankings that could be used as a sort of pro-tem standings that fans could easily follow during the year." You can see how the TCR has performed since 1999 by clicking on this link or visiting the ever present link on the sidebar.
One could say it's sort of like a speed figure. A speed figure tries to take all the factors in a particular race and boil them down to one number that you can compare universally. The TCR tries to take the accomplishments of a given horse and make it into one number that can be compared with others. Accomplishments should not be the sole determinant of year end awards just like the highest speed figure does not make a horse the definite race winner but I do believe that they should form a large part of the consideration. Once the year is over Kennedy's Corridor will once again host the TCR Awards where the rankings and votes are given 50% weight in determining the final outcome. Your votes will be much appreciated.
The emphasis I've tried to put on this system is one of accuracy. I suppose I'm kind of a perfectionist so accuracy is important to me. When your goal is accuracy it becomes necessary to evaluate your work to see if the goal is being realized. I don't do it often in open, written, form like this but I'm going to try and evaluate the accuracy and performance of the TCR this year.
The TCR takes more factors into account than simply placings in graded stakes. Earnings, weight given, ungraded races and winning streaks are part of the equation that leads to the final number. One of the real strengths of the system is that all divisions can be compared side by side because of the reduction scale that is in place. A G-1 for older males is worth more than a G-1 for 2yo females. Those divisions are the high and low ends of the scale and every division is reduced somewhere between those levels. All of these factors are not exclusive to American racing so from time to time you'll see some rankings from Canada and Europe, as data and my free time allow.
Divisional breakdowns
2yo Female
Indian Blessing - 125.14
Pure Clan - 62.78
Proud Spell - 56.55
Rated Fiesty - 44.24
Country Star - 38.88
I think the top 5 ranked horses in this division represent an accurate interpretation. Rated Fiesty stays on the list thanks to her early stakes wins and the undefeated bonus. The undefeated bonus is something I'm looking at altering for next year. I think it is valuable to include but I have thought about reducing the bonus by the same percentage that the races for this division are reduced. In other words an undefeated season as a 2yo Female should not count for as much as an undefeated season for an Older Male because the latter accomplishment is far more difficult. If the bonus were to be altered as suggested Rated Fiesty would still be in the top 5 but less than a point above Set Play, Cry And Catch Me and A To The Croft in 6th, 7th and 8th. Country Star would move to 4th and Proud Spell would overtake Pure Clan for second. That order I think would still be viewed as generally accurate, perhaps more so. The TCR gets an A in this division.
2yo Male
War Pass - 167.22
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Salute The Sarge - 76.02
Wicked Style - 71.08
Pyro - 61.65
The undefeated bonus does not really make a difference to this division at all. War Pass takes it in a romp no matter what and is the second highest rated 2yo since 1999. Only Johannesburg managed a higher rating as a juvenile. Many people would put Court Vision (51.59, 7th ranked) in the top 5 and horses like Salute the Sarge and Wicked Style could be dropped without any outcry but running in G-1 events is key for 2yo's where very few races are actually contested. Making the most from your limited starts is necessary and some unheralded horses will make the list if they consistently run and place in high quality races. I'd give the TCR a B grade in this division.
3yo Female
Rags To Riches - 232.30
Octave - 177.50
Panty Raid - 152.46
Lady Joanne - 122.20
Dream Rush - 118.30
I think this division is 100% accurate at this present time. Not only are the top 5 all there but I think they're in the specific order they should be in. A+
3yo Male
Curlin - 460.20
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Tiago - 190.08
Curlin and Street Sense were in direct competition all year long for this title and the overall lead. Street Sense held it until the Belmont then he regained it over the summer and held a slight advantage going into the Breeders Cup. The gap between them looks wide now because Street Sense did not earn any points in the BC while for Curlin it was the biggest race of his career. Hard Spun was behind those two all year and only really closed the gap on Street Sense in the Breeders Cup. Nobiz Like Showbiz and Tiago were the best of the rest with Any Given Saturday (166.02) in 6th. Once again I think this is basically accurate. A-
Female Sprinter
River's Prayer - 137.02
Dream Rush - 118.30
Maryfield - 105.78
Pussycat Doll - 100.68
Oprah Winney - 87.94
Here is where we might get some controversy. The undefeated bonus comes into play again and helps propel River's Prayer to the top of this division. Even with a reduced bonus she would still be on top. But the biggest determinant is the fact that the BC Filly and Mare Sprint was not a G-1 and was not given Championship status by the TCR. So essentially it was graded like a listed stakes race. The Graded Stakes committee also thought it was a listed stakes race because they refused to give it a grade. However functionally it was sort of a championship race, however the other two new BC races effectively weren't. So perhaps this is more a problem with the AGSC and the Breeders Cup rather than the TCR. I follow their lead and for this year it may or may not mean skewed results. River's Prayer did actually have a great year. C
Male Sprinter
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Idiot Proof - 141.11
Greg's Gold - 123.52
Talent Search - 122.80
Smokey Stover - 116.62
For a division that took so long to take shape I think it worked out very well. For so long there was no clear leader in this division and no one seemed to be running good consistent races at a high level, so it was won by just two instances of brilliance from Midnight Lute. That was enough to carry the day for him and I think rightly so. A+
One could say it's sort of like a speed figure. A speed figure tries to take all the factors in a particular race and boil them down to one number that you can compare universally. The TCR tries to take the accomplishments of a given horse and make it into one number that can be compared with others. Accomplishments should not be the sole determinant of year end awards just like the highest speed figure does not make a horse the definite race winner but I do believe that they should form a large part of the consideration. Once the year is over Kennedy's Corridor will once again host the TCR Awards where the rankings and votes are given 50% weight in determining the final outcome. Your votes will be much appreciated.
The emphasis I've tried to put on this system is one of accuracy. I suppose I'm kind of a perfectionist so accuracy is important to me. When your goal is accuracy it becomes necessary to evaluate your work to see if the goal is being realized. I don't do it often in open, written, form like this but I'm going to try and evaluate the accuracy and performance of the TCR this year.
The TCR takes more factors into account than simply placings in graded stakes. Earnings, weight given, ungraded races and winning streaks are part of the equation that leads to the final number. One of the real strengths of the system is that all divisions can be compared side by side because of the reduction scale that is in place. A G-1 for older males is worth more than a G-1 for 2yo females. Those divisions are the high and low ends of the scale and every division is reduced somewhere between those levels. All of these factors are not exclusive to American racing so from time to time you'll see some rankings from Canada and Europe, as data and my free time allow.
Divisional breakdowns
2yo Female
Indian Blessing - 125.14
Pure Clan - 62.78
Proud Spell - 56.55
Rated Fiesty - 44.24
Country Star - 38.88
I think the top 5 ranked horses in this division represent an accurate interpretation. Rated Fiesty stays on the list thanks to her early stakes wins and the undefeated bonus. The undefeated bonus is something I'm looking at altering for next year. I think it is valuable to include but I have thought about reducing the bonus by the same percentage that the races for this division are reduced. In other words an undefeated season as a 2yo Female should not count for as much as an undefeated season for an Older Male because the latter accomplishment is far more difficult. If the bonus were to be altered as suggested Rated Fiesty would still be in the top 5 but less than a point above Set Play, Cry And Catch Me and A To The Croft in 6th, 7th and 8th. Country Star would move to 4th and Proud Spell would overtake Pure Clan for second. That order I think would still be viewed as generally accurate, perhaps more so. The TCR gets an A in this division.
2yo Male
War Pass - 167.22
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Salute The Sarge - 76.02
Wicked Style - 71.08
Pyro - 61.65
The undefeated bonus does not really make a difference to this division at all. War Pass takes it in a romp no matter what and is the second highest rated 2yo since 1999. Only Johannesburg managed a higher rating as a juvenile. Many people would put Court Vision (51.59, 7th ranked) in the top 5 and horses like Salute the Sarge and Wicked Style could be dropped without any outcry but running in G-1 events is key for 2yo's where very few races are actually contested. Making the most from your limited starts is necessary and some unheralded horses will make the list if they consistently run and place in high quality races. I'd give the TCR a B grade in this division.
3yo Female
Rags To Riches - 232.30
Octave - 177.50
Panty Raid - 152.46
Lady Joanne - 122.20
Dream Rush - 118.30
I think this division is 100% accurate at this present time. Not only are the top 5 all there but I think they're in the specific order they should be in. A+
3yo Male
Curlin - 460.20
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Nobiz Like Showbiz - 191.86
Tiago - 190.08
Curlin and Street Sense were in direct competition all year long for this title and the overall lead. Street Sense held it until the Belmont then he regained it over the summer and held a slight advantage going into the Breeders Cup. The gap between them looks wide now because Street Sense did not earn any points in the BC while for Curlin it was the biggest race of his career. Hard Spun was behind those two all year and only really closed the gap on Street Sense in the Breeders Cup. Nobiz Like Showbiz and Tiago were the best of the rest with Any Given Saturday (166.02) in 6th. Once again I think this is basically accurate. A-
Female Sprinter
River's Prayer - 137.02
Dream Rush - 118.30
Maryfield - 105.78
Pussycat Doll - 100.68
Oprah Winney - 87.94
Here is where we might get some controversy. The undefeated bonus comes into play again and helps propel River's Prayer to the top of this division. Even with a reduced bonus she would still be on top. But the biggest determinant is the fact that the BC Filly and Mare Sprint was not a G-1 and was not given Championship status by the TCR. So essentially it was graded like a listed stakes race. The Graded Stakes committee also thought it was a listed stakes race because they refused to give it a grade. However functionally it was sort of a championship race, however the other two new BC races effectively weren't. So perhaps this is more a problem with the AGSC and the Breeders Cup rather than the TCR. I follow their lead and for this year it may or may not mean skewed results. River's Prayer did actually have a great year. C
Male Sprinter
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Idiot Proof - 141.11
Greg's Gold - 123.52
Talent Search - 122.80
Smokey Stover - 116.62
For a division that took so long to take shape I think it worked out very well. For so long there was no clear leader in this division and no one seemed to be running good consistent races at a high level, so it was won by just two instances of brilliance from Midnight Lute. That was enough to carry the day for him and I think rightly so. A+
TCR Accountability - Part 2
Turf Female
Precious Kitten - 214.52
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Citronnade - 175.30
Lahudood - 168.38
Honey Ryder - 133.30
Some may disagree with this assessment but I think the TCR performed very well in this division. I'd likely put Lahudood in third instead of 4th but Precious Kitten and Nashoba's Key definitely had better overall seasons. They didn't win the big one but even if you look at the conditions on the day (and Precious Kitten's legitimate excuse) I'm not sure if the BC race was all that definitive. I prefer Precious Kitten to Nashoba's Key as well because she did basically all her running on Turf while Nashoba's Key's numbers were aided by more than a few Polytrack races. Precious Kitten might not be the main media choice but she was definitely the most accomplished Turf Female this season and this is where we see the real value of a point system. Not in confirming the obvious but giving just credit where it is due. A-
Turf Male
English Channel - 339.40
Kip Deville - 242.80
After Market - 225.70
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Lava Man - 203.22
English Channel in a romp over the rest of the division. Hard to argue with that. Lava Man sneaks into the top 5 over Nobiz Like Showbiz. Neither were dedicated Turf horses but both made at least 3 starts on the lawn so they get considered. The tough old warrior Cloudy's Knight had a career best season. Not enough for a championship but certainly enough to get an honorable mention. A+
Older Female
Ginger Punch - 291.38
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Hystericalady - 183.50
Miss Shop - 143.74
Balance - 137.60
The stretch run of the BC Distaff was indeed a match up for top spot. Hystericalady might have been the #1 ranked Older Female had she been able to out duel Ginger Punch but class prevailed and I think Ginger Punch is appropriately spotted at the head of this division. Nashoba's Key is also included because of her Polytrack races. Balance made the top 5 on the strength of her opening half of the campaign. She earned just 36.40 points in the second half of the year but horses like Unbridled Belle (129.10) and Sugar Shake (119.18) just failed to do enough to reel her in. Sugar Shake may still pass her if she runs in December. Any ranking with Miss Shop in the top 5 looks suspect but she had an inconsistently good year. B+
Older Male
Lawyer Ron - 255.60
Invasor - 225.00
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Lava Man - 203.22
Student Council - 168.00
This was a very weak division as evidenced by Invasor's ability to stay in the top 5 after just a few starts. Midnight Lute could have taken top spot with a win in the Cigar Mile but once again the older horses were stymied by the 3yo's. Lawyer Ron ended up being the tepid best and right down to Student Council this list is uninspiring. Corinthian (153.30) fans may wonder why he is 7th but it was the same issue that was discussed in the Female Sprinter division. The BC Dirt Mile was not a championship race or even Graded at all so it didn't count for much points wise. B-
Overall
Curlin - 460.20
English Channel - 339.40
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Ginger Punch - 291.38
I think my favorite part of the TCR is the fact that all the divisions can be compared together and it comes out as an accurate reflection. The 3yo Males were definitely the most dominant group this year but standouts from the Turf Male and Older Female divisions managed to crack the top 5. 6 different divisions were represented in the Top 10 and two other division winners were 11th and 12th. All in all I think it was a great year for the TCR in terms of its accuracy. A few divisions were rough but a change to the undefeated bonus and hopefully some changes from the BC and AGSC should right those wrongs. I give it an A but I'd love to hear your thoughts on how accurate you think these standings have turned out to be.
Precious Kitten - 214.52
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Citronnade - 175.30
Lahudood - 168.38
Honey Ryder - 133.30
Some may disagree with this assessment but I think the TCR performed very well in this division. I'd likely put Lahudood in third instead of 4th but Precious Kitten and Nashoba's Key definitely had better overall seasons. They didn't win the big one but even if you look at the conditions on the day (and Precious Kitten's legitimate excuse) I'm not sure if the BC race was all that definitive. I prefer Precious Kitten to Nashoba's Key as well because she did basically all her running on Turf while Nashoba's Key's numbers were aided by more than a few Polytrack races. Precious Kitten might not be the main media choice but she was definitely the most accomplished Turf Female this season and this is where we see the real value of a point system. Not in confirming the obvious but giving just credit where it is due. A-
Turf Male
English Channel - 339.40
Kip Deville - 242.80
After Market - 225.70
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Lava Man - 203.22
English Channel in a romp over the rest of the division. Hard to argue with that. Lava Man sneaks into the top 5 over Nobiz Like Showbiz. Neither were dedicated Turf horses but both made at least 3 starts on the lawn so they get considered. The tough old warrior Cloudy's Knight had a career best season. Not enough for a championship but certainly enough to get an honorable mention. A+
Older Female
Ginger Punch - 291.38
Nashoba's Key - 196.30
Hystericalady - 183.50
Miss Shop - 143.74
Balance - 137.60
The stretch run of the BC Distaff was indeed a match up for top spot. Hystericalady might have been the #1 ranked Older Female had she been able to out duel Ginger Punch but class prevailed and I think Ginger Punch is appropriately spotted at the head of this division. Nashoba's Key is also included because of her Polytrack races. Balance made the top 5 on the strength of her opening half of the campaign. She earned just 36.40 points in the second half of the year but horses like Unbridled Belle (129.10) and Sugar Shake (119.18) just failed to do enough to reel her in. Sugar Shake may still pass her if she runs in December. Any ranking with Miss Shop in the top 5 looks suspect but she had an inconsistently good year. B+
Older Male
Lawyer Ron - 255.60
Invasor - 225.00
Midnight Lute - 213.90
Lava Man - 203.22
Student Council - 168.00
This was a very weak division as evidenced by Invasor's ability to stay in the top 5 after just a few starts. Midnight Lute could have taken top spot with a win in the Cigar Mile but once again the older horses were stymied by the 3yo's. Lawyer Ron ended up being the tepid best and right down to Student Council this list is uninspiring. Corinthian (153.30) fans may wonder why he is 7th but it was the same issue that was discussed in the Female Sprinter division. The BC Dirt Mile was not a championship race or even Graded at all so it didn't count for much points wise. B-
Overall
Curlin - 460.20
English Channel - 339.40
Street Sense - 311.08
Hard Spun - 292.08
Ginger Punch - 291.38
I think my favorite part of the TCR is the fact that all the divisions can be compared together and it comes out as an accurate reflection. The 3yo Males were definitely the most dominant group this year but standouts from the Turf Male and Older Female divisions managed to crack the top 5. 6 different divisions were represented in the Top 10 and two other division winners were 11th and 12th. All in all I think it was a great year for the TCR in terms of its accuracy. A few divisions were rough but a change to the undefeated bonus and hopefully some changes from the BC and AGSC should right those wrongs. I give it an A but I'd love to hear your thoughts on how accurate you think these standings have turned out to be.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Horses to Watch: 2008
Its always interesting to have a look around and try and pick out a few horses who ran this year that might have an impact next year. There is little point in mentioning the obvious horses like War Pass, Curlin, and Rags To Riches. It would actually be newsworthy if you thought they wouldn't be big time contenders next year. I'm also not going to spend time on the possible Derby candidates, I'll start my Derby top 10 list next week.
Here is a list of some overlooked horses who I think might have a big impact on their division next year.
Older Horse
Daaher - He is no underdog anymore he may in fact fall into the category of obvious picks after his huge win the Cigar Mile but I included him here because I think he is going to do far better than just have a "good" year. In my mind this is the 2008 Horse of the Year in waiting. He has all the tools one could hope for and it will be a shock to me every time he loses from here on out. His campaign will be disrupted by a trip to Dubai but hopefully that experience does not take too much out of him.
Leonnatus Anteas - If I started with an obvious horse then this is an off the wall selection. Some readers may have no idea who he even is. To save you some digging he is a Canadian bred son of Stormy Atlantic who was the Canadian 2yo champion and will possibly be the 3yo champ as well. The Breeders Cup Classic will be run on an All Weather surface for the first time ever in 2008. Now who is exactly is the best All Weather route horse in the nation? Student Council? Tiago? I submit that it might be Leonnatus Anteas with another year's maturity under his belt. He has an explosive turn of foot and is very consistent, he has also run some very nice figures on Polytrack that indicate that he could run with the best out there.
Ketchikan - I loved him in the buildup to the Derby, I thought he had the potential to be the very best. He fell out of the spotlight with an injury that has kept him on the sidelines until now. Watch for him to come through many of the minor stakes races at the Fair Grounds before trying out the big boys in the east. Similar to Mineshaft's campaign. He had very impressive speed around two turns as a 3yo and speed like that is a huge weapon on the handicap circuit.
Turf Male
Bold Hawk - If you saw his race in the Hollywood Derby this will come as no surprise. He did not get clear running until late and he closed stoutly. This is a big bodied horse who will benefit from time to develop. Toner knows how to campaign a top level Turf horse and what I love most about Bold Hawk is that he will run all day long. A big change from many of the Americans who are stretched to the max at 12f.
Champs Elysees - Dansili, Banks Hill, Heat Haze, Cacique and Intercontinental all come from the same remarkable mare Hasili. All of them were G-1 quality horses and some were even champions. Champs Elysees is the latest Hasili offspring to hit the American shores and despite his patchy European record he may be a monster among American opposition. He was improving towards the end of his 4yo season with Fabre and it would not shock me if he kicked it into another gear under Frankel. Being good enough to run second in a G-1 in Europe usually means you'll win your fair share here. Not to mention the tremendous track record of his family and connections.
Inca King - He is my early pick for best Turf miler. He's got great speed but in his last few starts he's been learning to rate and come from off the pace. Not unlike Kip Deville who was very speedy as a 3yo but was fine tuned to become the best miler in the nation. Inca King has the tools to duplicate that feat.
Turf Female
Rosinka - It may have escaped a few people notice that this was a very difficult horse to get past in 2007. Royal Highness at her peak couldn't get by and Lahudood barely managed it. Injury kept her out of the Breeders Cup but you know that Graham Motion is a master at keeping his Turf horses going at a high level for years on end. Rosinka is good enough to fill the void left by Film Maker.
Sprinter
Idiot Proof - Obvious pick again but I think Idiot Proof will be the dominant sprinter all year long. Even when Fabulous Strike comes back. Idiot Proof is brilliantly fast but does not need the lead. The BC is held at his home track and all year long I think the race will look like his to lose.
Divine Park - A bit of a forgotten horse, he's undefeated in 3 starts for McLaughlin and is capable of sprinting or going a mile. He was still very unprofessional when he saw him last
but horses like CP West and Street Magician could not handle him even though he had trouble running straight. Look for him in races like the Carter and Met Mile.
3yo Filly
Backseat Rhythm - This filly has impressed me with her consistency around two turns and the competition she's faced. I love horses who improve as the distance increases and Backseat Rhythm went from barely useful to one of the best 2yo's in the nation with a step up in trip. The form from her maiden has worked out superbly with Country Star and Mushka both winning stakes races. Although she has lost twice to Indian Blessing there is no shame in losing to the 2yo champion. Her ability to come from off the pace will put her in a good position next year.
Here is a list of some overlooked horses who I think might have a big impact on their division next year.
Older Horse
Daaher - He is no underdog anymore he may in fact fall into the category of obvious picks after his huge win the Cigar Mile but I included him here because I think he is going to do far better than just have a "good" year. In my mind this is the 2008 Horse of the Year in waiting. He has all the tools one could hope for and it will be a shock to me every time he loses from here on out. His campaign will be disrupted by a trip to Dubai but hopefully that experience does not take too much out of him.
Leonnatus Anteas - If I started with an obvious horse then this is an off the wall selection. Some readers may have no idea who he even is. To save you some digging he is a Canadian bred son of Stormy Atlantic who was the Canadian 2yo champion and will possibly be the 3yo champ as well. The Breeders Cup Classic will be run on an All Weather surface for the first time ever in 2008. Now who is exactly is the best All Weather route horse in the nation? Student Council? Tiago? I submit that it might be Leonnatus Anteas with another year's maturity under his belt. He has an explosive turn of foot and is very consistent, he has also run some very nice figures on Polytrack that indicate that he could run with the best out there.
Ketchikan - I loved him in the buildup to the Derby, I thought he had the potential to be the very best. He fell out of the spotlight with an injury that has kept him on the sidelines until now. Watch for him to come through many of the minor stakes races at the Fair Grounds before trying out the big boys in the east. Similar to Mineshaft's campaign. He had very impressive speed around two turns as a 3yo and speed like that is a huge weapon on the handicap circuit.
Turf Male
Bold Hawk - If you saw his race in the Hollywood Derby this will come as no surprise. He did not get clear running until late and he closed stoutly. This is a big bodied horse who will benefit from time to develop. Toner knows how to campaign a top level Turf horse and what I love most about Bold Hawk is that he will run all day long. A big change from many of the Americans who are stretched to the max at 12f.
Champs Elysees - Dansili, Banks Hill, Heat Haze, Cacique and Intercontinental all come from the same remarkable mare Hasili. All of them were G-1 quality horses and some were even champions. Champs Elysees is the latest Hasili offspring to hit the American shores and despite his patchy European record he may be a monster among American opposition. He was improving towards the end of his 4yo season with Fabre and it would not shock me if he kicked it into another gear under Frankel. Being good enough to run second in a G-1 in Europe usually means you'll win your fair share here. Not to mention the tremendous track record of his family and connections.
Inca King - He is my early pick for best Turf miler. He's got great speed but in his last few starts he's been learning to rate and come from off the pace. Not unlike Kip Deville who was very speedy as a 3yo but was fine tuned to become the best miler in the nation. Inca King has the tools to duplicate that feat.
Turf Female
Rosinka - It may have escaped a few people notice that this was a very difficult horse to get past in 2007. Royal Highness at her peak couldn't get by and Lahudood barely managed it. Injury kept her out of the Breeders Cup but you know that Graham Motion is a master at keeping his Turf horses going at a high level for years on end. Rosinka is good enough to fill the void left by Film Maker.
Sprinter
Idiot Proof - Obvious pick again but I think Idiot Proof will be the dominant sprinter all year long. Even when Fabulous Strike comes back. Idiot Proof is brilliantly fast but does not need the lead. The BC is held at his home track and all year long I think the race will look like his to lose.
Divine Park - A bit of a forgotten horse, he's undefeated in 3 starts for McLaughlin and is capable of sprinting or going a mile. He was still very unprofessional when he saw him last
but horses like CP West and Street Magician could not handle him even though he had trouble running straight. Look for him in races like the Carter and Met Mile.
3yo Filly
Backseat Rhythm - This filly has impressed me with her consistency around two turns and the competition she's faced. I love horses who improve as the distance increases and Backseat Rhythm went from barely useful to one of the best 2yo's in the nation with a step up in trip. The form from her maiden has worked out superbly with Country Star and Mushka both winning stakes races. Although she has lost twice to Indian Blessing there is no shame in losing to the 2yo champion. Her ability to come from off the pace will put her in a good position next year.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: A good mix of top form being confirmed and some upsets. We saw some 2yo's to get excited about in the stakes at Aqueduct and Churchill and some top quality Turf racing at Hollywood. Pure Clan stayed undefeated with another solid performance in the Golden Rod. Cowboy Cal and Sea Chanter quietly made cases for being the top Turf 2yo's for their gender and Daytona swept the two fall Turf Derby's in California and was strangely reminiscent of Sweet Return.
Performance of the Week: Well this has to go to Daaher doesn't it. This colt has been a favorite of mine for a while now and even he surprised me with this performance. I thought Midnight Lute would carry all before him but little Daaher just shot away at the head of the stretch and looked as if he could have easily gone further. He's just a tiny little guy but this Canadian bred has me really excited for next season. If he is capable of this already he could be untouchable next year. The Lute is no pushover and it was a massive effort from the pocket rocket to claim his scalp at this stage in his career.
Race of the Week: The Remsen was a real nail biter, most of the attention goes to Court Vision because of the real determination he showed to fight off the traffic problems and nail Atoned at the wire but don't forget that Atoned had some real trouble in this race as well. He nearly fell down on the back stretch when he clipped heels with Big Truck. He was still able to circle the field and open up in mid-stretch. I think both are superior colts and ones to watch in the future.
Flop of the Weekend: It's a toss up between Nobiz like Showbiz and every horse in the Clark Handicap aside from the winner. Nobiz was just woeful and looked nothing like the horse who reeled off three straight wins in New York. I think he was likely over the top after a long season but it still was a massive disappointment for his fans. I will try not to disparage AP Arrow but when he is winning a race like the Clark Handicap it causes you to question the quality of every other horse in the race. Istan had no kick at the extended distance, Magna Graduate was simply dreadful and even Diamond Stripes did not perform anywhere near to his normal level despite plunking up for yet another 3rd place finish.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: With upsets in many of the big stakes races we did not have as much movement atop the leaderboard as predicted but we did see one massive change. Precious Kitten put herself in the pole position to be named top Female Turf horse. Lahudood, who will also get a lot of votes, slipped down to 4th place. Precious Kitten may not be a media darling but she's been huge all year. She's had a solid campaign and has compiled a record of 9-4-4-0. Her only poor race came in the the Breeders Cup where she was taken out of the running by Simply Perfect. All her starts have come in Graded Stakes company and she has a pair of G-1 wins. She is definitely the kind of champion I could get behind.
Tip O’the Cap: I'd like to tip my cap to sporting connections who have decided to keep promising horses in training. Fans get pretty frustrated when owners decide to take the money and run and some start to take a permanent negative view of the sport. But we have Midnight Lute, Daaher, Precious Kitten and even Wait A While coming back for another campaign. Let's not forget that Wait A While is a 3yo champion and her connections are bringing her back at 5! Those are just a few of the horses who were in action this weekend who are coming back. There are still plenty more and we have much to look forward to.
KC Handicapping: It was a heavy week for handicapping at KC. We had 15 selections in 10 races and thankfully we were slightly profitable. Thorn Song is making himself into a blog favorite pretty quickly with his gutsy performances and generous prices. Mushka was also very impressive with her last to first rush. Midnight Lute turned out to be not so easy money as Daaher improved much faster than I thought. Wait A While also ran into a buzz saw in Precious Kitten. City Attraction was also a narrow loser and had any of those 3 managed to win we would have made even more money for the weekend. It almost feels like an opportunity lost when so many of my choices ran great races but we still only managed a narrow profit.
My public handicapping continues to be poor as the CD selections went 12-1-4-1 with Old Man Buck the only winner. We had some tough beats but it was simply a poor day.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 15(10)-3-2-2 (+$1.80 +6.00% ROI)
Overall record: 430(195)-78-73-61 (-$44.40 -5.16% ROI)
Performance of the Week: Well this has to go to Daaher doesn't it. This colt has been a favorite of mine for a while now and even he surprised me with this performance. I thought Midnight Lute would carry all before him but little Daaher just shot away at the head of the stretch and looked as if he could have easily gone further. He's just a tiny little guy but this Canadian bred has me really excited for next season. If he is capable of this already he could be untouchable next year. The Lute is no pushover and it was a massive effort from the pocket rocket to claim his scalp at this stage in his career.
Race of the Week: The Remsen was a real nail biter, most of the attention goes to Court Vision because of the real determination he showed to fight off the traffic problems and nail Atoned at the wire but don't forget that Atoned had some real trouble in this race as well. He nearly fell down on the back stretch when he clipped heels with Big Truck. He was still able to circle the field and open up in mid-stretch. I think both are superior colts and ones to watch in the future.
Flop of the Weekend: It's a toss up between Nobiz like Showbiz and every horse in the Clark Handicap aside from the winner. Nobiz was just woeful and looked nothing like the horse who reeled off three straight wins in New York. I think he was likely over the top after a long season but it still was a massive disappointment for his fans. I will try not to disparage AP Arrow but when he is winning a race like the Clark Handicap it causes you to question the quality of every other horse in the race. Istan had no kick at the extended distance, Magna Graduate was simply dreadful and even Diamond Stripes did not perform anywhere near to his normal level despite plunking up for yet another 3rd place finish.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: With upsets in many of the big stakes races we did not have as much movement atop the leaderboard as predicted but we did see one massive change. Precious Kitten put herself in the pole position to be named top Female Turf horse. Lahudood, who will also get a lot of votes, slipped down to 4th place. Precious Kitten may not be a media darling but she's been huge all year. She's had a solid campaign and has compiled a record of 9-4-4-0. Her only poor race came in the the Breeders Cup where she was taken out of the running by Simply Perfect. All her starts have come in Graded Stakes company and she has a pair of G-1 wins. She is definitely the kind of champion I could get behind.
Tip O’the Cap: I'd like to tip my cap to sporting connections who have decided to keep promising horses in training. Fans get pretty frustrated when owners decide to take the money and run and some start to take a permanent negative view of the sport. But we have Midnight Lute, Daaher, Precious Kitten and even Wait A While coming back for another campaign. Let's not forget that Wait A While is a 3yo champion and her connections are bringing her back at 5! Those are just a few of the horses who were in action this weekend who are coming back. There are still plenty more and we have much to look forward to.
KC Handicapping: It was a heavy week for handicapping at KC. We had 15 selections in 10 races and thankfully we were slightly profitable. Thorn Song is making himself into a blog favorite pretty quickly with his gutsy performances and generous prices. Mushka was also very impressive with her last to first rush. Midnight Lute turned out to be not so easy money as Daaher improved much faster than I thought. Wait A While also ran into a buzz saw in Precious Kitten. City Attraction was also a narrow loser and had any of those 3 managed to win we would have made even more money for the weekend. It almost feels like an opportunity lost when so many of my choices ran great races but we still only managed a narrow profit.
My public handicapping continues to be poor as the CD selections went 12-1-4-1 with Old Man Buck the only winner. We had some tough beats but it was simply a poor day.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 15(10)-3-2-2 (+$1.80 +6.00% ROI)
Overall record: 430(195)-78-73-61 (-$44.40 -5.16% ROI)
Friday, November 23, 2007
Holiday Weekend Picks and Analysis - Part 4
Demoiselle Stakes
I'm not sure how that bettors will perceive this race but I sure hope that there is a fair price to be had on Mushka in this race. Again this is another Zayat 2yo and I suppose I'm hoping they have a big weekend but with a filly like Mushka it might be less hoping and more reality. Mott started her out on the grass like he does with many of his 2yo's and she ran a great race but was robbed of any real chance by a huge early move. She was cut down late by Backseat Rhythm and Country Star. Those two are some of the finest fillies in the nation. Very possibly the #2 and #3 behind champion Indian Blessing. Mushka switched to dirt next time out and it came up sloppy. There was no early move from Kent D but she appeared to be struggling with the surface. She just got up in the end and I think it was to her credit that she ran so well because she did not look like the same horse. Although she has never run on a fast dirt track she still has the third highest figures in the race. Empire Maker has gotten off to a hot start as a sire and Bill Mott has been great all year long. Expect The End, Sunday Elegance and Elusive Lady should ensure a quick pace and Mushka ought to be able to get to them.
Mushka
Cigar Mile Stakes
There won't be much money to be made from backing Midnight Lute in this race but he does appear to be such a sure thing that I might just do it anyway. The Lute has always been a good horse but now that his breathing problem has been corrected he's looked like a monster. Baffert has said many times that this is the best horse he's ever had. Baffert had great success in this race with Congaree who beat much tougher fields. If this horse is better than Congaree than he'll win for fun. Baffert also has a long history of successful shipping to Aqueduct so everything seems in line. High percentage connections with a good track record in this race, blazing recent works, limitless talent and race conditions that were seemingly made for him. I do expect Daaher to chase him home though. Daaher is the horse I am most looking forward to for next year. Still it would surprise me if he was able to handle the Lute at this stage. I'm looking for a solid second place finish from him.
Midnight Lute
Matriarch Stakes
This looked set to be a division defining race but it lost a bit of luster with Citronnade and Vacare pulling out. Both fillies would have had a huge impact on this race and Citronnade still had an outside chance of winning the division. Precious Kitten has a chance to do so but would need win big. Her form all year long has been fantastic and I think she has a big shot in this race. I thought Vacare would have been the horse to beat, now with her out I think Precious Kitten, Wait A While and Lady Of Venice will decide this. Naissance Royale looked hot in her last but when a field comes up short and there is so much quality I think class will tell. Lady Of Venice won the Cash Call Mile facing similar company under identical conditions but her last race was horrible and in any event I think Wait A While is the one with the most upside. She has not always run her best but firm courses bring out the best in her and when she does her best, Precious Kitten and Lady Of Venice have been left toiling in her wake. Both Precious Kitten and Lady Of Venice are more pure miler types than Wait A While but I'm hoping some good old California sunshine does her some good and we see her at her imperious best. If I were playing a straight trifecta I'd put Precious Kitten second and Lady Of Venice third.
Wait A While
Hollywood Derby
I'm not sure why I always find myself looking to oppose Nobiz Like Showbiz, I have nothing against the horse. I just always see him as beatable on paper. Sometimes like in the Florida Derby and BC Mile that has led me to some nice scores. Other times, like in the Hall of Fame and Jamaica that tactic hasn't panned out so well. Here in the Hollywood Derby I find myself looking elsewhere again. Not because I think he can't win but because I don't think his price will be a proper reflection of his chances. He is unbeaten on the grass aside from the BC Mile, that is a strong statistic going for him. You also have to love the way he slammed Red Giant in the Jamaica and stuck around in the Mile when things didn't go his way but you also have the enticing Medici Code who is nearly perfect on the grass in this country (if you discount DQ's). Twilight Meteor who was just a nose behind Nobiz and we know he'll love the distance. And of course Bold Hawk, a fast improving 3yo who looks to be in over his head but is running for one of the most conservative trainers in the land. I think I'm going to settle on Bold Hawk over Nobiz. I can't say I love Samyn in the saddle but he is a useful turf rider and he knows the horse. He settled him down beautifully two back when Bold Hawk was extremely rank early and as passive as a lamb later in the race. This big bodied gelding has been facing mostly older horses until the Hawthorne Derby where he bulled his way through the field and beat Twilight Meteor by a head. If the Pletcher horse can be used as a form guide that put him roughly on par with Nobiz and he's still got plenty of improving to do after just 5 career starts. James Toner is as good a turf trainer as you'll find anywhere and he very rarely sends his horses to the west coast. He is worth a long look but you might want to hedge with the favorite.
Bold Hawk
Nobiz Like Showbiz
I'm not sure how that bettors will perceive this race but I sure hope that there is a fair price to be had on Mushka in this race. Again this is another Zayat 2yo and I suppose I'm hoping they have a big weekend but with a filly like Mushka it might be less hoping and more reality. Mott started her out on the grass like he does with many of his 2yo's and she ran a great race but was robbed of any real chance by a huge early move. She was cut down late by Backseat Rhythm and Country Star. Those two are some of the finest fillies in the nation. Very possibly the #2 and #3 behind champion Indian Blessing. Mushka switched to dirt next time out and it came up sloppy. There was no early move from Kent D but she appeared to be struggling with the surface. She just got up in the end and I think it was to her credit that she ran so well because she did not look like the same horse. Although she has never run on a fast dirt track she still has the third highest figures in the race. Empire Maker has gotten off to a hot start as a sire and Bill Mott has been great all year long. Expect The End, Sunday Elegance and Elusive Lady should ensure a quick pace and Mushka ought to be able to get to them.
Mushka
Cigar Mile Stakes
There won't be much money to be made from backing Midnight Lute in this race but he does appear to be such a sure thing that I might just do it anyway. The Lute has always been a good horse but now that his breathing problem has been corrected he's looked like a monster. Baffert has said many times that this is the best horse he's ever had. Baffert had great success in this race with Congaree who beat much tougher fields. If this horse is better than Congaree than he'll win for fun. Baffert also has a long history of successful shipping to Aqueduct so everything seems in line. High percentage connections with a good track record in this race, blazing recent works, limitless talent and race conditions that were seemingly made for him. I do expect Daaher to chase him home though. Daaher is the horse I am most looking forward to for next year. Still it would surprise me if he was able to handle the Lute at this stage. I'm looking for a solid second place finish from him.
Midnight Lute
Matriarch Stakes
This looked set to be a division defining race but it lost a bit of luster with Citronnade and Vacare pulling out. Both fillies would have had a huge impact on this race and Citronnade still had an outside chance of winning the division. Precious Kitten has a chance to do so but would need win big. Her form all year long has been fantastic and I think she has a big shot in this race. I thought Vacare would have been the horse to beat, now with her out I think Precious Kitten, Wait A While and Lady Of Venice will decide this. Naissance Royale looked hot in her last but when a field comes up short and there is so much quality I think class will tell. Lady Of Venice won the Cash Call Mile facing similar company under identical conditions but her last race was horrible and in any event I think Wait A While is the one with the most upside. She has not always run her best but firm courses bring out the best in her and when she does her best, Precious Kitten and Lady Of Venice have been left toiling in her wake. Both Precious Kitten and Lady Of Venice are more pure miler types than Wait A While but I'm hoping some good old California sunshine does her some good and we see her at her imperious best. If I were playing a straight trifecta I'd put Precious Kitten second and Lady Of Venice third.
Wait A While
Hollywood Derby
I'm not sure why I always find myself looking to oppose Nobiz Like Showbiz, I have nothing against the horse. I just always see him as beatable on paper. Sometimes like in the Florida Derby and BC Mile that has led me to some nice scores. Other times, like in the Hall of Fame and Jamaica that tactic hasn't panned out so well. Here in the Hollywood Derby I find myself looking elsewhere again. Not because I think he can't win but because I don't think his price will be a proper reflection of his chances. He is unbeaten on the grass aside from the BC Mile, that is a strong statistic going for him. You also have to love the way he slammed Red Giant in the Jamaica and stuck around in the Mile when things didn't go his way but you also have the enticing Medici Code who is nearly perfect on the grass in this country (if you discount DQ's). Twilight Meteor who was just a nose behind Nobiz and we know he'll love the distance. And of course Bold Hawk, a fast improving 3yo who looks to be in over his head but is running for one of the most conservative trainers in the land. I think I'm going to settle on Bold Hawk over Nobiz. I can't say I love Samyn in the saddle but he is a useful turf rider and he knows the horse. He settled him down beautifully two back when Bold Hawk was extremely rank early and as passive as a lamb later in the race. This big bodied gelding has been facing mostly older horses until the Hawthorne Derby where he bulled his way through the field and beat Twilight Meteor by a head. If the Pletcher horse can be used as a form guide that put him roughly on par with Nobiz and he's still got plenty of improving to do after just 5 career starts. James Toner is as good a turf trainer as you'll find anywhere and he very rarely sends his horses to the west coast. He is worth a long look but you might want to hedge with the favorite.
Bold Hawk
Nobiz Like Showbiz
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Holiday Weekend Picks and Analysis - Part 3
I love the annual 2yo Festival at Churchill Downs. They run 12 races all for 2yo's including 4 stakes races. The fields are usually excellent and it's one of those days that I always feel compelled to handicap the whole card. Here are my single selections for each Churchill Downs race on Saturday. As usual you can get the PP's of every race I give selections for at Kennedy's Corridor by clicking on the race numbers below.
Churchill Downs
Race #1 - Temper Temper
Race #2 - EZ Phone Home
Race #3 - Anachini
Race #4 - Slow Sand
Race #5 - Thirteen Moons
Race #6 - Major General
Race #7 - High Surf
Race #8 - Old Man Buck
Race #9 - CJ's Leelee
Race #10 - Macho Again
Race #11 - Halo Najib
Race #12 - Tizzy
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
Amongst the tasty menu of 2yo races I find this the most savory. The bettors will be somewhat indecisive over who the standouts are in this race but I have my mind firmly made up. I think Halo Najib is a very very good 2yo with a bright future. I think he is every bit as talented as Cool Coal Man and Wicked Style and I prefer his running style. His maiden victory was colossal, he looked like he could be a legitimate stakes horse off that performance and he confirmed the form next out when he made a wide move for the lead on the far turn and put away his rivals before being caught late on the outside by a late runner. Patience is a virtue and I'm not sure why so many jocks make early runs with stalkers waiting an extra hundred yards would still see them get first run on the late runners but it wouldn't leave them exposed. Halo Najib looked as if he thought the job was done once he put away St. Joe. He didn't get much of a look at Court Vision on his outside, and Court Vision by the way is a very useful 2yo himself. Zayat Stables was done very well in buying 2yo's for racing in this crop. They dominated the maidens at Saratoga and Keeneland, now I think we'll start to see the fruit of that in stakes races. Halo Najib is the pick of the lot in my opinion. A very handsome chestnut with good action and the natural ability to stalk the pace and quicken when asked. I think he'll go right by Wicked Style and Cool Coal Man who will be duking it out on the front end.
Halo Najib
Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash
I've had some very nice scores in this race in the past and once again I feel pretty confident about this renewal. It is often a race where emerging sprint talents confirm their status in the top tier. In this year's running it's the coming of age for Talent Search and Benny The Bull. They're the only ones good enough to win this race aside from perhaps High Finance on his best day. But High Finance is so inconsistent and is mostly unproven at the distance. I think the presence of legitimate speed like Talent Search and the rabbit Holly Time will see him fold tamely. Talent Search is the speed of the speed. I identified him as such in the BC Sprint and if you can lead that race early on you can definitely lead this one. Once the rest of the speed wilts he will be the horse still standing. But in this scenario I think the early pace will take it's toll and Benny The Bull will roll on past him. Laurel is fairly kind to closing sprinters and I think Benny is sitting on a breakout race. He does not have any recorded workouts since the Breeders Cup but don't let that dissuade you. Dutrow has his horses fit when he sends them to G-1's.
Benny The Bull
Churchill Downs
Race #1 - Temper Temper
Race #2 - EZ Phone Home
Race #3 - Anachini
Race #4 - Slow Sand
Race #5 - Thirteen Moons
Race #6 - Major General
Race #7 - High Surf
Race #8 - Old Man Buck
Race #9 - CJ's Leelee
Race #10 - Macho Again
Race #11 - Halo Najib
Race #12 - Tizzy
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
Amongst the tasty menu of 2yo races I find this the most savory. The bettors will be somewhat indecisive over who the standouts are in this race but I have my mind firmly made up. I think Halo Najib is a very very good 2yo with a bright future. I think he is every bit as talented as Cool Coal Man and Wicked Style and I prefer his running style. His maiden victory was colossal, he looked like he could be a legitimate stakes horse off that performance and he confirmed the form next out when he made a wide move for the lead on the far turn and put away his rivals before being caught late on the outside by a late runner. Patience is a virtue and I'm not sure why so many jocks make early runs with stalkers waiting an extra hundred yards would still see them get first run on the late runners but it wouldn't leave them exposed. Halo Najib looked as if he thought the job was done once he put away St. Joe. He didn't get much of a look at Court Vision on his outside, and Court Vision by the way is a very useful 2yo himself. Zayat Stables was done very well in buying 2yo's for racing in this crop. They dominated the maidens at Saratoga and Keeneland, now I think we'll start to see the fruit of that in stakes races. Halo Najib is the pick of the lot in my opinion. A very handsome chestnut with good action and the natural ability to stalk the pace and quicken when asked. I think he'll go right by Wicked Style and Cool Coal Man who will be duking it out on the front end.
Halo Najib
Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash
I've had some very nice scores in this race in the past and once again I feel pretty confident about this renewal. It is often a race where emerging sprint talents confirm their status in the top tier. In this year's running it's the coming of age for Talent Search and Benny The Bull. They're the only ones good enough to win this race aside from perhaps High Finance on his best day. But High Finance is so inconsistent and is mostly unproven at the distance. I think the presence of legitimate speed like Talent Search and the rabbit Holly Time will see him fold tamely. Talent Search is the speed of the speed. I identified him as such in the BC Sprint and if you can lead that race early on you can definitely lead this one. Once the rest of the speed wilts he will be the horse still standing. But in this scenario I think the early pace will take it's toll and Benny The Bull will roll on past him. Laurel is fairly kind to closing sprinters and I think Benny is sitting on a breakout race. He does not have any recorded workouts since the Breeders Cup but don't let that dissuade you. Dutrow has his horses fit when he sends them to G-1's.
Benny The Bull
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Holiday Weekend Picks and Analysis - Part 2
River City Handicap
Fall racing after the Breeders Cup is often about emerging talents especially in the older horse ranks. Many horses who get good and come through their conditions over the summer step up into stakes company and many of them go on winning streaks because they're improving faster than their connections willingness to step them up. We saw it last week with Criminologist and Hunting and I think this weeks fast improver is Thorn Song. Thorn Song was my favorite horse of the Saratoga meet. He achieved two game victories in allowance races at generous odds. Since leaving the Spa he's been beaten twice but both times he ran fantastically and his connections have to be loving his consistency. In his last race he was a bit further off the pace early and made a move for the lead around the turn. He was gunned down late by Fishy Advice but it was his first start over soft turf and his first try in stakes company. A different type of ride and a more firm course should see him return to winning ways. This race will not be without it's challenges though. Cosmonaut is the class of the field and he might be tough if Carlos Martin has figured him out. A classy and consistent non winner like Cosmonaut could easily turn into a dominant horse with either maturity or a key change. We saw it with Manduro this year and Aldebaran in the past. But until I know otherwise I'm opposing Cosmonaut. Ascertain is the scary horse in this race and I may use him just to hedge. Ascertain has put it all together this year and no one has been able to handle him on the grass. He's won going short and long and in his comeback he ran a pretty good race. He was a little too eager early on but he still had enough to hold off Remington Park specialist Red Rock Creek. He should improve off that race and that will make him extremely dangerous. If you're interested in a real bomb take a look at Skipped Bail. This Canadian should be a whopping price on the board but he is just starting to get good. His connections suspected he was good last year but he never put it together. This year he's been a different horse and he just missed winning a stakes race last time out against some very useful horses. He started to come hard in the lane but second place finisher Royal Challenger started getting out and while there was no contact Skipped Bail shied from him and it definitely cost him momentum. He may have gone right by had Royal Challenger held a straight course. He should be coming hard from the back and he just may surprise this field.
Thorn Song
Ascertain
Citation Handicap
I think this is a three horse race between Crested, Independent George and Palace Episode. Crested is a horse I have had an eye on since last summer. He has always flirted with success and many times has run races that suggest he is a very capable horse but for the most part he has never arrived. I think one of the problems for him is that he is not a miler. He is 6-0-1-0 at a mile and is a perfect 2 for 2 at this distance as well as a useful 5-1-3-1 at 9f. Clearly this suits him better. Wally Dollase is a trainer I have the utmost respect for and he is quite good at getting results off of layoffs. He is also very good at shipping his horses to spots where they fit. Crested fired a bullet in his last work for this race and should be good to go. He should sit right in behind Silent Name and Willow O'Wisp and should get first run. Independent George is running in here for another savvy trainer, Graham Motion. Independent George is a late blooming consistent allowance type but Motion obviously feels that he is ready to take the next step up. over the summer he dealt defeat to Dirge, a horse who is 5-4-1-0 lifetime and in his last race he made a bit of a premature move. Nakatani was tracking Astronomer Royal and he moved when that one moved. Unfortunately for him Astronomer Royal was a fraud and Independent George ran out of gas ahead of schedule. He still held on for 4th and the field that day was far tougher than this one is. I seriously don't know why Cosmonaut is not in this race. He'd be a huge favorite. Independent George did not make the trip for nothing, he'll be in the mix at the finish. Palace Episode will try to rally from far back so he'll be hoping that Silent Name runs off in the first half. He is a fantastic horse on firm ground and a bad horse on soft ground. I toss his soft races completely. His good to firm ground record is actually very very good and if the crowd notices that he might be the favorite. Both in Europe and in America he has shown that he can run with real G-1 horses on firmish ground and there aren't many real G-1 horses in this race. He has the class edge. I'm going to use all three and just hope the prices don't evaporate.
Independent George
Crested
Palace Episode
Fall racing after the Breeders Cup is often about emerging talents especially in the older horse ranks. Many horses who get good and come through their conditions over the summer step up into stakes company and many of them go on winning streaks because they're improving faster than their connections willingness to step them up. We saw it last week with Criminologist and Hunting and I think this weeks fast improver is Thorn Song. Thorn Song was my favorite horse of the Saratoga meet. He achieved two game victories in allowance races at generous odds. Since leaving the Spa he's been beaten twice but both times he ran fantastically and his connections have to be loving his consistency. In his last race he was a bit further off the pace early and made a move for the lead around the turn. He was gunned down late by Fishy Advice but it was his first start over soft turf and his first try in stakes company. A different type of ride and a more firm course should see him return to winning ways. This race will not be without it's challenges though. Cosmonaut is the class of the field and he might be tough if Carlos Martin has figured him out. A classy and consistent non winner like Cosmonaut could easily turn into a dominant horse with either maturity or a key change. We saw it with Manduro this year and Aldebaran in the past. But until I know otherwise I'm opposing Cosmonaut. Ascertain is the scary horse in this race and I may use him just to hedge. Ascertain has put it all together this year and no one has been able to handle him on the grass. He's won going short and long and in his comeback he ran a pretty good race. He was a little too eager early on but he still had enough to hold off Remington Park specialist Red Rock Creek. He should improve off that race and that will make him extremely dangerous. If you're interested in a real bomb take a look at Skipped Bail. This Canadian should be a whopping price on the board but he is just starting to get good. His connections suspected he was good last year but he never put it together. This year he's been a different horse and he just missed winning a stakes race last time out against some very useful horses. He started to come hard in the lane but second place finisher Royal Challenger started getting out and while there was no contact Skipped Bail shied from him and it definitely cost him momentum. He may have gone right by had Royal Challenger held a straight course. He should be coming hard from the back and he just may surprise this field.
Thorn Song
Ascertain
Citation Handicap
I think this is a three horse race between Crested, Independent George and Palace Episode. Crested is a horse I have had an eye on since last summer. He has always flirted with success and many times has run races that suggest he is a very capable horse but for the most part he has never arrived. I think one of the problems for him is that he is not a miler. He is 6-0-1-0 at a mile and is a perfect 2 for 2 at this distance as well as a useful 5-1-3-1 at 9f. Clearly this suits him better. Wally Dollase is a trainer I have the utmost respect for and he is quite good at getting results off of layoffs. He is also very good at shipping his horses to spots where they fit. Crested fired a bullet in his last work for this race and should be good to go. He should sit right in behind Silent Name and Willow O'Wisp and should get first run. Independent George is running in here for another savvy trainer, Graham Motion. Independent George is a late blooming consistent allowance type but Motion obviously feels that he is ready to take the next step up. over the summer he dealt defeat to Dirge, a horse who is 5-4-1-0 lifetime and in his last race he made a bit of a premature move. Nakatani was tracking Astronomer Royal and he moved when that one moved. Unfortunately for him Astronomer Royal was a fraud and Independent George ran out of gas ahead of schedule. He still held on for 4th and the field that day was far tougher than this one is. I seriously don't know why Cosmonaut is not in this race. He'd be a huge favorite. Independent George did not make the trip for nothing, he'll be in the mix at the finish. Palace Episode will try to rally from far back so he'll be hoping that Silent Name runs off in the first half. He is a fantastic horse on firm ground and a bad horse on soft ground. I toss his soft races completely. His good to firm ground record is actually very very good and if the crowd notices that he might be the favorite. Both in Europe and in America he has shown that he can run with real G-1 horses on firmish ground and there aren't many real G-1 horses in this race. He has the class edge. I'm going to use all three and just hope the prices don't evaporate.
Independent George
Crested
Palace Episode
Holiday Weekend Picks and Analysis - Part 1
Falls City Handicap
Panty Raid is ripe for an upset in my opinion. Her dirt form is nothing to write home about, in fact it's worse than many of the alternatives. At 6/5 Panty Raid is fool's gold. She's been phenomenal on all other surfaces and just average on dirt. Tessa Blue could be the lone speed unless Lampoon is sent. Tessa Blue however is going to be bet down off that monster race last time out. That race was no where near as good as it looks on paper. But she still has a great chance to win this race and if pressed for a selection I would likely name her as mine. Since stretching out and changing tactics she has been an absolute bear. I'd be shocked if she missed the frame however she at the price I'm not sure if she's worth playing in straight wagers. I'm thinking she'll be about 2/1 at post time. I'd like someone who pays a little better. For a closer like Kettleoneup it's hard to get favorable pace scenario's on a consistent basis. She outclassed her rivals last out but is far more likely to plod up for a 3rd place finish in this spot. High Heels is just very inconsistent. She can be phenomenal or terrible. They seem to be dedicated to going to the back with her but I'd love to see her put into the race earlier like she was in the spring. Delicate Dynamite looks very enticing as a longshot play to augment Tessa Blue. She has tactical speed and can hopefully stay in touch with Tessa early on. She is on a 6 race losing streak and has been losing ground in the stretch in almost everyone of those races. That is definitely a bad sign but if you look deeper at her performances you'll notice that all her last 7 races have come on off tracks or on different surfaces. Delicate Dynamite is at her best on a fast dirt track in my opinion. Her last race suggests at least that she is near top form, as does her solid bullet workout. If she gets ideal conditions for the first time since February she might be very tough . Tessa Blue will still have a pace advantage and Panty Raid a class advantage but I think she might be worth a tilt at 8/1.
Delicate Dynamite
Tessa Blue
Fall Highweight Handicap
The optional claimer at Belmont on Sept 19th will likely turn out to be a key race. City Attraction held off Grand Champion that day and will look to repeat the feat in this spot. Grand Champion since went out and took a minor sprint stakes at Laurel while City Attraction has been sitting on the bench. I prefer the Dutrow trained City Attraction to confirm the form of the optional claimer and once again fend off Grand Champion. Dutrow is great with sprinters and excellent bringing them off the shelf. There should be a good amount of pace but City Attraction can easily adapt to any scenario. Grand Champion on the other hand seems to hang a bit and has a habit of finding trouble in running. I would love to see Around The Cape pull this one off and had he raced more recently I'd take him on top in a flash. But the year layoff scares me. Don't be surprised at all to see this horse run a great race but just come up short. Mott is not usually this aggressive in his placement with horses coming back so he must really be impressed with him. Use Around The Cape in the second and third spots with Grand Champion underneath City Attraction.
City Attraction
Panty Raid is ripe for an upset in my opinion. Her dirt form is nothing to write home about, in fact it's worse than many of the alternatives. At 6/5 Panty Raid is fool's gold. She's been phenomenal on all other surfaces and just average on dirt. Tessa Blue could be the lone speed unless Lampoon is sent. Tessa Blue however is going to be bet down off that monster race last time out. That race was no where near as good as it looks on paper. But she still has a great chance to win this race and if pressed for a selection I would likely name her as mine. Since stretching out and changing tactics she has been an absolute bear. I'd be shocked if she missed the frame however she at the price I'm not sure if she's worth playing in straight wagers. I'm thinking she'll be about 2/1 at post time. I'd like someone who pays a little better. For a closer like Kettleoneup it's hard to get favorable pace scenario's on a consistent basis. She outclassed her rivals last out but is far more likely to plod up for a 3rd place finish in this spot. High Heels is just very inconsistent. She can be phenomenal or terrible. They seem to be dedicated to going to the back with her but I'd love to see her put into the race earlier like she was in the spring. Delicate Dynamite looks very enticing as a longshot play to augment Tessa Blue. She has tactical speed and can hopefully stay in touch with Tessa early on. She is on a 6 race losing streak and has been losing ground in the stretch in almost everyone of those races. That is definitely a bad sign but if you look deeper at her performances you'll notice that all her last 7 races have come on off tracks or on different surfaces. Delicate Dynamite is at her best on a fast dirt track in my opinion. Her last race suggests at least that she is near top form, as does her solid bullet workout. If she gets ideal conditions for the first time since February she might be very tough . Tessa Blue will still have a pace advantage and Panty Raid a class advantage but I think she might be worth a tilt at 8/1.
Delicate Dynamite
Tessa Blue
Fall Highweight Handicap
The optional claimer at Belmont on Sept 19th will likely turn out to be a key race. City Attraction held off Grand Champion that day and will look to repeat the feat in this spot. Grand Champion since went out and took a minor sprint stakes at Laurel while City Attraction has been sitting on the bench. I prefer the Dutrow trained City Attraction to confirm the form of the optional claimer and once again fend off Grand Champion. Dutrow is great with sprinters and excellent bringing them off the shelf. There should be a good amount of pace but City Attraction can easily adapt to any scenario. Grand Champion on the other hand seems to hang a bit and has a habit of finding trouble in running. I would love to see Around The Cape pull this one off and had he raced more recently I'd take him on top in a flash. But the year layoff scares me. Don't be surprised at all to see this horse run a great race but just come up short. Mott is not usually this aggressive in his placement with horses coming back so he must really be impressed with him. Use Around The Cape in the second and third spots with Grand Champion underneath City Attraction.
City Attraction
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Champs Who Weren't Champs
Racing is occasionally blessed to have several good horses within the same division at the same time but usually one horse proves themselves to be slightly better or maybe they simply catch the public eye to a greater degree. In any event the horse who ends up being crowned champion is rightly remembered and often the one who fails to win the championship falls through the cracks as time goes on.
Here are some of my favorite uncrowned champions in chronological order. Some of them did win championships in other years of their career but were outshone during certain campaigns. This is not to say they were necessary wronged when they failed to win a championship it's just recognizing that they too were brilliant.
Swaps - 1955
It's hard to believe that a Derby winner who went 9-8-1-0 during the campaign would be overlooked for year end honors but he had the great misfortune of competing against Nashua who beat him decisively in a match race. Swaps was not right that day and many of his fans dismiss that race as a poor representation of what he was really capable of but the rest of his campaign needed no excuses. He won the Kentucky Derby in fine style going straight to the front. He had to deal with some early pressure and then a massive challenge from Nashua at the head of the lane but he turned back the challenge and scored by two lengths. He then went back home to California and set a new world record for 1 1/16th when taking the Californian in 1:40 2/5. He also proved that he was no one surface wonder when equalling the American record for 1 3/16 on the Turf in the American Derby. Aside from Nashua no horse really got near him. He went on to be Horse Of The Year in 1956 but his 55 season was worth some accolades as well.
Gun Bow - 1964
Gun Bow's epitaph should probably read something like "He lived in the time of Kelso". That pretty much explains why he was not a decorated hero. Kelso won everything there was for a 5 year period. A lot of very good horses failed to win championships during that era. Gun Bow was the best of the rest. In 1964 Gun Bow went 16-8-4-2, he raced at 8 different tracks from California to New York. He ran on both surfaces from 7f to 12f and carried as much as 132lbs successfully. He even managed to go 2-2 in head to head match up's with Kelso. Sadly this was not enough to overcome the mighty Kelso for year end honours but he still had a fantastic campaign.
Easy Goer - 1989
This is probably the strongest case anyone ever had had for splitting an award and giving it to both parties. Sunday Silence definitely deserved an award for his season but look at Easy Goer's record that year and try to imagine seeing a horse that good these days. He won all three of his Triple Crown prep races including the Gotham where he very nearly broke Dr. Fager's record for a mile. He then competed in all three Triple Crown races before capping off his year with a brilliant sweep of all the major G-1's in NY and a second in the BC Classic. He won the Travers, Whitney, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He went 11-8-3-0 in all with 5 G-1 wins, the only horse to beat him in 1989 was Sunday Silence and two of those triumphs were very narrow indeed.
Star Of Cozzene - 1993
His duels with Lure drew comparisons to the great rivalry between Affirmed and Alydar. The only difference was that, unlike Alydar, Star Of Cozzene could actually beat Lure when both were at their best. Alydar never beat Affirmed to the line as a 3yo, his only win came via DQ. Fans were hoping to see a horse take a shot at the traditional Triple Crown but instead the Turf Triple Crown on the under card of the Classics stole the show. Lure took the Turf Classic on Derby day and followed that with a win on Preakness day in the Dixie. Both times Star Of Cozzene chased him home in second. But back at Belmont Star Of Cozzene had his revenge and stormed past Lure in the final furlong to deny him a million dollar bonus. The pair met again next time out in the Caesar's International where Star Of Cozzene again defeated Lure. The pair ran 1-2 in 4 consecutive major races and the rest of the competition was a combined 20 lengths behind them. Star Of Cozzene did not run in the Breeders Cup which likely cost him the Turf Eclipse but along with the Manhatten and Caesar's International he won the Arlington Million and Man O'War stakes on his way to compiling a record of 10-6-4-0 in 1993. At his best he was unquestionably one of the fastest Turf horses we've ever seen on this continent. From 1992 to the present there have only been 19 occasions when a horse has received a Beyer Speed Figure of 115 or more on the Turf. Star Of Cozzene equalled or bettered that mark 4 times. No other horse, not even Lure, topped 115 on the Beyer scale more than once.
Formal Gold - 1997
Speaking of fast horses according to the Beyer scale, has there ever been a horse as consistently fast as Formal Gold? He broke his maiden with a record 112 Beyer speed figure and in his 4yo season went on tear that saw him record 3 consecutive 120+ Beyer Speed Figures. He was unfortunately inconsistent in the early part of 1997 and was injured before the Classic where he might have been favored. All in all his 9-4-2-1 record was not enough to beat out Skip Away at the polls but the way he left Skip Away for dead in the Woodward has to go down as one of the most brilliant performances ever at Belmont.
Awesome Again - 1998
Like Formal Gold, Awesome Again was a Canadian bred and he had a special place in my heart. I happen to think that he had a good case for Horse of the Year in 1998. A perfect 6 for 6 campaign with wins in the Whitney and in the Stephen Foster over Silver Charm and capped off with that wild and crazy win in the BC Classic. Some argue that he wasn't the best horse in that race but in my opinion he came and got them like a champion. He showed a ton of determination to close from near last against one of the toughest fields ever assembled. Most assuredly a champion uncrowned.
Here are some of my favorite uncrowned champions in chronological order. Some of them did win championships in other years of their career but were outshone during certain campaigns. This is not to say they were necessary wronged when they failed to win a championship it's just recognizing that they too were brilliant.
Swaps - 1955
It's hard to believe that a Derby winner who went 9-8-1-0 during the campaign would be overlooked for year end honors but he had the great misfortune of competing against Nashua who beat him decisively in a match race. Swaps was not right that day and many of his fans dismiss that race as a poor representation of what he was really capable of but the rest of his campaign needed no excuses. He won the Kentucky Derby in fine style going straight to the front. He had to deal with some early pressure and then a massive challenge from Nashua at the head of the lane but he turned back the challenge and scored by two lengths. He then went back home to California and set a new world record for 1 1/16th when taking the Californian in 1:40 2/5. He also proved that he was no one surface wonder when equalling the American record for 1 3/16 on the Turf in the American Derby. Aside from Nashua no horse really got near him. He went on to be Horse Of The Year in 1956 but his 55 season was worth some accolades as well.
Gun Bow - 1964
Gun Bow's epitaph should probably read something like "He lived in the time of Kelso". That pretty much explains why he was not a decorated hero. Kelso won everything there was for a 5 year period. A lot of very good horses failed to win championships during that era. Gun Bow was the best of the rest. In 1964 Gun Bow went 16-8-4-2, he raced at 8 different tracks from California to New York. He ran on both surfaces from 7f to 12f and carried as much as 132lbs successfully. He even managed to go 2-2 in head to head match up's with Kelso. Sadly this was not enough to overcome the mighty Kelso for year end honours but he still had a fantastic campaign.
Easy Goer - 1989
This is probably the strongest case anyone ever had had for splitting an award and giving it to both parties. Sunday Silence definitely deserved an award for his season but look at Easy Goer's record that year and try to imagine seeing a horse that good these days. He won all three of his Triple Crown prep races including the Gotham where he very nearly broke Dr. Fager's record for a mile. He then competed in all three Triple Crown races before capping off his year with a brilliant sweep of all the major G-1's in NY and a second in the BC Classic. He won the Travers, Whitney, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He went 11-8-3-0 in all with 5 G-1 wins, the only horse to beat him in 1989 was Sunday Silence and two of those triumphs were very narrow indeed.
Star Of Cozzene - 1993
His duels with Lure drew comparisons to the great rivalry between Affirmed and Alydar. The only difference was that, unlike Alydar, Star Of Cozzene could actually beat Lure when both were at their best. Alydar never beat Affirmed to the line as a 3yo, his only win came via DQ. Fans were hoping to see a horse take a shot at the traditional Triple Crown but instead the Turf Triple Crown on the under card of the Classics stole the show. Lure took the Turf Classic on Derby day and followed that with a win on Preakness day in the Dixie. Both times Star Of Cozzene chased him home in second. But back at Belmont Star Of Cozzene had his revenge and stormed past Lure in the final furlong to deny him a million dollar bonus. The pair met again next time out in the Caesar's International where Star Of Cozzene again defeated Lure. The pair ran 1-2 in 4 consecutive major races and the rest of the competition was a combined 20 lengths behind them. Star Of Cozzene did not run in the Breeders Cup which likely cost him the Turf Eclipse but along with the Manhatten and Caesar's International he won the Arlington Million and Man O'War stakes on his way to compiling a record of 10-6-4-0 in 1993. At his best he was unquestionably one of the fastest Turf horses we've ever seen on this continent. From 1992 to the present there have only been 19 occasions when a horse has received a Beyer Speed Figure of 115 or more on the Turf. Star Of Cozzene equalled or bettered that mark 4 times. No other horse, not even Lure, topped 115 on the Beyer scale more than once.
Formal Gold - 1997
Speaking of fast horses according to the Beyer scale, has there ever been a horse as consistently fast as Formal Gold? He broke his maiden with a record 112 Beyer speed figure and in his 4yo season went on tear that saw him record 3 consecutive 120+ Beyer Speed Figures. He was unfortunately inconsistent in the early part of 1997 and was injured before the Classic where he might have been favored. All in all his 9-4-2-1 record was not enough to beat out Skip Away at the polls but the way he left Skip Away for dead in the Woodward has to go down as one of the most brilliant performances ever at Belmont.
Awesome Again - 1998
Like Formal Gold, Awesome Again was a Canadian bred and he had a special place in my heart. I happen to think that he had a good case for Horse of the Year in 1998. A perfect 6 for 6 campaign with wins in the Whitney and in the Stephen Foster over Silver Charm and capped off with that wild and crazy win in the BC Classic. Some argue that he wasn't the best horse in that race but in my opinion he came and got them like a champion. He showed a ton of determination to close from near last against one of the toughest fields ever assembled. Most assuredly a champion uncrowned.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: Light weekend with just 3 graded stakes on offer. Congaree's half brother, Sangaree, made his debut at Hollywood Park and finished a good looking second for Bob Baffert. He may be one to watch for the future. Criminologist continued her streak with a nice score in the Cardinal. This filly might be ready to take on the top level Turf distaffers when we see her next.
Performance of the Week: True Metropolitan was Canada's Top Older Horse last year but his reign as the best main track horse on the grounds looked to be in serious danger as he was facing Leonnatus Anteas in the Autumn Stakes. Leonnatus Anteas has been growing in stature with every start. Last year's champion 2yo got off to a rocky start but has gained momentum throughout the year and looked to have all the momentum at the eighth pole of the Autumn. But the gutsy True Metropolitan stayed on to the line and broke the track record to win his 7th start from 10 races this campaign. He looks certain to retain his crown as the top older horse in Canada.
Race of the Week: If you haven't heard of Daiwa Major you should look him up. He has been somewhat lost in the shadow of Japanese stars Deep Impact, Hearts Cry and Admire Moon. But for several years now he has been the best miler on the planet and this past weekend he turned in another sparkling performance to take the Mile Championship at Kyoto racecourse. He had to dig deep to hold off Super Hornet who came with a strong challenge but the champ confirmed his status as the best miler in Asia and likely the world with yet another G-1 win.
Flop of the Weekend: Barcola was supposed to get an easy lead in the Stuyvesant and kill the field off with his speed. He did make the lead rather easily but faded tamely when the real running began.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: No major moves this week as there was a shortage of graded stakes and a lack of top class runners in the minor stakes that we did have. Thanksgiving weekend will offer some tasty match up's though. The one division that is still wide open in my opinion is the Female Turf division and Precious Kitten and Cittronade still have a chance at taking top spot among the grass girls. Although they would likely need to win big in order to get much voting support.
Tip O’the Cap: Shug deserves some kudos for his stakes sweep this weekend but I'm going to step outside the world of racing for this week's Tip O'the Cap. The Saskatchewan Roughriders of the Canadian Football League have earned a spot in the Grey Cup. This is an underdog franchise who hasn't won a thing since 1989 and they go into the league championship game with a real chance to win it. What makes the Riders the most special team in the league is their fan base. In a tiny city of under 200,000 people over 2,000 fans showed up at the airport last night at 1:30am to greet the heroic returning team. If they manage to win the Grey Cup there will be mayhem. Go Riders Go!
KC Handicapping: Small profit this week from Criminologists romp in the Cardinal. Luckily the public didn't bet her down too much as her win ticket paid for the loser on Love Handles. Love Handles swung out at the head of the lane and made some headway but just didn't have enough punch against this class.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-1-0-0 (+$1.00 +25.00% ROI)
Overall record: 415(185)-75-71-59 (-$46.20 -5.57% ROI)
Performance of the Week: True Metropolitan was Canada's Top Older Horse last year but his reign as the best main track horse on the grounds looked to be in serious danger as he was facing Leonnatus Anteas in the Autumn Stakes. Leonnatus Anteas has been growing in stature with every start. Last year's champion 2yo got off to a rocky start but has gained momentum throughout the year and looked to have all the momentum at the eighth pole of the Autumn. But the gutsy True Metropolitan stayed on to the line and broke the track record to win his 7th start from 10 races this campaign. He looks certain to retain his crown as the top older horse in Canada.
Race of the Week: If you haven't heard of Daiwa Major you should look him up. He has been somewhat lost in the shadow of Japanese stars Deep Impact, Hearts Cry and Admire Moon. But for several years now he has been the best miler on the planet and this past weekend he turned in another sparkling performance to take the Mile Championship at Kyoto racecourse. He had to dig deep to hold off Super Hornet who came with a strong challenge but the champ confirmed his status as the best miler in Asia and likely the world with yet another G-1 win.
Flop of the Weekend: Barcola was supposed to get an easy lead in the Stuyvesant and kill the field off with his speed. He did make the lead rather easily but faded tamely when the real running began.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: No major moves this week as there was a shortage of graded stakes and a lack of top class runners in the minor stakes that we did have. Thanksgiving weekend will offer some tasty match up's though. The one division that is still wide open in my opinion is the Female Turf division and Precious Kitten and Cittronade still have a chance at taking top spot among the grass girls. Although they would likely need to win big in order to get much voting support.
Tip O’the Cap: Shug deserves some kudos for his stakes sweep this weekend but I'm going to step outside the world of racing for this week's Tip O'the Cap. The Saskatchewan Roughriders of the Canadian Football League have earned a spot in the Grey Cup. This is an underdog franchise who hasn't won a thing since 1989 and they go into the league championship game with a real chance to win it. What makes the Riders the most special team in the league is their fan base. In a tiny city of under 200,000 people over 2,000 fans showed up at the airport last night at 1:30am to greet the heroic returning team. If they manage to win the Grey Cup there will be mayhem. Go Riders Go!
KC Handicapping: Small profit this week from Criminologists romp in the Cardinal. Luckily the public didn't bet her down too much as her win ticket paid for the loser on Love Handles. Love Handles swung out at the head of the lane and made some headway but just didn't have enough punch against this class.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-1-0-0 (+$1.00 +25.00% ROI)
Overall record: 415(185)-75-71-59 (-$46.20 -5.57% ROI)
Friday, November 16, 2007
Weekend Picks and Analysis
Cardinal Handicap
Could Criminologist have been more impressive in the Athenia? I seriously doubt she could have, it was a monster effort. So now we have to choose, was it a representation of her new found form or was it a race too good to be true? I'm not personally going to bet against her in this spot. She has been getting better and better as time has gone on. She was slow to come to hand but has recently eradicated those mysterious non efforts. The pace is a wild card here but Criminologist will likely be sitting right off of it and if anyone else is to win this race they'll have to pass her. Stay away from professional money burner Argentina and also Jade Queen who is riding a 7 race losing skid. I really looked for a way to play Jade Queen because she looks like the lone pace presence in this race but she has lost ground in the stretch of her last 7 races and you just can't afford to do that. I think she's developed the habit of quitting, at 3/1 she's a terrible bet. The only alternative I can even fathom using against the favorite is Love Handles. She took down the useful Jennie R two starts back and has become a very decent horse on the grass. Her Beyer Speed Figures show an on again off again pattern and if it holds this race could be a new career top for her. She'll come from near the back and I'm hoping she can at least make it into the exacta.
Criminologist
Love Handles
Could Criminologist have been more impressive in the Athenia? I seriously doubt she could have, it was a monster effort. So now we have to choose, was it a representation of her new found form or was it a race too good to be true? I'm not personally going to bet against her in this spot. She has been getting better and better as time has gone on. She was slow to come to hand but has recently eradicated those mysterious non efforts. The pace is a wild card here but Criminologist will likely be sitting right off of it and if anyone else is to win this race they'll have to pass her. Stay away from professional money burner Argentina and also Jade Queen who is riding a 7 race losing skid. I really looked for a way to play Jade Queen because she looks like the lone pace presence in this race but she has lost ground in the stretch of her last 7 races and you just can't afford to do that. I think she's developed the habit of quitting, at 3/1 she's a terrible bet. The only alternative I can even fathom using against the favorite is Love Handles. She took down the useful Jennie R two starts back and has become a very decent horse on the grass. Her Beyer Speed Figures show an on again off again pattern and if it holds this race could be a new career top for her. She'll come from near the back and I'm hoping she can at least make it into the exacta.
Criminologist
Love Handles
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Cartier Awards
The European version of the Eclipse Awards was conducted last night and it produced mostly expected results. Dylan Thomas was pronounced Horse Of The Year and Champion Older Horse.
I have long considered the Cartier Awards as a good model for us to fashion the Eclipse Awards after. Here is a brief description of how they are decided.
"The eight horse awards were decided by a tried and tested combination of points achieved in Pattern races, the views of racing journalists on Cartier's Racing Panel, and votes from readers of Racing Post and The Daily Telegraph.
The Pattern races counted towards 40 per cent of the total, with the Cartier Racing Panel's deliberations also having a 40 per cent share and the votes of the newspaper readers making up the final 20 per cent."
This is, in my opinion an ideal model. A combination of points earned by accomplishments, professional opinion and even a little fan voting. The TCR which I conduct on this blog operate on a similar model. The second annual TCR awards will be open for voting on Jan 1st.
Here is a list of the award winners.
Horse Of The Year - Dylan Thomas
Two-Year-Old Filly - Natagora
Two-Year-Old Colt - New Approach
Three-Year-Old Colt -Authorized
Three-Year-Old Filly - Peeping Fawn
Stayer - Yeats
Sprinter - Red Clubs
Older Horse - Dylan Thomas
I applaud the Cartier Award organization for taking this approach to handing out year end honors. There are only two criticism's I have with it.
First they need to find a way to get the point standings out in circulation. It's great that they have points that are calculated as the year goes along but they're losing the chance to promote races based on those points.
Second, I think they need to look at the accuracy of their point system. Last year only 2 of the 8 Award winners were at the top of their divisional point standings. This year they came up with a much improved 6 of 8 but when you consider that a point system like the TCR (which was not created specifically with European racing in mind) would have gone 7 for 8 this year and 5 for 8 last year it's easy to see that improvement is possible.
If you want to see a comparison of the Cartier Award Point Standings and the TCR European version you can visit this link. The TCR once again proves itself to be quite accurate.
I do wonder how Red Clubs ended up as the top sprinter. He must have had a ton of voting support and looking at his past performances I simply cannot imagine why. He was the second ranked Sprinter in the Cartier Point Standings and 6th in the TCR Sprinter Standings. He went 7-1-1-1 on the year and had nothing close to a championship type campaign.
Still on the whole it's a well thought out process and the Eclipse Awards would be well advised to take a page or two from our European friends.
I have long considered the Cartier Awards as a good model for us to fashion the Eclipse Awards after. Here is a brief description of how they are decided.
"The eight horse awards were decided by a tried and tested combination of points achieved in Pattern races, the views of racing journalists on Cartier's Racing Panel, and votes from readers of Racing Post and The Daily Telegraph.
The Pattern races counted towards 40 per cent of the total, with the Cartier Racing Panel's deliberations also having a 40 per cent share and the votes of the newspaper readers making up the final 20 per cent."
This is, in my opinion an ideal model. A combination of points earned by accomplishments, professional opinion and even a little fan voting. The TCR which I conduct on this blog operate on a similar model. The second annual TCR awards will be open for voting on Jan 1st.
Here is a list of the award winners.
Horse Of The Year - Dylan Thomas
Two-Year-Old Filly - Natagora
Two-Year-Old Colt - New Approach
Three-Year-Old Colt -Authorized
Three-Year-Old Filly - Peeping Fawn
Stayer - Yeats
Sprinter - Red Clubs
Older Horse - Dylan Thomas
I applaud the Cartier Award organization for taking this approach to handing out year end honors. There are only two criticism's I have with it.
First they need to find a way to get the point standings out in circulation. It's great that they have points that are calculated as the year goes along but they're losing the chance to promote races based on those points.
Second, I think they need to look at the accuracy of their point system. Last year only 2 of the 8 Award winners were at the top of their divisional point standings. This year they came up with a much improved 6 of 8 but when you consider that a point system like the TCR (which was not created specifically with European racing in mind) would have gone 7 for 8 this year and 5 for 8 last year it's easy to see that improvement is possible.
If you want to see a comparison of the Cartier Award Point Standings and the TCR European version you can visit this link. The TCR once again proves itself to be quite accurate.
I do wonder how Red Clubs ended up as the top sprinter. He must have had a ton of voting support and looking at his past performances I simply cannot imagine why. He was the second ranked Sprinter in the Cartier Point Standings and 6th in the TCR Sprinter Standings. He went 7-1-1-1 on the year and had nothing close to a championship type campaign.
Still on the whole it's a well thought out process and the Eclipse Awards would be well advised to take a page or two from our European friends.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Russian Vignette
I was recently encouraged to write a little more, since this is a slow time for my horse racing inspiration I thought I'd do the odd story of life, anecdote of human incompetence and dramatic retelling of mundane events. As the muse descends of course . The burgeoning demand for my meagre literary prowess demonstrates one fundamental fact of life. There is no accounting for taste.
As there have been few truly inspiring recent events I'll pull one from the archives, this particular tale still stands as the most harrowing experience of my life.
The adventure began as we set off to St. Petersberg on the overnight train. The ride was quite comfortable and I was looking forward to spending the day touring one of the worlds most beautiful and stories cities. In nearly every respect St. Petersberg lived up to it's billing. The eye could hardly take in the grandeur of the scenery. Even the train station we pulled into would put many mansions to shame.
As you all know I have always have a dreadful aversion to all things off colour. Whether it be the public washrooms at Dickson Hill school, the ramshackle outhouse affectionately known as the "Lloyd" or my father's own particular brand of humour. Such things have always haunted my sense of decency. Little did I know that amidst the splendor of that fair city I would be subjected to the most repellent of all circumstances I've had to endure.
The overnight train did not have a privy on board that I was aware of. To be truthful I never looked, I wouldn't have availed myself of it anyway. But after a long night the inevitability's of nature take hold and relief must be sought. I was a little irked from the outset that this train station didn't have free washrooms. Profiting from this circumstance seems morally questionable at best. 10 rubles bought you a place in line and 3 meagre sheets of transparent toilet paper. They only let in a set amount of people at a time it seemed. I shuddered as I wondered what one did if 3 sheets didn't complete the task. The march back to the counter for reinforcements would have been most unpleasant, not to mention having to line up again.
As I rounded the corner into the washroom I surveyed the scene. On one side there were several large stalls on the other was obviously what passed for a urinal in St. Petersberg. We would have likely identified it as an eaves trough bolted to a wall. That was fine though, it's not as if I ever plan on using a urinal. I entered the first roomy stall and was taken aback. The stall was completely empty! There was no fixture of any kind. I assumed the whole place was under construction, that would explain the concrete floors and walls and maybe even why they had to charge money to use it. No matter, I'd simply wait my turn to use the neighboring stall.
A chap eventually emerged looking well relieved with a newspaper underarm, it was a promising sign. However I skipped into his stall to find that it looked exactly like the last stall I observed. I poked my head back into the first stall and this time noted two features of the cubicle that had escaped my initial inspection. It had a floor that was slightly slanted towards the centre and a hole the size of a twonie (Canadian Two Dollar Coin) in the middle. I'm not sure if it's possible to convey the horror I felt at that very moment. Thankfully the human body is wired in such a way that the sudden onset of fear either accelerates bodily functions or stops the process entirely. It is to the latter group that my body belongs, God be praised. Had I spoken Russian I may have tried to warn those standing in line that this particular commode hardly offered value for money. Instead I beat a hasty retreat and steeled myself for a day of discomfort.
As it turns out a proper restroom was eventually found and the city of St Petersburg as well as the Winter Palace did their best to blot out the day's unfortunate prelude.
But still........I have always wondered what use the fella in front of me got out of that newspaper. It haunts me to this day.
As there have been few truly inspiring recent events I'll pull one from the archives, this particular tale still stands as the most harrowing experience of my life.
The adventure began as we set off to St. Petersberg on the overnight train. The ride was quite comfortable and I was looking forward to spending the day touring one of the worlds most beautiful and stories cities. In nearly every respect St. Petersberg lived up to it's billing. The eye could hardly take in the grandeur of the scenery. Even the train station we pulled into would put many mansions to shame.
As you all know I have always have a dreadful aversion to all things off colour. Whether it be the public washrooms at Dickson Hill school, the ramshackle outhouse affectionately known as the "Lloyd" or my father's own particular brand of humour. Such things have always haunted my sense of decency. Little did I know that amidst the splendor of that fair city I would be subjected to the most repellent of all circumstances I've had to endure.
The overnight train did not have a privy on board that I was aware of. To be truthful I never looked, I wouldn't have availed myself of it anyway. But after a long night the inevitability's of nature take hold and relief must be sought. I was a little irked from the outset that this train station didn't have free washrooms. Profiting from this circumstance seems morally questionable at best. 10 rubles bought you a place in line and 3 meagre sheets of transparent toilet paper. They only let in a set amount of people at a time it seemed. I shuddered as I wondered what one did if 3 sheets didn't complete the task. The march back to the counter for reinforcements would have been most unpleasant, not to mention having to line up again.
As I rounded the corner into the washroom I surveyed the scene. On one side there were several large stalls on the other was obviously what passed for a urinal in St. Petersberg. We would have likely identified it as an eaves trough bolted to a wall. That was fine though, it's not as if I ever plan on using a urinal. I entered the first roomy stall and was taken aback. The stall was completely empty! There was no fixture of any kind. I assumed the whole place was under construction, that would explain the concrete floors and walls and maybe even why they had to charge money to use it. No matter, I'd simply wait my turn to use the neighboring stall.
A chap eventually emerged looking well relieved with a newspaper underarm, it was a promising sign. However I skipped into his stall to find that it looked exactly like the last stall I observed. I poked my head back into the first stall and this time noted two features of the cubicle that had escaped my initial inspection. It had a floor that was slightly slanted towards the centre and a hole the size of a twonie (Canadian Two Dollar Coin) in the middle. I'm not sure if it's possible to convey the horror I felt at that very moment. Thankfully the human body is wired in such a way that the sudden onset of fear either accelerates bodily functions or stops the process entirely. It is to the latter group that my body belongs, God be praised. Had I spoken Russian I may have tried to warn those standing in line that this particular commode hardly offered value for money. Instead I beat a hasty retreat and steeled myself for a day of discomfort.
As it turns out a proper restroom was eventually found and the city of St Petersburg as well as the Winter Palace did their best to blot out the day's unfortunate prelude.
But still........I have always wondered what use the fella in front of me got out of that newspaper. It haunts me to this day.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: We're likely to have many quiet weekends like this over the next few months. This is as close to the off season as racing gets. I'm quite disappointed to see that Istan is now set to be retired at the end of the season. He's just finding his stride. Curlin will likely follow him to the shed and racing, the sport, will again be the loser. Racing needs to come up with a way to keep horses in training.
Performance of the Week: You will likely hear a lot about Inca King in this space over the next year if he continues the path he's on. He loves the grass and once again he proved it when annexing his rivals in the Commonwealth at Churchill. How he was not favored in this race is beyond me. I'm loving the look of Inca King as a potential first rate miler. He's got speed but he's learning how to rate. The quick move he showed again in the Commonwealth is exactly the kind it takes to be first class at 8 panels.
Race of the Week: 9 year old two time defending champion giving everything he has desperately searching for the wire as the heir apparent 3yo challenger gets closer with every stride. The gallant old champion hangs on by a nose. Sounds like a movie doesn't it? Well Revved Up and Soldiers Dancer put on a first rate show in the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup. Revved Up has owned this race for years now but Soldier's Dancer is definitely the best Turf horse at Calder these days. Revved Up made his customary move to the front at the head of the lane and for a moment looked home free. But Soldiers Dancer burst from the back of the pack and was getting to the old timer with every stride. The wire came at just the right time for Revved Up.
Flop of the Weekend: Royal Highness has hit rock bottom. She turned in yet another anonymous display in the Long Island Handicap. Perhaps she was on poor footing on the inside but she just had no punch in the stretch. That's twice in a row now that she's been awful. Something is amiss with her.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The TCR standings are fully updated but none of the top horses were in action so the standings remain unchanged at the top. Bit Of Whimsy jumped into 7th place in the Female Turf Division but she's most like done for the year. I don't expect to see her move up much more this year but she could be one of the horses to beat in the division next year. Sugar Shake moved into 6th in the older fillies division. She's had a pretty decent year, she was not able to compete with the division headliners in the summer but she proved herself more than useful in the early part of the year.
Tip O’the Cap: Hard to overlook Revved Up's three peat in the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup but I'm going to give this otiose honor to Garret Gomez for breaking Jerry Bailey's record for stakes wins in a single season. Gomez has been sharp all year long and in just a few short years after some major problems in his life he is now the best money rider in the business.
KC Handicapping: Took some shots this week and only my saver on Bit Of Whimsy came in. It just goes like that sometimes.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 7(2)-1-0-1 (-$8.80 -62.86% ROI)
Overall record: 413(184)-74-71-59 (-$47.20 -5.71% ROI)
Performance of the Week: You will likely hear a lot about Inca King in this space over the next year if he continues the path he's on. He loves the grass and once again he proved it when annexing his rivals in the Commonwealth at Churchill. How he was not favored in this race is beyond me. I'm loving the look of Inca King as a potential first rate miler. He's got speed but he's learning how to rate. The quick move he showed again in the Commonwealth is exactly the kind it takes to be first class at 8 panels.
Race of the Week: 9 year old two time defending champion giving everything he has desperately searching for the wire as the heir apparent 3yo challenger gets closer with every stride. The gallant old champion hangs on by a nose. Sounds like a movie doesn't it? Well Revved Up and Soldiers Dancer put on a first rate show in the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup. Revved Up has owned this race for years now but Soldier's Dancer is definitely the best Turf horse at Calder these days. Revved Up made his customary move to the front at the head of the lane and for a moment looked home free. But Soldiers Dancer burst from the back of the pack and was getting to the old timer with every stride. The wire came at just the right time for Revved Up.
Flop of the Weekend: Royal Highness has hit rock bottom. She turned in yet another anonymous display in the Long Island Handicap. Perhaps she was on poor footing on the inside but she just had no punch in the stretch. That's twice in a row now that she's been awful. Something is amiss with her.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The TCR standings are fully updated but none of the top horses were in action so the standings remain unchanged at the top. Bit Of Whimsy jumped into 7th place in the Female Turf Division but she's most like done for the year. I don't expect to see her move up much more this year but she could be one of the horses to beat in the division next year. Sugar Shake moved into 6th in the older fillies division. She's had a pretty decent year, she was not able to compete with the division headliners in the summer but she proved herself more than useful in the early part of the year.
Tip O’the Cap: Hard to overlook Revved Up's three peat in the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup but I'm going to give this otiose honor to Garret Gomez for breaking Jerry Bailey's record for stakes wins in a single season. Gomez has been sharp all year long and in just a few short years after some major problems in his life he is now the best money rider in the business.
KC Handicapping: Took some shots this week and only my saver on Bit Of Whimsy came in. It just goes like that sometimes.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 7(2)-1-0-1 (-$8.80 -62.86% ROI)
Overall record: 413(184)-74-71-59 (-$47.20 -5.71% ROI)
Friday, November 09, 2007
Weekend Analysis And Selections
Mrs. Revere Stakes
Bit Of Whimsey is a solid and deserving favorite but I still find myself looking deeper into this race to find some alternatives. The Tagg trainee won a decent renewal of the QE II at Keeneland and she always seems to run her race. My only thought in opposing her is that she's not a really dominant filly. On the right day she can be beaten. I will definitely use her but I'll be hoping for an upset. The top upset candidate in my mind is Tensas Yucatan. Right from the very start this is a filly seemed destined for better things. Her connections got very bullish with her early in the year and she failed to live up to expectations on the dirt. Since switching to the Turf she has looked like the filly her connections suspected she is. She beat nothing aside from some nice Louisiana Downs horses in her last two but she did it with real ease. Both times she was forwardly placed, not because she needs the lead but because she was acting so well on the ground. And each time when challenged at the head of the stretch she moved away from her competition like a good horse should and finished up with vigor. Despite the healthy ration of speed we have in this race it would not shock me to see her step up and get first run on the favorite. Albarado gets on her and there are few better on the sod at CD. Because of the plethora of speed you have to use Bel Air Beauty in case of collapse. A quick glance at the form shows only 2 wins in 7 starts but this filly has never run a bad race off the dirt. She's very nice on Polytrack and Turf. She can handle off going and she should be closing the hardest in the lane. Cat Charmer scares me, Motion brings his horses into form sneakily sometimes and most would glance at this fillies record and note that she's consistent but wonder if she's fast enough. Well that is exactly what Bit Of Whimsey looked like last time going for another savvy Turf trainer. I'm going to use 4 horses in this race because if anyone but Bit Of Whimsey wins the race I should show a profit and I really do see the winner being one of these 4. I would not use anyone else.
Tensas Yucatan
Bit Of Whimsey
Bel Air Beauty
Cat Charmer
Red Smith Handicap
The last big Turf race in New York this year. I've always loved this race for some reason. It often draws a big contentious field and this year is no exception. The favorite True Cause is pegged at 9/2. I think the bettors will have to decide on the favorite, and you will probably get at least 7/2 on the post time favorite no matter who that ends up being. Sounds like a great race for exotics. A few horses have caught my eye in this one. First Encinas, he and Garcia did not get along at all in his debut. He fought him hard for the first few furlongs and basically ran an even race. I think he more than belongs with the crowd he was facing, which includes True Cause. Second time out he should be more relaxed, not as fresh and hopefully more rateable. It's hard to say if the public will jump on him or ignore him but you will likely get good value. Soft ground is a plus with him. Operation Red Dawn has been a favorite of mine for a while. He has always looked like a horse who could be serious business once he gets it right. While he figured it out his natural class and talent always saw him run close. He could be turning a corner and I think the distance will suit him. Not a fan of Channing Hill in the saddle so I probably wouldn't use him if he ended up the favorite. A horse who I think will be overlooked is Golden Strategy. The always dangerous Marty Wolfson has his go to guy Eddie Castro up on this 10/1 shot. He's got useful early speed but he can also come from off the pace. Tricky Causeway is highly unlikely to repeat his feat from last time with this guy in here. People may ignore him because he's never actually won on the grass but he's more than capable and he stays all day. He is a versatile horse who has won from 6f to 16f on dirt but his connections have pegged him as a Turf horse and he could step up huge in his second try on the surface. This guy also loves wet weather. A horse who I consider a must use in the exotics is Dreadnaught. Although I had him in this race two years back I would not use him in the win spot here. He has not won in two years and while he is returning to what I think is his best course and distance I think the losing mentality he's developed will see him fall short to someone, but he should be there or thereabouts. He's still a very good horse and he runs consistently at a high level. It's unlikely that too many horses in this race will surpass that level.
Encinas
Golden Strategy
Operation Red Dawn
Bit Of Whimsey is a solid and deserving favorite but I still find myself looking deeper into this race to find some alternatives. The Tagg trainee won a decent renewal of the QE II at Keeneland and she always seems to run her race. My only thought in opposing her is that she's not a really dominant filly. On the right day she can be beaten. I will definitely use her but I'll be hoping for an upset. The top upset candidate in my mind is Tensas Yucatan. Right from the very start this is a filly seemed destined for better things. Her connections got very bullish with her early in the year and she failed to live up to expectations on the dirt. Since switching to the Turf she has looked like the filly her connections suspected she is. She beat nothing aside from some nice Louisiana Downs horses in her last two but she did it with real ease. Both times she was forwardly placed, not because she needs the lead but because she was acting so well on the ground. And each time when challenged at the head of the stretch she moved away from her competition like a good horse should and finished up with vigor. Despite the healthy ration of speed we have in this race it would not shock me to see her step up and get first run on the favorite. Albarado gets on her and there are few better on the sod at CD. Because of the plethora of speed you have to use Bel Air Beauty in case of collapse. A quick glance at the form shows only 2 wins in 7 starts but this filly has never run a bad race off the dirt. She's very nice on Polytrack and Turf. She can handle off going and she should be closing the hardest in the lane. Cat Charmer scares me, Motion brings his horses into form sneakily sometimes and most would glance at this fillies record and note that she's consistent but wonder if she's fast enough. Well that is exactly what Bit Of Whimsey looked like last time going for another savvy Turf trainer. I'm going to use 4 horses in this race because if anyone but Bit Of Whimsey wins the race I should show a profit and I really do see the winner being one of these 4. I would not use anyone else.
Tensas Yucatan
Bit Of Whimsey
Bel Air Beauty
Cat Charmer
Red Smith Handicap
The last big Turf race in New York this year. I've always loved this race for some reason. It often draws a big contentious field and this year is no exception. The favorite True Cause is pegged at 9/2. I think the bettors will have to decide on the favorite, and you will probably get at least 7/2 on the post time favorite no matter who that ends up being. Sounds like a great race for exotics. A few horses have caught my eye in this one. First Encinas, he and Garcia did not get along at all in his debut. He fought him hard for the first few furlongs and basically ran an even race. I think he more than belongs with the crowd he was facing, which includes True Cause. Second time out he should be more relaxed, not as fresh and hopefully more rateable. It's hard to say if the public will jump on him or ignore him but you will likely get good value. Soft ground is a plus with him. Operation Red Dawn has been a favorite of mine for a while. He has always looked like a horse who could be serious business once he gets it right. While he figured it out his natural class and talent always saw him run close. He could be turning a corner and I think the distance will suit him. Not a fan of Channing Hill in the saddle so I probably wouldn't use him if he ended up the favorite. A horse who I think will be overlooked is Golden Strategy. The always dangerous Marty Wolfson has his go to guy Eddie Castro up on this 10/1 shot. He's got useful early speed but he can also come from off the pace. Tricky Causeway is highly unlikely to repeat his feat from last time with this guy in here. People may ignore him because he's never actually won on the grass but he's more than capable and he stays all day. He is a versatile horse who has won from 6f to 16f on dirt but his connections have pegged him as a Turf horse and he could step up huge in his second try on the surface. This guy also loves wet weather. A horse who I consider a must use in the exotics is Dreadnaught. Although I had him in this race two years back I would not use him in the win spot here. He has not won in two years and while he is returning to what I think is his best course and distance I think the losing mentality he's developed will see him fall short to someone, but he should be there or thereabouts. He's still a very good horse and he runs consistently at a high level. It's unlikely that too many horses in this race will surpass that level.
Encinas
Golden Strategy
Operation Red Dawn
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: It's a little late to be reviewing the weekend but I'm still on vacation so everyday feels like the weekend somewhat and it's hard to find time just to sit at the computer. Horse racing is great but life is better.
Performance of the Week: It's between Istan and Numaany. Istan was powerful and dominant in what looked like a true breakout performance while Numaany was a most entertaining maiden winner who bolted and was nearly pulled up so the rider could get control then he recovered and blasted past his competition. You don't see performances like that everyday but I'm going to side with Istan. He was not beating a bunch of horses who can't or haven't won (Sun King excepted). It was a decent quality stakes race and he may just be up to giving Midnight Lute a race if both decide to show for the Cigar Mile.
Race of the Week: I did not watch very much racing so I wouldn't have a great opinion on the most pulsating race of the week. Perhaps others can nominate good candidates for this.
Flop of the Weekend: I'm going to give this to Fasig-Tipton for the whole Octave auction fiasco. Maybe O'Byrne put his hand up, maybe not. You would have to think though that given Coolmore and Godolphin's heavy involvement in the sales they would have bid spotters looking solely at them. At any rate, how archaic is the auction system? Create handheld wireless devices that you can pick up at the door and use to instantly register a bid. Surely there is the technology to create such a device. Given the fact that Coolmore never bought another horse at the sale after the fiasco it would probably be a good move to pay whatever it costs to eliminate this problem in the future.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The TCR standings are on a little hiatus. It's too much work to calculate them while I'm away. Next Monday we'll have a full update and review.
Tip O’the Cap: While some are piling the abuse on Lava Man for his flop in the California Cup Classic I prefer to tip my cap to a horse that has had a great career and has thrilled many fans. It's a shame that Lava Man is in such poor form recently because he is quite a neat horse. His dominance in California hearkens back to the days of Native Diver, Best Pal and even Swaps. Sweeping the top three G-1 in California in 2006 was mammoth. As was winning three straight Hollywood Gold Cups. I don't know what his connections will decide to do with him but if he never comes back to form at least we still have some great memories of him.
KC Handicapping: Istan was a standout and offered great value when the public oddly favored Sun King. I said in the analysis that Istan was the horse to use and only take alternatives if the price is too short. Turns out he was excellent value when Sun King was backed to 7/5. Never back a money burning loser like Sun King in the top spot. He is fool's gold. Unfortunately Change Up turned out to be a lump of coal. Her 4th place finish was none too inspiring. Celtic Dreamin ran hard but couldn't get up in the Cal Cup Classic so my picks lose money yet again. When I get back I'm going to have to put some effort into leading a revival
Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(3)-1-1-0 (-$3.20 -32.00% ROI)
Overall record: 406(182)-73-71-58 (-$38.40 -4.47% ROI)
Performance of the Week: It's between Istan and Numaany. Istan was powerful and dominant in what looked like a true breakout performance while Numaany was a most entertaining maiden winner who bolted and was nearly pulled up so the rider could get control then he recovered and blasted past his competition. You don't see performances like that everyday but I'm going to side with Istan. He was not beating a bunch of horses who can't or haven't won (Sun King excepted). It was a decent quality stakes race and he may just be up to giving Midnight Lute a race if both decide to show for the Cigar Mile.
Race of the Week: I did not watch very much racing so I wouldn't have a great opinion on the most pulsating race of the week. Perhaps others can nominate good candidates for this.
Flop of the Weekend: I'm going to give this to Fasig-Tipton for the whole Octave auction fiasco. Maybe O'Byrne put his hand up, maybe not. You would have to think though that given Coolmore and Godolphin's heavy involvement in the sales they would have bid spotters looking solely at them. At any rate, how archaic is the auction system? Create handheld wireless devices that you can pick up at the door and use to instantly register a bid. Surely there is the technology to create such a device. Given the fact that Coolmore never bought another horse at the sale after the fiasco it would probably be a good move to pay whatever it costs to eliminate this problem in the future.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The TCR standings are on a little hiatus. It's too much work to calculate them while I'm away. Next Monday we'll have a full update and review.
Tip O’the Cap: While some are piling the abuse on Lava Man for his flop in the California Cup Classic I prefer to tip my cap to a horse that has had a great career and has thrilled many fans. It's a shame that Lava Man is in such poor form recently because he is quite a neat horse. His dominance in California hearkens back to the days of Native Diver, Best Pal and even Swaps. Sweeping the top three G-1 in California in 2006 was mammoth. As was winning three straight Hollywood Gold Cups. I don't know what his connections will decide to do with him but if he never comes back to form at least we still have some great memories of him.
KC Handicapping: Istan was a standout and offered great value when the public oddly favored Sun King. I said in the analysis that Istan was the horse to use and only take alternatives if the price is too short. Turns out he was excellent value when Sun King was backed to 7/5. Never back a money burning loser like Sun King in the top spot. He is fool's gold. Unfortunately Change Up turned out to be a lump of coal. Her 4th place finish was none too inspiring. Celtic Dreamin ran hard but couldn't get up in the Cal Cup Classic so my picks lose money yet again. When I get back I'm going to have to put some effort into leading a revival
Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(3)-1-1-0 (-$3.20 -32.00% ROI)
Overall record: 406(182)-73-71-58 (-$38.40 -4.47% ROI)
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