Virtually every year we see precocious 2yo's who step up and run massive figures and two camps automatically form. The one camp assumes they've seen the second coming while the other takes a contrary position and starts predicting the date of their regression.
It may be useful to take a peek at how these big figure juveniles fare in the Derby. It has to be noted that generally a small number of those big figure juveniles actually make it to the Derby but for the ones that do the results may be interesting. One may assume that horse with such figures would automatically be well regarded but that is not always the case. There are occasionally prices to be had.
The cumulative record of Derby starters who recorded a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure as a juvenile is 27-5-2-2 with a further 6 qualifiers finishing in the top 5. A flat $2 win bet on all of them you have yielded a gross return of $82.60 so you'd have made $28.60 profit (52.96% ROI)
It certainly looks like a useful stat on the face of it. The numbers actually get stronger if you just look at the last 5 years. During that time Derby starters who achieved the 100+ BSF have gone 13-4-1-2. There is a consensus that 2yo's are being brought along slower than they once were. In terms of the number starts that would certainly be true but it would seem as though 2yo's are still very much being asked for speed early on. More speed with less races may not actually be as easy physically on the 2yo's as we think the trainers are being.
The numbers seem to suggest that many horses who are fast early on are still fast in may. Assuming of course they last long enough to make it into the Derby starting gate. I think there is little credence to the notion that juveniles who run big early on cannot continue to improve.
This statistic, and especially it's recent success, certainly says good things about the chances of War Pass and Pyro. I'm not aware of too many other Derby contenders this year who achieved a 100+ BSF as a 2yo. At this stage it may be pointing out the obvious but on the Derby Trail things change so quickly that if a horse even has one sub par performance they drop down the pecking order considerably. It is possible that War Pass or Pyro could become forgotten horses, this little stat may help to keep them fresh in your mind.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - January 29th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
Once again it was a slow week for Derby contenders and nothing changed either in the top 10 or on the radar. Cool Coal Man won what could be considered a key allowance race at Gulfstream. Many of the horses entered were harboring Triple Crown aspirations and the top pair, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes will likely be put into stakes company but it was not a very impressive race. I don't think that either horse has the stuff to compete at the highest level. The Beyer Speed Figure that Cool Coal Man got was a decent 92 but something about his action did not impress me. I don't think he can get anywhere near the horses in my top 10. One horse who has been shunned completely and has not even received a mention is Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man gave him a good form reference with this allowance win but in general the form from the Jockey Club Stakes has not been strong. Blackberry Road came back to run decent but he was easily handled by Z Fortune. Anak Nakal has been horrendously slow in all of his races, he's been fortunate that aside from Etched all the horses he's faced have been slower. But I think the schooling Etched gave him in the Nashua is indicative of what will happen to him when he faces the best. I don't even consider Etched to be one of the best. I suppose it also has to be said that I'm not the biggest fan of Nick Zito's handling of Triple Crown prospects. I think he is a good trainer who won't necessarily screw up a good horse but what he will do is consistently put an average horse in way above his head. Or he'll take a very talented horse and try to make them into something they're not. Zito is not the kind of trainer who will accept that one of his horses, who had previously shown any form, is not good enough to run in the Derby. I don't trust trainers with that mentality so I will consistently oppose their charges that seem too slow. It's kind of ironic that I've had a Zito horse as my #1 since I started the ranking but War Pass has scary talent and it's much more difficult to mismanage, and detrimentally effect, a horse who is streets better than his competition.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
Once again it was a slow week for Derby contenders and nothing changed either in the top 10 or on the radar. Cool Coal Man won what could be considered a key allowance race at Gulfstream. Many of the horses entered were harboring Triple Crown aspirations and the top pair, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes will likely be put into stakes company but it was not a very impressive race. I don't think that either horse has the stuff to compete at the highest level. The Beyer Speed Figure that Cool Coal Man got was a decent 92 but something about his action did not impress me. I don't think he can get anywhere near the horses in my top 10. One horse who has been shunned completely and has not even received a mention is Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man gave him a good form reference with this allowance win but in general the form from the Jockey Club Stakes has not been strong. Blackberry Road came back to run decent but he was easily handled by Z Fortune. Anak Nakal has been horrendously slow in all of his races, he's been fortunate that aside from Etched all the horses he's faced have been slower. But I think the schooling Etched gave him in the Nashua is indicative of what will happen to him when he faces the best. I don't even consider Etched to be one of the best. I suppose it also has to be said that I'm not the biggest fan of Nick Zito's handling of Triple Crown prospects. I think he is a good trainer who won't necessarily screw up a good horse but what he will do is consistently put an average horse in way above his head. Or he'll take a very talented horse and try to make them into something they're not. Zito is not the kind of trainer who will accept that one of his horses, who had previously shown any form, is not good enough to run in the Derby. I don't trust trainers with that mentality so I will consistently oppose their charges that seem too slow. It's kind of ironic that I've had a Zito horse as my #1 since I started the ranking but War Pass has scary talent and it's much more difficult to mismanage, and detrimentally effect, a horse who is streets better than his competition.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
Monday, January 28, 2008
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: The Sunshine Millions thankfully went off without a hitch despite the threats of cancellation at Santa Anita. It was a fairly formful set of races with many good horses confirming their class. I often think of the Sunshine Millions as the kick off to the year. This is where it all begins and starting next week we'll have some G-1's to observe including the Donn Handicap where blog favorite Daaher will kick off his campaign.
Performance of the Week: Not only did the Sunshine Millions Sprint yield the second highest Beyer Speed Figure of the year (115) but Benny The Bull showed a new dimension that just might make him the best sprinter of 2008. One run closers generally have problems winning consistently but Benny decided to take the bull by the horns all on his own this time. He stalked the pace from close up and moved very quickly when asked showing that he is still able to accelerate when attending a fast pace. He left Mach Ride for dead in a flash and won with ridiculous ease. He is a 6f specialist and may be very tough to beat this year, even for Fabulous Strike.
Race of the Week: There was a definite lack of heart pounding finishes this week so it became a toss up between the gutsy Quite A Bride holding out over Nashoba's Key and Buffalo Man beating Elusive Fort and the late running Host. I decided to give the laurels to the Canadian, Buffalo Man for his first stakes win of any note. For those who had high hopes for him in the Triple Crown this must provide at least some measure of solace. He looks as though he could do even better still. He tracked a moderate pace in this race without the benefit of any cover. Visually he did not display the same quickness that we've seen from him in the past but he had enough to get by the pacesetter and hold off Elusive Fort.
Flop of the Weekend: In general it was a formful week but one favorite who absolutely stunk was Blitzing. Bettors had every reason to back her into favoritism in the Sunshine Millions Oaks but the Asmussen trainee never lifted a hoof while the race was won by a horse she had previously beaten by 2 1/2 lengths.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The Thoroughbred Championship Rankings kick off 2008 with a few changes. The handicap bonus has been eliminated because it no longer rewards what it was meant to reward. It does not give great horses an added bonus for carrying high weights. It primary rewarded average horses for stepping down in class and facing poor horses. The undefeated bonus has also been slightly altered as was previously mentioned. Another change we've made is to rename and realign some of the divisions so they make sense. Gone is the ambiguous "Older Horse" division, it has been renamed the "Main Track Older Male" division. Similar renaming and clarification was done for most of the divisions. Also all the back data for the TCR was recalculated using the new parameters and fixing old errors giving us the most accurate version of the TCR yet. We remain committed to giving you the highest quality and most accurate ranking system we can. As we check into this years standings we see the dual stakes winner In Summation at the head of the list. Quite A Bride and Go Between are the only Sunshine Millions winners to crack the top 10 because those races are restricted. The Three Year Old Male division has also not really gotten off the ground yet with Smooth Air, the lone G-2 winner in the division, taking top spot.
Tip O’the Cap: Of all the super trainers or at least high profile trainers I think it's safe to say that Bill Mott has one of the best reputations. You never hear a negative word about the guy and from all accounts he's a class act from start to finish. He sure can train too. Mott took 3 of the 8 Sunshine Millions races with Go Between, War Monger and Quite A Bride. Mott brought himself back into the limelight last year at Saratoga and his hot run looks set to continue this year with that trio as well as 5 Derby contenders. Congrats to Bill Mott and here's hoping his stable continues it's good run.
KC Handicapping: 4 of the last 6 races handicapped have yielded winners. Most of them paid virtually nothing but we still managed to scrape out a profit. The race that worked out the best was most definitely the Appleton Handicap where our top picks ran 1-2 keying a $76.30 exacta.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 10(6)-4-1-0 (+$1.20 +6.00% ROI)
Overall record: 459(215)-86-75-67 (-$32.20 -3.51% ROI)
Performance of the Week: Not only did the Sunshine Millions Sprint yield the second highest Beyer Speed Figure of the year (115) but Benny The Bull showed a new dimension that just might make him the best sprinter of 2008. One run closers generally have problems winning consistently but Benny decided to take the bull by the horns all on his own this time. He stalked the pace from close up and moved very quickly when asked showing that he is still able to accelerate when attending a fast pace. He left Mach Ride for dead in a flash and won with ridiculous ease. He is a 6f specialist and may be very tough to beat this year, even for Fabulous Strike.
Race of the Week: There was a definite lack of heart pounding finishes this week so it became a toss up between the gutsy Quite A Bride holding out over Nashoba's Key and Buffalo Man beating Elusive Fort and the late running Host. I decided to give the laurels to the Canadian, Buffalo Man for his first stakes win of any note. For those who had high hopes for him in the Triple Crown this must provide at least some measure of solace. He looks as though he could do even better still. He tracked a moderate pace in this race without the benefit of any cover. Visually he did not display the same quickness that we've seen from him in the past but he had enough to get by the pacesetter and hold off Elusive Fort.
Flop of the Weekend: In general it was a formful week but one favorite who absolutely stunk was Blitzing. Bettors had every reason to back her into favoritism in the Sunshine Millions Oaks but the Asmussen trainee never lifted a hoof while the race was won by a horse she had previously beaten by 2 1/2 lengths.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The Thoroughbred Championship Rankings kick off 2008 with a few changes. The handicap bonus has been eliminated because it no longer rewards what it was meant to reward. It does not give great horses an added bonus for carrying high weights. It primary rewarded average horses for stepping down in class and facing poor horses. The undefeated bonus has also been slightly altered as was previously mentioned. Another change we've made is to rename and realign some of the divisions so they make sense. Gone is the ambiguous "Older Horse" division, it has been renamed the "Main Track Older Male" division. Similar renaming and clarification was done for most of the divisions. Also all the back data for the TCR was recalculated using the new parameters and fixing old errors giving us the most accurate version of the TCR yet. We remain committed to giving you the highest quality and most accurate ranking system we can. As we check into this years standings we see the dual stakes winner In Summation at the head of the list. Quite A Bride and Go Between are the only Sunshine Millions winners to crack the top 10 because those races are restricted. The Three Year Old Male division has also not really gotten off the ground yet with Smooth Air, the lone G-2 winner in the division, taking top spot.
Tip O’the Cap: Of all the super trainers or at least high profile trainers I think it's safe to say that Bill Mott has one of the best reputations. You never hear a negative word about the guy and from all accounts he's a class act from start to finish. He sure can train too. Mott took 3 of the 8 Sunshine Millions races with Go Between, War Monger and Quite A Bride. Mott brought himself back into the limelight last year at Saratoga and his hot run looks set to continue this year with that trio as well as 5 Derby contenders. Congrats to Bill Mott and here's hoping his stable continues it's good run.
KC Handicapping: 4 of the last 6 races handicapped have yielded winners. Most of them paid virtually nothing but we still managed to scrape out a profit. The race that worked out the best was most definitely the Appleton Handicap where our top picks ran 1-2 keying a $76.30 exacta.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 10(6)-4-1-0 (+$1.20 +6.00% ROI)
Overall record: 459(215)-86-75-67 (-$32.20 -3.51% ROI)
Friday, January 25, 2008
Weekend Picks and Analysis - Part 2
I had intended to follow up Part 1 and post my complete analysis of the rest of the Sunshine Millions card. However since the rest of the races are all set to be run at Santa Anita I've decided not to feature them here. There is a ton of uncertainty surrounding those races. There is a huge chance that they won't be run and even if they are it might be at a different track. That would change the complexion of the races dramatically so it's best to stay away from those races and just hope they figure out a safe solution. In the meantime there is still a decent race or two out there to handicap.
Appleton Handicap
This is a nice wide open contest, Host is really the only horse in the race with established class. The rest are still trying to make the breakthrough to better company. I personally don't like Host in here. I know I went against him last time and he won but the pace was ridiculous that day. There is far less speed in this race and it's hard to see this old closer getting the dream setup twice in a row. Jet Propulsion may get things his own way this time as Fearless Eagle looks like the only one with even tracking speed. That makes Jet Propulsion a real danger to steal this race. I am hoping someone gets a little rank and keeps him honest because even with his speed I think he's a pretty bad selection. Generally he folds against this type. I am interested by Elusive Fort. I backed him in his North American debut and he ran a decent race behind Einstien. Oddly enough that allowance was likely tougher than this Grade 3. Elusive Fort only seemed to get interested late but it was his first start for 7 months. Two things scare me about him. #1 he is coming back very quickly after a long layoff, I generally like to see most time between the first and second starts and #2 Marty Wolfson is ice cold at 0 for 14. If you can look beyond those two factors Elusive Fort is a decent play. I'm sure he has the talent to win and it's possible that he'll make a jump forward off that race. The horse I will likely key on though is Buffalo Man. At one time he was a Triple Crown candidate and he excited fans with his nice turn of foot. Injury ended that dream and he is still basically trying to work his way back up to the level he was at. He's a very consistent horse. Aside from two debacles in New York he's been quite solid. He ran on Turf for the first time in his last race and he seemed to take to it very well. For a moment it looked as if he'd win the race but he bolted under left handed urging. When Prado went back to the right hand he straightened out and just missed by half a length. Prado stays on this time and hopefully he can keep him in a line in the stretch. Buffalo Man has been working well and has always given the impression that he'd be a good miler. He's got the quickness for it and he handles the grass quite well. I like Buffalo Man with an outside shot to Elusive Fort.
Buffalo Man
Elusive Fort
Appleton Handicap
This is a nice wide open contest, Host is really the only horse in the race with established class. The rest are still trying to make the breakthrough to better company. I personally don't like Host in here. I know I went against him last time and he won but the pace was ridiculous that day. There is far less speed in this race and it's hard to see this old closer getting the dream setup twice in a row. Jet Propulsion may get things his own way this time as Fearless Eagle looks like the only one with even tracking speed. That makes Jet Propulsion a real danger to steal this race. I am hoping someone gets a little rank and keeps him honest because even with his speed I think he's a pretty bad selection. Generally he folds against this type. I am interested by Elusive Fort. I backed him in his North American debut and he ran a decent race behind Einstien. Oddly enough that allowance was likely tougher than this Grade 3. Elusive Fort only seemed to get interested late but it was his first start for 7 months. Two things scare me about him. #1 he is coming back very quickly after a long layoff, I generally like to see most time between the first and second starts and #2 Marty Wolfson is ice cold at 0 for 14. If you can look beyond those two factors Elusive Fort is a decent play. I'm sure he has the talent to win and it's possible that he'll make a jump forward off that race. The horse I will likely key on though is Buffalo Man. At one time he was a Triple Crown candidate and he excited fans with his nice turn of foot. Injury ended that dream and he is still basically trying to work his way back up to the level he was at. He's a very consistent horse. Aside from two debacles in New York he's been quite solid. He ran on Turf for the first time in his last race and he seemed to take to it very well. For a moment it looked as if he'd win the race but he bolted under left handed urging. When Prado went back to the right hand he straightened out and just missed by half a length. Prado stays on this time and hopefully he can keep him in a line in the stretch. Buffalo Man has been working well and has always given the impression that he'd be a good miler. He's got the quickness for it and he handles the grass quite well. I like Buffalo Man with an outside shot to Elusive Fort.
Buffalo Man
Elusive Fort
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Weekend Picks and Analysis - Part 1
Sunshine Millions Sprint
The opening race of what looks like a great renewal of the Sunshine Millions. Possibly the deepest ever over the eight races even though the Classic does not look all that tough. One has to think that if Benny The Bull is ready to run this race should be meat and drink to him. I know you have the classy Mach Ride and the speedy Bushwacker who recently beat the hot In Summation but there seems to be a lot of speed so the pace should setup and Benny The Bull has been working very well. He's a 6f specialist and his connections have to be thinking of this as the first step to a campaign of mostly G-1 races. I'm not sure if many others in this field, aside from Mach Ride could realistically harbor those expectations. But this is racing and anything can happen, especially in a sprint. I do think the pace will be fast with Bushwacker and Finallymadeit in front. Those two will likely go very fast because they can and will likely need to in order to stay ahead of Mach Ride who will be right on their heels. When they turn for home I do think Mach Ride has the lead and maybe even opens up a bit. Tropic Storm will be trying to make some headway but it really becomes a question of how fast did they go early and does Benny The Bull get a clean trip? If you want a real bomb how about Storm in May. He won a Sunshine Millions race last year under much the same conditions over Idiot Proof at 26/1. He could be double that in here and the race again sets up for a closer. Now there was no Benny the Bull in that one and Storm In May himself seemed to be in better form last year but he coming off a Turf race and that angle has served him very well in his career. He is 3-1-1-1 when going turf to dirt and twice he was over 20/1. A definite must use underneath and maybe worth a few bucks on his nose.
Benny The Bull
Storm In May
Sunshine Millions Oaks
The Oaks has attracted two high quality fillies and I think the race will be decided between them. Blitzing has been dominant ever since she came back from a break. Things didn't go right for her in the Spinaway but they've certainly gone right recently. She slammed American County (who came back as a winner and is in the field today) then returned and beat Syriana's Song by over 7 lengths during Asmussen's dominant run at the Fair Grounds. The one concern with her is that she has run 5 times now and has faced the toughest competition but she has not really improved to a level that is significantly above the others. It is hard to see her out of the top two but there is always the chance that someone could improve and beat her. Sindy Jacobson looks like a good candidate for the mild upset. She will likely be the second choice and she is the one that the Asmussen barn would likely fear the most. She has never been on dirt but she's by More Than Ready so it's hard to see her struggling on it. In fact she may improve on it. She won her first two races without much fuss then got served by California's best filly sprinter Spring Awakening to whom she was giving quite an edge in experience. I think she'll come on quite a bit for that run and the cutback in distance should help as well. California is renown for it's speed and very often the reputation is well deserved. It is not at all unusual for a Cali speedster to come east and give the locals a lesson in early pace. Blitzing is still scary but I think I'll lean slightly for Sindy Jacobson. Also don't count out Yogi'ssplashofgold to hit the frame. She showed some nice form as a 2yo and could be cycling back up to her peak.
Sindy Jacobson
Sunshine Millions Distaff
The Sunshine Millions usually always features at least one crazy result with a boxcar payoff. Distaff winners returning to the track for the first time after the BC are just 2 for 8 since 1996. The last two winners who continued to race, Ashado and Round Pond, both finished out of the money in their first start back. So I'm sure there will be those clinging to those numbers and hoping that Ginger Punch simply doesn't fire. I'm going to resist the temptation to get interesting and simply stick with Ginger Punch. The only horse who looks as if they have any chance against her is Bayou's Lassie but there is so much pace in here I'm not sure if she'll be good enough. Leah's Secret could step up for Pletcher but that is basically a shot in the dark. Ginger Punch would basically have to regress to her maiden race form to be in any danger here. I think the pace works against her slightly and I've never been totally convinced that she loves 9f but she is in a different class.
Ginger Punch
Sunshine Millions Turf
I see this as the most interesting race on the Gulfstream card. There are many ways you could go and that should mean some nice prices, even for the well regarded horses. Icy Atlantic might be the main focus after his 4th, 3rd and 2nd place finishes in this race. He has run progressively better in this fixture over the past three years and it would be quite fitting if he culminated that run with a win. This is likely the easiest field he will have faced on Sunshine Millions day so the chance is there. Since coming to Pletcher the only times he has really underperformed is when he's been in against G-1 level horses or when he's been used as a pacemaker. On his own this gallant 7yo has been a steady performer. I respect him a great deal but most likely we're looking at 3 or 4/1 on a horse who could easily beat this group but could also easily lose to this group. It's an even field, no sense jumping at a chance to play the favorite. A horse I actually adore in this race is the "other" Pletcher horse Ruff And Ready. He has had physical issues all his life and has managed only 9 starts over 4 years. Pletcher brought him back in late 07 in a race that came off the turf and he looked like he needed it. Next time out they got him back on his preferred surface and he ran a huge race against very solid allowance class horses. The pace was quick and he was in a decent spot right in behind the speed but as they swung for home Johnny V committed to the rail and he got squeezed. By the time he got through there was not much ground left and the closers were coming hard on the outside. Ruff and Ready got through the gap and managed to get his nose to the line first while still not up to top speed. In races prior to his latest big setback he showed a very nice turf of foot and his speed figures, while not all that fast, are decent enough to make you think he could step up into stakes company. No one has beaten him on the grass and I like him to pull off the upset. War Monger also has a huge chance, Mott has brought him along slowly but has also campaigned him as he would a future star. War Monger has done very well and this is actually not the toughest race he's ever run in. The Jamaica Handicap was a brutal race to make a stakes debut in and to make matters worse they changed styles on him in that one. It would not surprise me at all to see this horse go on to be one of the best in the east and this is a logical first step. I notice the morning line has 6/1 on him. If you get anything near that it's a gift. The Californians don't look that great. Epic Power and Lucky J.H. have chances to hit the board but I'm going to stay with the Eastern horses in this one. French Vintage is an interesting bomb. He was closing hard against tougher just a few weeks back on the same course. The added distance and lighter competition makes him dangerous and a much better contender than his odds will suggest. It's hard for one run closers to have a consistent winning percentage and he's on an 8 race losing streak, but his form is good, it's just that the setup's have not been there. There seems to be a good amount of pace here so don't rule him out.
Ruff And Ready
War Monger
French Vintage
The opening race of what looks like a great renewal of the Sunshine Millions. Possibly the deepest ever over the eight races even though the Classic does not look all that tough. One has to think that if Benny The Bull is ready to run this race should be meat and drink to him. I know you have the classy Mach Ride and the speedy Bushwacker who recently beat the hot In Summation but there seems to be a lot of speed so the pace should setup and Benny The Bull has been working very well. He's a 6f specialist and his connections have to be thinking of this as the first step to a campaign of mostly G-1 races. I'm not sure if many others in this field, aside from Mach Ride could realistically harbor those expectations. But this is racing and anything can happen, especially in a sprint. I do think the pace will be fast with Bushwacker and Finallymadeit in front. Those two will likely go very fast because they can and will likely need to in order to stay ahead of Mach Ride who will be right on their heels. When they turn for home I do think Mach Ride has the lead and maybe even opens up a bit. Tropic Storm will be trying to make some headway but it really becomes a question of how fast did they go early and does Benny The Bull get a clean trip? If you want a real bomb how about Storm in May. He won a Sunshine Millions race last year under much the same conditions over Idiot Proof at 26/1. He could be double that in here and the race again sets up for a closer. Now there was no Benny the Bull in that one and Storm In May himself seemed to be in better form last year but he coming off a Turf race and that angle has served him very well in his career. He is 3-1-1-1 when going turf to dirt and twice he was over 20/1. A definite must use underneath and maybe worth a few bucks on his nose.
Benny The Bull
Storm In May
Sunshine Millions Oaks
The Oaks has attracted two high quality fillies and I think the race will be decided between them. Blitzing has been dominant ever since she came back from a break. Things didn't go right for her in the Spinaway but they've certainly gone right recently. She slammed American County (who came back as a winner and is in the field today) then returned and beat Syriana's Song by over 7 lengths during Asmussen's dominant run at the Fair Grounds. The one concern with her is that she has run 5 times now and has faced the toughest competition but she has not really improved to a level that is significantly above the others. It is hard to see her out of the top two but there is always the chance that someone could improve and beat her. Sindy Jacobson looks like a good candidate for the mild upset. She will likely be the second choice and she is the one that the Asmussen barn would likely fear the most. She has never been on dirt but she's by More Than Ready so it's hard to see her struggling on it. In fact she may improve on it. She won her first two races without much fuss then got served by California's best filly sprinter Spring Awakening to whom she was giving quite an edge in experience. I think she'll come on quite a bit for that run and the cutback in distance should help as well. California is renown for it's speed and very often the reputation is well deserved. It is not at all unusual for a Cali speedster to come east and give the locals a lesson in early pace. Blitzing is still scary but I think I'll lean slightly for Sindy Jacobson. Also don't count out Yogi'ssplashofgold to hit the frame. She showed some nice form as a 2yo and could be cycling back up to her peak.
Sindy Jacobson
Sunshine Millions Distaff
The Sunshine Millions usually always features at least one crazy result with a boxcar payoff. Distaff winners returning to the track for the first time after the BC are just 2 for 8 since 1996. The last two winners who continued to race, Ashado and Round Pond, both finished out of the money in their first start back. So I'm sure there will be those clinging to those numbers and hoping that Ginger Punch simply doesn't fire. I'm going to resist the temptation to get interesting and simply stick with Ginger Punch. The only horse who looks as if they have any chance against her is Bayou's Lassie but there is so much pace in here I'm not sure if she'll be good enough. Leah's Secret could step up for Pletcher but that is basically a shot in the dark. Ginger Punch would basically have to regress to her maiden race form to be in any danger here. I think the pace works against her slightly and I've never been totally convinced that she loves 9f but she is in a different class.
Ginger Punch
Sunshine Millions Turf
I see this as the most interesting race on the Gulfstream card. There are many ways you could go and that should mean some nice prices, even for the well regarded horses. Icy Atlantic might be the main focus after his 4th, 3rd and 2nd place finishes in this race. He has run progressively better in this fixture over the past three years and it would be quite fitting if he culminated that run with a win. This is likely the easiest field he will have faced on Sunshine Millions day so the chance is there. Since coming to Pletcher the only times he has really underperformed is when he's been in against G-1 level horses or when he's been used as a pacemaker. On his own this gallant 7yo has been a steady performer. I respect him a great deal but most likely we're looking at 3 or 4/1 on a horse who could easily beat this group but could also easily lose to this group. It's an even field, no sense jumping at a chance to play the favorite. A horse I actually adore in this race is the "other" Pletcher horse Ruff And Ready. He has had physical issues all his life and has managed only 9 starts over 4 years. Pletcher brought him back in late 07 in a race that came off the turf and he looked like he needed it. Next time out they got him back on his preferred surface and he ran a huge race against very solid allowance class horses. The pace was quick and he was in a decent spot right in behind the speed but as they swung for home Johnny V committed to the rail and he got squeezed. By the time he got through there was not much ground left and the closers were coming hard on the outside. Ruff and Ready got through the gap and managed to get his nose to the line first while still not up to top speed. In races prior to his latest big setback he showed a very nice turf of foot and his speed figures, while not all that fast, are decent enough to make you think he could step up into stakes company. No one has beaten him on the grass and I like him to pull off the upset. War Monger also has a huge chance, Mott has brought him along slowly but has also campaigned him as he would a future star. War Monger has done very well and this is actually not the toughest race he's ever run in. The Jamaica Handicap was a brutal race to make a stakes debut in and to make matters worse they changed styles on him in that one. It would not surprise me at all to see this horse go on to be one of the best in the east and this is a logical first step. I notice the morning line has 6/1 on him. If you get anything near that it's a gift. The Californians don't look that great. Epic Power and Lucky J.H. have chances to hit the board but I'm going to stay with the Eastern horses in this one. French Vintage is an interesting bomb. He was closing hard against tougher just a few weeks back on the same course. The added distance and lighter competition makes him dangerous and a much better contender than his odds will suggest. It's hard for one run closers to have a consistent winning percentage and he's on an 8 race losing streak, but his form is good, it's just that the setup's have not been there. There seems to be a good amount of pace here so don't rule him out.
Ruff And Ready
War Monger
French Vintage
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Since the weekend is long past and nothing much happened anyway I'll dispense with the weekend review for this week. I'll still remember to tally my losing bets for the weekend but those results will be combined with this weeks tally. Now onto the Derby Top 10.
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
This week I'm starting to essentially have a paradigm shift in the way I'm assessing the Derby contenders. When the list is first created it is based largely on 2yo form. That is really all we have to go off of. But I am beginning to suspect that much of the 2yo form we saw was not all that great and in many cases the 3yo's we see who pop up with big moves are actually superior in quality. Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style and Slew's Tiznow have all been dropped off the radar. None of them have worked yet this year and I'd rather go with hot horses who are less exposed. That trio could possibly work their way back on the list but they have to prove it with their 3yo form and the lack of works makes that an more unlikely scenario. War Pass remains at #1 despite the news of his bout of colic. The main reason is because there is not any other horse who actually deserves the #1 slot. I know it is still January but we have not seen an overabundance of impressive 3yo's, we've hardly seen any. A few that I'm looking forward to. Signature Move, an Eric Guillot horse is being bullishly touted by his connections. He is 3-2-0-1 in his career with an allowance win around two turns. They are already plotting where he will go after he "wins the Risen Star". Never mind that it will be his stakes debut his connections have no doubt at all that he'll be the winner. After seeing the way he moved away from his competition last time I'm not sure I disagree with them. There have been 4 impressive races at Gulfstream that have caught my eye. Elysium Fields was the latest, he got blinkers for the first time and easily confirmed the promise he had hinted at when losing his first three starts. Blinkers can often make a horse turn the corner as we clearly saw with Daaher. Another horse who actually beat Elysium Fields at Laurel and came back with a good GP race of his own was Visionaire. This Matz trainee has been quite impressive without ever being that fast but very often you'll see talented horses move their speed figures up significantly once they're pressed in stakes company. Jockey Ridge owns the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure at this stage for his win in a 6.5f race at Gulfstream. It was the classic step forward off a solid debut. I don't really like the way that he appeared so comfortable going right to the lead and out sprinting everyone else but he's bred to go longer so we'll keep an eye out. Lastly Kentucky Bear burst onto the scene with a very nice debut performance. He has a bit awkward in parts but he was much the best and won for fun. I'm not sure that any of his competition really showed up but it was probably the best career debut of any 3yo so far this year. All of these horses mentioned get added to the radar for this week while the top 10 remains unchanged.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
Dropped: Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style, Slew's Tiznow
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
This week I'm starting to essentially have a paradigm shift in the way I'm assessing the Derby contenders. When the list is first created it is based largely on 2yo form. That is really all we have to go off of. But I am beginning to suspect that much of the 2yo form we saw was not all that great and in many cases the 3yo's we see who pop up with big moves are actually superior in quality. Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style and Slew's Tiznow have all been dropped off the radar. None of them have worked yet this year and I'd rather go with hot horses who are less exposed. That trio could possibly work their way back on the list but they have to prove it with their 3yo form and the lack of works makes that an more unlikely scenario. War Pass remains at #1 despite the news of his bout of colic. The main reason is because there is not any other horse who actually deserves the #1 slot. I know it is still January but we have not seen an overabundance of impressive 3yo's, we've hardly seen any. A few that I'm looking forward to. Signature Move, an Eric Guillot horse is being bullishly touted by his connections. He is 3-2-0-1 in his career with an allowance win around two turns. They are already plotting where he will go after he "wins the Risen Star". Never mind that it will be his stakes debut his connections have no doubt at all that he'll be the winner. After seeing the way he moved away from his competition last time I'm not sure I disagree with them. There have been 4 impressive races at Gulfstream that have caught my eye. Elysium Fields was the latest, he got blinkers for the first time and easily confirmed the promise he had hinted at when losing his first three starts. Blinkers can often make a horse turn the corner as we clearly saw with Daaher. Another horse who actually beat Elysium Fields at Laurel and came back with a good GP race of his own was Visionaire. This Matz trainee has been quite impressive without ever being that fast but very often you'll see talented horses move their speed figures up significantly once they're pressed in stakes company. Jockey Ridge owns the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure at this stage for his win in a 6.5f race at Gulfstream. It was the classic step forward off a solid debut. I don't really like the way that he appeared so comfortable going right to the lead and out sprinting everyone else but he's bred to go longer so we'll keep an eye out. Lastly Kentucky Bear burst onto the scene with a very nice debut performance. He has a bit awkward in parts but he was much the best and won for fun. I'm not sure that any of his competition really showed up but it was probably the best career debut of any 3yo so far this year. All of these horses mentioned get added to the radar for this week while the top 10 remains unchanged.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
Dropped: Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style, Slew's Tiznow
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
TCR Awards 2007
The votes have been tallied and the final results tabulated. Curlin wins the TCR Horse of the Year by a substantial margin!
The TCR Awards are a unique feature to Kennedy's Corridor. The vision of the TCR Awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice.
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. These point standings are then combined with a fans vote at the end of the year to determine the champions.
For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as detailed results from the TCR Awards at this link. The TCR Award results will also be on display on the sidebar for the next week.
2007 TCR Award Winners
Horse Of The Year - Curlin
Older Male - Lawyer Ron
Older Female - Ginger Punch
Turf Male - English Channel
Turf Female - Precious Kitten
Male Sprinter - Midnight Lute
Female Sprinter - River's Prayer
Three Year Old Male - Curlin
Three Year Old Female - Rags To Riches
Two Year Old Male - War Pass
Two Year Old Female - Indian Blessing
No major surprises as all 11 award winners were also the top ranked horses in the TCR standings. All but one winner (River's Prayer) were also the top vote getter's in each category. The Turf Female Division was a contentious one but top scorer Precious Kitten also received the most votes from fans narrowly over Lahudood. She had a champions campaign and is a most deserving winner. River's Prayer finished first in the rankings and a narrow second in the voting and that was enough to hold off Dream Rush and Maryfield who both received a lot of support as well. In fact those three were separated by less than 2% in the voting. River's Prayer never lost in 2007 and she won on 3 different surfaces including a sound beating of Maryfield in the G-1 Princess Rooney.
I think this was yet another successful year for the TCR Awards as it continues to demonstrate that point systems despite the fears surrounding them, do come out with logical results. And that a well thought out approach in terms of voting guidelines, divisional guidelines could easily be adopted.
We look forward to an excellent 2008. Standings for the current year will be posted starting next week.
The TCR Awards are a unique feature to Kennedy's Corridor. The vision of the TCR Awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice.
TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. These point standings are then combined with a fans vote at the end of the year to determine the champions.
For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as detailed results from the TCR Awards at this link. The TCR Award results will also be on display on the sidebar for the next week.
2007 TCR Award Winners
Horse Of The Year - Curlin
Older Male - Lawyer Ron
Older Female - Ginger Punch
Turf Male - English Channel
Turf Female - Precious Kitten
Male Sprinter - Midnight Lute
Female Sprinter - River's Prayer
Three Year Old Male - Curlin
Three Year Old Female - Rags To Riches
Two Year Old Male - War Pass
Two Year Old Female - Indian Blessing
No major surprises as all 11 award winners were also the top ranked horses in the TCR standings. All but one winner (River's Prayer) were also the top vote getter's in each category. The Turf Female Division was a contentious one but top scorer Precious Kitten also received the most votes from fans narrowly over Lahudood. She had a champions campaign and is a most deserving winner. River's Prayer finished first in the rankings and a narrow second in the voting and that was enough to hold off Dream Rush and Maryfield who both received a lot of support as well. In fact those three were separated by less than 2% in the voting. River's Prayer never lost in 2007 and she won on 3 different surfaces including a sound beating of Maryfield in the G-1 Princess Rooney.
I think this was yet another successful year for the TCR Awards as it continues to demonstrate that point systems despite the fears surrounding them, do come out with logical results. And that a well thought out approach in terms of voting guidelines, divisional guidelines could easily be adopted.
We look forward to an excellent 2008. Standings for the current year will be posted starting next week.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Weekend Picks and Analysis
Saturday Gulfstream Race #6
It's a slow week for stakes races, not much is being offered and from the stakes races that are being run I don't see any great plays that mix a great chance to win with some possible value on the board. I do however see those two situations in Gulfstreams 6th. This is a race that has the potential to yield a contender for the Triple Crown trail if they're impressive. Obviously none of these horse have won yet but many of them are largely untested and are going for high profile connections. One of the biggest reasons I like this race is because most of the bettors will see it as a contest between Elysium Fields and Vacation. Both horses are consistent and pretty good but both have lost races that they probably should have won. The problem likely has more to do with their heads than their legs. Not all horses are born winners and Vacation in particular looks a bit vulnerable because he is not getting any changes at all and his half sister Boca Grande struggled to get 9f. Dynaformer should infuse more stamina but this horse has just been clunking up in races ever since his debut. Elysium Fields is dangerous because of getting blinkers on. that might get him into the race a little sooner but Tagg's string has been cold. Get The News is the first alternative to catch my eye. In his debut he was well thought of but he had a tough inside post and was rushed right from the start. I think a bit more patience will be possible in this longer race. Ward is very good at getting his horses to stretch out first time and he almost always reveals a good 3yo at the Gulfstream winter meet. This might be his horse. He is sending him back on relatively short rest which means he has at least considered gearing him up for some stakes races in the near future if he runs well. Another horse I like but more as a longshot is Subprime Lending. Violette is deadly with second time starters, especially those who were well bet first time out and are getting equipment changes. He has not been historically successful stretching his horses out and the 11 post is not an easy one to deal with but this horse should step forward and he might be upwards of 20/1 at the off. I would use Get The News and Subprime Lending over Elysium Fields and Vacation in exacta's. I might keep a wary eye on Admirality as well.
Get The News
Subprime Lending
It's a slow week for stakes races, not much is being offered and from the stakes races that are being run I don't see any great plays that mix a great chance to win with some possible value on the board. I do however see those two situations in Gulfstreams 6th. This is a race that has the potential to yield a contender for the Triple Crown trail if they're impressive. Obviously none of these horse have won yet but many of them are largely untested and are going for high profile connections. One of the biggest reasons I like this race is because most of the bettors will see it as a contest between Elysium Fields and Vacation. Both horses are consistent and pretty good but both have lost races that they probably should have won. The problem likely has more to do with their heads than their legs. Not all horses are born winners and Vacation in particular looks a bit vulnerable because he is not getting any changes at all and his half sister Boca Grande struggled to get 9f. Dynaformer should infuse more stamina but this horse has just been clunking up in races ever since his debut. Elysium Fields is dangerous because of getting blinkers on. that might get him into the race a little sooner but Tagg's string has been cold. Get The News is the first alternative to catch my eye. In his debut he was well thought of but he had a tough inside post and was rushed right from the start. I think a bit more patience will be possible in this longer race. Ward is very good at getting his horses to stretch out first time and he almost always reveals a good 3yo at the Gulfstream winter meet. This might be his horse. He is sending him back on relatively short rest which means he has at least considered gearing him up for some stakes races in the near future if he runs well. Another horse I like but more as a longshot is Subprime Lending. Violette is deadly with second time starters, especially those who were well bet first time out and are getting equipment changes. He has not been historically successful stretching his horses out and the 11 post is not an easy one to deal with but this horse should step forward and he might be upwards of 20/1 at the off. I would use Get The News and Subprime Lending over Elysium Fields and Vacation in exacta's. I might keep a wary eye on Admirality as well.
Get The News
Subprime Lending
Thursday, January 17, 2008
World Rankings Reworked
I'm quite intrigued with rankings. Even before I got into creating my own point system I spent a lot of time perusing over all types of different rankings like the Timeform Rankings, Globeform, Racing Post Ratings, the Experimental Free Handicap and of course the IFHA World Thoroughbred Rankings. They are likely the most respected rankings anywhere in the world. Although America in general treats any world ranking system with skepticism bordering on derision this is definitely the one ranking that is best accepted.
America does not officially recognize a "Horse of the World" in any given year but unofficially the IFHA top ranked horse claims the title the world over.
All of these rankings are based on the Experimental Free Weight Handicap concept that you rate a horse according to the weight differential necessary to make two horses equal. So if your horse was rated 124 and mine 120 it means that in the opinion of the rankings my horse would have to carry 4 lbs less than yours in a race in order for it to be a fair contest.
The problem with this type of ranking is A) they're based solely on the opinions of an expert panel and B) they represent only what the handicappers assume to be the horses top effort. Accomplishments are never brought into the picture. It is simply an attempt to identify which horse is the best at their best. That is why you'll see a horse like Any Given Saturday listed below. He was by no means one of the 10 most accomplished horses in the World in 2007, but in the panels opinion his Haskell was one of the 10 best races of the year.
IFHA World Thoroughbred Ranking
1. Manduro (GER) 131 FR
2. Authorized (IRE) 129 GB
2. Curlin (USA) 129 USA
2. Dylan Thomas (IRE) 129 IRE
2. Invasor (ARG) 129 USA
6. Street Sense (USA) 126 USA
7. Admire Moon (JPN) 125 JPN
7. English Channel (USA) 125 USA
7. Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 125 IRE
10. Any Given Saturday (USA) 124 USA
10. Lawyer Ron (USA) 124 USA
10. Youmzain (IRE) 124 GB
I personally believe that accomplishments are more worthy of laud so I put my own TCR point system into use and tried to get a picture of who the top 10 most accomplished horses in the world were.
TCR World Overall Top 10
1. Dylan Thomas - 491.90 IRE
2. Curlin - 460.20 USA
3. English Channel - 334.60 USA
4. Miss Andretti - 315.80 AUS
5. Street Sense - 311.08 USA
6. Admire Moon - 309.00 JPN
7. Hard Spun - 292.08 USA
8. Ginger Punch - 288.38 USA
9. Manduro - 286.60 FR
10. Ramonti - 264.50 GB
Viva Pataca (256.96) and El Segundo (253.80) narrowly missed the top 10 representing Hong Kong and Australia respectively. A few will likely react to Dylan Thomas's name at the head of the list but this is based on accomplishments only and he did have quite the year. Manduro is ranked just 9th but injury halted his campaign. A win in the Arc (a race he would have been favored for) would have seen him climb to the top.
Just something to think about if you happen to have the same fascination with rankings as I.
America does not officially recognize a "Horse of the World" in any given year but unofficially the IFHA top ranked horse claims the title the world over.
All of these rankings are based on the Experimental Free Weight Handicap concept that you rate a horse according to the weight differential necessary to make two horses equal. So if your horse was rated 124 and mine 120 it means that in the opinion of the rankings my horse would have to carry 4 lbs less than yours in a race in order for it to be a fair contest.
The problem with this type of ranking is A) they're based solely on the opinions of an expert panel and B) they represent only what the handicappers assume to be the horses top effort. Accomplishments are never brought into the picture. It is simply an attempt to identify which horse is the best at their best. That is why you'll see a horse like Any Given Saturday listed below. He was by no means one of the 10 most accomplished horses in the World in 2007, but in the panels opinion his Haskell was one of the 10 best races of the year.
IFHA World Thoroughbred Ranking
1. Manduro (GER) 131 FR
2. Authorized (IRE) 129 GB
2. Curlin (USA) 129 USA
2. Dylan Thomas (IRE) 129 IRE
2. Invasor (ARG) 129 USA
6. Street Sense (USA) 126 USA
7. Admire Moon (JPN) 125 JPN
7. English Channel (USA) 125 USA
7. Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 125 IRE
10. Any Given Saturday (USA) 124 USA
10. Lawyer Ron (USA) 124 USA
10. Youmzain (IRE) 124 GB
I personally believe that accomplishments are more worthy of laud so I put my own TCR point system into use and tried to get a picture of who the top 10 most accomplished horses in the world were.
TCR World Overall Top 10
1. Dylan Thomas - 491.90 IRE
2. Curlin - 460.20 USA
3. English Channel - 334.60 USA
4. Miss Andretti - 315.80 AUS
5. Street Sense - 311.08 USA
6. Admire Moon - 309.00 JPN
7. Hard Spun - 292.08 USA
8. Ginger Punch - 288.38 USA
9. Manduro - 286.60 FR
10. Ramonti - 264.50 GB
Viva Pataca (256.96) and El Segundo (253.80) narrowly missed the top 10 representing Hong Kong and Australia respectively. A few will likely react to Dylan Thomas's name at the head of the list but this is based on accomplishments only and he did have quite the year. Manduro is ranked just 9th but injury halted his campaign. A win in the Arc (a race he would have been favored for) would have seen him climb to the top.
Just something to think about if you happen to have the same fascination with rankings as I.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Myth Buster - Dosage
It seems that every year the Dosage figures of all the Derby contenders get bandied about. Some get drawn into the notion that only certain horses with a certain Dosage profile are bred to win the Derby. I beg to differ, a look at the numbers suggests that Dosage and the Dual Qualifier system has no validity at all. I think that it is flawed to the core. For those of you who aren't aware what Dosage and Dual Qualifiers are here is a brief explanation.
Dosage is a points system that essentially tries to predict a horses most effective racing distances by their breeding. The rule of thumb is that no horse with a Dosage over 4.00 has the breeding to be a Derby winner. A Dual Qualifier is simply a horse with Dosage less than 4.00 and a rating on the Experimental Free Handicap that is within 10lbs of the division leader. That is to say the two components are breeding and a solid 2yo season.
Dosage is useless as a handicapping tool. It was created to be useful with past data and has a poor record going forward. Its effectiveness is decreasing with each passing generation because new sires come onto the scene and don’t get added to the Chef-de-race list until their progeny have already proven themselves. Another reason why its useless is because it eliminates virtually nobody. In the past 12 years 89% of the Derby starters have had a dosage of 4 or less. So essentially on average 18 of the 20 starters have the requisite Dosage to win the Derby. The cumulative record of the non-Dosage qualifiers is 23-3-1-1. Ironically if you focus on the 23 horses who didn’t have a low dosage you might have done very well indeed.
In 12 years you've got just 23 horses who didn’t have a dosage of 4.00 or less from 214 starters. A straight win bet on each prospect would have cost $46 and returned $186. A tidy little 328% ROI. Also the non-Dosage qualifiers boast a sturdy 2.34 Impact Value, meaning that each horse with a dosage of over 4.00 has won the Derby almost two and half times more than they would be statistically expected to do.
The problem with the dosage system is that its based on stallion progeny statistics which of course are only relevant once the stallions progeny record is complete. That is why this system struggles on a going forward basis. It can only tell 10 years after the fact who the chef's-de-race for that period actually were. It is a lagging quantifier instead of a leading indicator.
The reason Dual Qualifiers doesn't really work is because not only is Dosage fundamentally flawed but the Experimental Free Handicap is also flawed. First of all its a ranking compiled based on the opinions of handicappers. Like Timeform or the International Classification ratings its a subjective rating. Secondly the way 2yo's and 3yo's are being campaigned differs greatly from how they were in the 70's and 80's. 2yo's are maxxed out in order to capitalize on their precocity and are washed up by the time the Derby preps roll around. Top Derby candidates are often brought around slowly and often aren’t cranked up until they're 3yo's.
Street Sense did manage to win the Derby as a Dual Qualifier last year. However he was actually just 1 of the 8 Dual Qualifiers in the race so betting on them was again a losing proposition. Dual Qualifiers since 1996 have compiled a Derby record of 42-2-2-2 and have yielded a shabby -69.3% ROI. Compare that to the figures for the non Dosage qualifiers above then decide which one you think looks better.
The performance of the Dual Qualifiers in the Derby itself has been declining every single decade since it's inception.
1973-79
7 races
7 winners (100.0%)
19 DQs (19.8%)
36.8% DQ winners
96 starters
IV = 5.05
1980-89
10 races
8 winners (80.0%)
33 DQs (19.3%)
24.2% DQ winners
171 starters
IV = 4.15
1990-99
10 races
5 winners (55.6%)
39 DQs (25.7%)
12.8% DQ winners
152 starters
IV = 2.16
2000-07
8 races
1 winners (12.5%)
28 DQs (18.9%)
3.8% DQ winners
148 starters
IV = 0.66
The one thing you ought to note is that the DQ system has a declining winning pct for every successive decade of data provided. To get a better picture you should remove the years 1973 to 1983. Those years are of course perfect, because the system was created on historical data and was not officially released until 1984. The real test of a system is not using back tested data but from a certain point going forward.
Since 1983 there have been 24 Derby's and just 10 Derby winners fit the system. What it means for the Dosage theory is that its most successful period was prior to its actual creation, which of course leads one to assume curve fitting was an integral part of the research. On a going forward basis the entire system has been under performing. Even look at the system on a 5 year basis
4 of 5
2 of 5
3 of 5
0 of 5
1 of 4
The system has been irrelevant since 5 years after it was created. Up to that time it only missed 1 of 16 Derby's. Since then its gone 6 for 19.
This very much flies in the face of conventional wisdom, pretty much everyone accepts that Dosage is a handy tool to help narrow down Derby contenders, but the real test of every system is how well it does going forward. Even my own Triple Crown 20-20 is a system in its infancy based primarily on historical data. If it fails to perform over the next 5 years it will be a useless fraud.
Be very careful about the Statistics you accept. Just because they seem good at a glance doesn't mean they're useful at all. Among the horses on this years Triple Crown Trail with a Dosage greater than 4.00 are War Pass and El Gato Malo. It remains to be seen if either will make it to the Derby but as of now both look like decent plays. It may be yet another tough year for the Dosage system.
Dosage is a points system that essentially tries to predict a horses most effective racing distances by their breeding. The rule of thumb is that no horse with a Dosage over 4.00 has the breeding to be a Derby winner. A Dual Qualifier is simply a horse with Dosage less than 4.00 and a rating on the Experimental Free Handicap that is within 10lbs of the division leader. That is to say the two components are breeding and a solid 2yo season.
Dosage is useless as a handicapping tool. It was created to be useful with past data and has a poor record going forward. Its effectiveness is decreasing with each passing generation because new sires come onto the scene and don’t get added to the Chef-de-race list until their progeny have already proven themselves. Another reason why its useless is because it eliminates virtually nobody. In the past 12 years 89% of the Derby starters have had a dosage of 4 or less. So essentially on average 18 of the 20 starters have the requisite Dosage to win the Derby. The cumulative record of the non-Dosage qualifiers is 23-3-1-1. Ironically if you focus on the 23 horses who didn’t have a low dosage you might have done very well indeed.
In 12 years you've got just 23 horses who didn’t have a dosage of 4.00 or less from 214 starters. A straight win bet on each prospect would have cost $46 and returned $186. A tidy little 328% ROI. Also the non-Dosage qualifiers boast a sturdy 2.34 Impact Value, meaning that each horse with a dosage of over 4.00 has won the Derby almost two and half times more than they would be statistically expected to do.
The problem with the dosage system is that its based on stallion progeny statistics which of course are only relevant once the stallions progeny record is complete. That is why this system struggles on a going forward basis. It can only tell 10 years after the fact who the chef's-de-race for that period actually were. It is a lagging quantifier instead of a leading indicator.
The reason Dual Qualifiers doesn't really work is because not only is Dosage fundamentally flawed but the Experimental Free Handicap is also flawed. First of all its a ranking compiled based on the opinions of handicappers. Like Timeform or the International Classification ratings its a subjective rating. Secondly the way 2yo's and 3yo's are being campaigned differs greatly from how they were in the 70's and 80's. 2yo's are maxxed out in order to capitalize on their precocity and are washed up by the time the Derby preps roll around. Top Derby candidates are often brought around slowly and often aren’t cranked up until they're 3yo's.
Street Sense did manage to win the Derby as a Dual Qualifier last year. However he was actually just 1 of the 8 Dual Qualifiers in the race so betting on them was again a losing proposition. Dual Qualifiers since 1996 have compiled a Derby record of 42-2-2-2 and have yielded a shabby -69.3% ROI. Compare that to the figures for the non Dosage qualifiers above then decide which one you think looks better.
The performance of the Dual Qualifiers in the Derby itself has been declining every single decade since it's inception.
1973-79
7 races
7 winners (100.0%)
19 DQs (19.8%)
36.8% DQ winners
96 starters
IV = 5.05
1980-89
10 races
8 winners (80.0%)
33 DQs (19.3%)
24.2% DQ winners
171 starters
IV = 4.15
1990-99
10 races
5 winners (55.6%)
39 DQs (25.7%)
12.8% DQ winners
152 starters
IV = 2.16
2000-07
8 races
1 winners (12.5%)
28 DQs (18.9%)
3.8% DQ winners
148 starters
IV = 0.66
The one thing you ought to note is that the DQ system has a declining winning pct for every successive decade of data provided. To get a better picture you should remove the years 1973 to 1983. Those years are of course perfect, because the system was created on historical data and was not officially released until 1984. The real test of a system is not using back tested data but from a certain point going forward.
Since 1983 there have been 24 Derby's and just 10 Derby winners fit the system. What it means for the Dosage theory is that its most successful period was prior to its actual creation, which of course leads one to assume curve fitting was an integral part of the research. On a going forward basis the entire system has been under performing. Even look at the system on a 5 year basis
4 of 5
2 of 5
3 of 5
0 of 5
1 of 4
The system has been irrelevant since 5 years after it was created. Up to that time it only missed 1 of 16 Derby's. Since then its gone 6 for 19.
This very much flies in the face of conventional wisdom, pretty much everyone accepts that Dosage is a handy tool to help narrow down Derby contenders, but the real test of every system is how well it does going forward. Even my own Triple Crown 20-20 is a system in its infancy based primarily on historical data. If it fails to perform over the next 5 years it will be a useless fraud.
Be very careful about the Statistics you accept. Just because they seem good at a glance doesn't mean they're useful at all. Among the horses on this years Triple Crown Trail with a Dosage greater than 4.00 are War Pass and El Gato Malo. It remains to be seen if either will make it to the Derby but as of now both look like decent plays. It may be yet another tough year for the Dosage system.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - January 15th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (new)
10. El Gato Malo (new)
I won't bore you with a reiteration of why I think War Pass is still the #1 Derby prospect in the nation. In general I'll try to confine my weekly analysis to the current happenings. Riley Tucker and Monba have been temporarily relegated to the radar list following some nice performances from some undefeated horses. I have Z Fortune rated the better of the two for a variety of reasons. Not among them is the brilliance factor, Z Fortune is not a terribly brilliant horse but so far in his career he has never lost. In fact he has never really appeared in danger of losing. He has run on three different tracks, shown the ability to win on the pace or from off it and each time the final furlong has been fairly comfortable for him. Although he has been driven to the line he has never had to deal with pressure late on. His speed figures are quite decent for this stage in his career. He received a 95 for the LeComte, as long as he continues to improve his level of performance on the racetrack he will move up this list. I do not expect him to remain undefeated all the way to the Derby but if he can improve even without winning he will be a dangerous horse. He is bred to love the distance and physically he looks like he'll love a route of ground. The horse that was directly behind him in the LeComte, Blackberry Road, is getting a decent amount of attention but not from me. He needs to start winning races to get included. The classiest loser of this crop is Pyro, I don't need two horses who can't win on the list. El Gato Malo was breathtaking in the San Rafael. He is a beautiful mover who in his short career has shown a few different facets and most of all, sheer brilliance. The pace of the San Rafael did setup for him but the way he quickly accelerated was the sign of a good horse. In his previous start he also showed willingness to get through tight gaps with ease. So he's brave as well as quick. The world is seemingly at his feet and in terms of visual impression while in motion you'd be hard pressed to find any that match him. But I do have a few questions about him. He has the look of a miler. His quickness and breeding suggest that perhaps his best distance will be 9f and below. That isn't written in stone though as there are thousands of examples of horses outstaying their pedigree. The best thing we can do is observe him over the coming months. But there is also one more factor that makes me nervous. He has never been on dirt and it's highly possible that he may never try dirt until the Derby itself. That is far from an ideal situation, although he's bred for dirt you never quite know how a horse will do on its first time out. Especially in a race like the Derby where kickback is nearly unavoidable. As is often the case, the horses we see with the greatest capacity for brilliance also have some real frailties.
On the radar: Riley Tucker (9), Monba (10), Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (new)
10. El Gato Malo (new)
I won't bore you with a reiteration of why I think War Pass is still the #1 Derby prospect in the nation. In general I'll try to confine my weekly analysis to the current happenings. Riley Tucker and Monba have been temporarily relegated to the radar list following some nice performances from some undefeated horses. I have Z Fortune rated the better of the two for a variety of reasons. Not among them is the brilliance factor, Z Fortune is not a terribly brilliant horse but so far in his career he has never lost. In fact he has never really appeared in danger of losing. He has run on three different tracks, shown the ability to win on the pace or from off it and each time the final furlong has been fairly comfortable for him. Although he has been driven to the line he has never had to deal with pressure late on. His speed figures are quite decent for this stage in his career. He received a 95 for the LeComte, as long as he continues to improve his level of performance on the racetrack he will move up this list. I do not expect him to remain undefeated all the way to the Derby but if he can improve even without winning he will be a dangerous horse. He is bred to love the distance and physically he looks like he'll love a route of ground. The horse that was directly behind him in the LeComte, Blackberry Road, is getting a decent amount of attention but not from me. He needs to start winning races to get included. The classiest loser of this crop is Pyro, I don't need two horses who can't win on the list. El Gato Malo was breathtaking in the San Rafael. He is a beautiful mover who in his short career has shown a few different facets and most of all, sheer brilliance. The pace of the San Rafael did setup for him but the way he quickly accelerated was the sign of a good horse. In his previous start he also showed willingness to get through tight gaps with ease. So he's brave as well as quick. The world is seemingly at his feet and in terms of visual impression while in motion you'd be hard pressed to find any that match him. But I do have a few questions about him. He has the look of a miler. His quickness and breeding suggest that perhaps his best distance will be 9f and below. That isn't written in stone though as there are thousands of examples of horses outstaying their pedigree. The best thing we can do is observe him over the coming months. But there is also one more factor that makes me nervous. He has never been on dirt and it's highly possible that he may never try dirt until the Derby itself. That is far from an ideal situation, although he's bred for dirt you never quite know how a horse will do on its first time out. Especially in a race like the Derby where kickback is nearly unavoidable. As is often the case, the horses we see with the greatest capacity for brilliance also have some real frailties.
On the radar: Riley Tucker (9), Monba (10), Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal
Monday, January 14, 2008
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: Steve Asmussen continued his hot streak in Louisiana. He dominated the Fair Grounds stakes races again topped off with a win by Z Fortune in the LeComte. This Zayat Stables 3yo is still undefeated, it seemed to be the weekend for undefeated horses to continue their streaks. El Gato Malo, Indian Blessing, Zenyatta, Z Fortune and Euroears all stayed unbeaten. Perhaps the most impressive individual performance at the Fair Grounds this weekend was by Euroears. He won a 6f listed stakes race and earned a 106 Beyer for the effort. It was a breakout performance for the Bret Calhoun trainee who is now 4 for 4. Watch for him in up coming graded sprint stakes.
Performance of the Week: With all due respect to El Gato Malo this has to be about Zenyatta. She looks like a combination of Rags To Riches and Nashoba's Key. A relentless racing machine with unquestioned talent and poise well beyond what her 3 career starts should entitle to her. She must learn to break, or maybe she doesn't because despite spotting the field again she circled them with some measure of ease. Flores did have to get into her a bit on the turn and leading into the stretch but I think that's more because her mind was not on the task, not because she was struggling. She's quite large for a filly and once she hits top gear she's relentless and Flores wrapped up on her again nearing the line. Just a hunch but I have to think that this filly will start scaring off lots of horses from the Santa Anita filly and mare stakes program.
Race of the Week: For pure excitement the nod has to go to the San Fernando where Air Commander nosed out Johnny Eves and paid $106.80. Tiago looked like he'd get involved for much of the stretch but I think he was too close to the pace. Johnny Eves ran his heart out and continues to overachieve while Air Commander has never looked so good. A few people may look at the result derisively because on paper Air Commander had no business doing as well as he did. But big longshots scoring always has an air of excitement about it and who can sit down during a photo finish like that one?
Flop of the Weekend: Molengao looked nothing like a horse on the cusp of something better. On the contrary he looked more like a horse who will never run again. He broke last, trailed the field, made a move on the outside when on the far turn but came up completely empty in the stretch. The horses he was chasing were not all that good. It would not shock me to see Molengao either sent to the farm or get a surface switch to wake him up.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The 2008 standings are still in their infancy. Air Commander has jumped into the top spot with his win in the San Fernando. The standings will not be updated on the sidebar until the TCR Awards winners have been named. We still need your votes so if you haven't weighed in yet please do so here. This is the last week for voting.
Tip O’the Cap: Helen Pitts did a great job bringing Einstein back to full form. He was a nice horse last year and in the opinion of some he was one of the best, if not the best, Turf horse in the early part of the year. The fall on Preakness day derailed the campaign but he was back in earnest on Friday at Gulfstream where he beat a stakes quality field at a mile. He did not earn a massive speed figure for the effort (97) but this was always a tune up and the distance didn't suit him that well.
KC Handicapping: A few of my selections went pear shaped this weekend but luckily our faith in the Canadian Turf program came through and we had a nice winner in French Beret. Sterwins ran a bit below form but was just nosed out for second. Gunfight and Molengao never ran a step in their respective races. After a long period of ineptitude last fall I've finally begun to get come momentum back. Hopefully I stay hot long enough to climb out of the whole. Over a period of about 14 months I've selected winners in 82 of 209 races and shown a flat bet loss of 3.72%. Considering the fact that I'm picking the horses at least a day beforehand it's not a terrible record but I would love to climb into positive territory.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(3)-1-0-1 (+$16.60 +207.50% ROI)
Overall record: 449(209)-82-74-67 (-$33.40 -3.72% ROI)
Performance of the Week: With all due respect to El Gato Malo this has to be about Zenyatta. She looks like a combination of Rags To Riches and Nashoba's Key. A relentless racing machine with unquestioned talent and poise well beyond what her 3 career starts should entitle to her. She must learn to break, or maybe she doesn't because despite spotting the field again she circled them with some measure of ease. Flores did have to get into her a bit on the turn and leading into the stretch but I think that's more because her mind was not on the task, not because she was struggling. She's quite large for a filly and once she hits top gear she's relentless and Flores wrapped up on her again nearing the line. Just a hunch but I have to think that this filly will start scaring off lots of horses from the Santa Anita filly and mare stakes program.
Race of the Week: For pure excitement the nod has to go to the San Fernando where Air Commander nosed out Johnny Eves and paid $106.80. Tiago looked like he'd get involved for much of the stretch but I think he was too close to the pace. Johnny Eves ran his heart out and continues to overachieve while Air Commander has never looked so good. A few people may look at the result derisively because on paper Air Commander had no business doing as well as he did. But big longshots scoring always has an air of excitement about it and who can sit down during a photo finish like that one?
Flop of the Weekend: Molengao looked nothing like a horse on the cusp of something better. On the contrary he looked more like a horse who will never run again. He broke last, trailed the field, made a move on the outside when on the far turn but came up completely empty in the stretch. The horses he was chasing were not all that good. It would not shock me to see Molengao either sent to the farm or get a surface switch to wake him up.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The 2008 standings are still in their infancy. Air Commander has jumped into the top spot with his win in the San Fernando. The standings will not be updated on the sidebar until the TCR Awards winners have been named. We still need your votes so if you haven't weighed in yet please do so here. This is the last week for voting.
Tip O’the Cap: Helen Pitts did a great job bringing Einstein back to full form. He was a nice horse last year and in the opinion of some he was one of the best, if not the best, Turf horse in the early part of the year. The fall on Preakness day derailed the campaign but he was back in earnest on Friday at Gulfstream where he beat a stakes quality field at a mile. He did not earn a massive speed figure for the effort (97) but this was always a tune up and the distance didn't suit him that well.
KC Handicapping: A few of my selections went pear shaped this weekend but luckily our faith in the Canadian Turf program came through and we had a nice winner in French Beret. Sterwins ran a bit below form but was just nosed out for second. Gunfight and Molengao never ran a step in their respective races. After a long period of ineptitude last fall I've finally begun to get come momentum back. Hopefully I stay hot long enough to climb out of the whole. Over a period of about 14 months I've selected winners in 82 of 209 races and shown a flat bet loss of 3.72%. Considering the fact that I'm picking the horses at least a day beforehand it's not a terrible record but I would love to climb into positive territory.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(3)-1-0-1 (+$16.60 +207.50% ROI)
Overall record: 449(209)-82-74-67 (-$33.40 -3.72% ROI)
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Weekend Picks and Analysis
F.W. Gaudin Memorial Stakes
A nice even field has lined up for this listed stakes at the Fair Grounds. I think there is a decent opportunity to make some money with the hottest trainer on the grounds. Steve Asmussen has been winning the stakes races at the Fair Grounds at an alarming rate and once again he has a very strong hand this Saturday. Specifically in the Gaudin he has the favorite Stormin Baghdad, a horse who we opposed in this space last time out and he also has Gunfight a newly minted older horse. Stormin Baghdad won the Bonapaw Stakes last time out after it came off the grass. He has now won his last three races on the main track and two of them at the Fair Grounds but I think he is worth opposing again. Not because he may run poorly but because I think Asmussen's other horse, Gunfight, is much better. Gunfight actually smashed Stormin Baghdad when he broke his maiden. He was 5 lengths better on that day as the pair ran 1-2. Asmussen then tried to get him into the Triple Crown trail but he came out of a bad race in the Swale and was not seen again until November. I don't have any official word of the reason for his absence but I think it's safe to say he was injured during that time. He came back against older horses at Churchill and ran a game second to Vicarian. In his second race back he showed all the promise that was evident early in his career. He demolished his competition without being asked at any point. Bridgmohan had such confidence that he just hand rode him past the field. He got a nice figure for that race and Bridgmohan who rides first call for Asmussen at the Fair Grounds chose to ride Gunfight despite winning a stakes with Stormin Baghdad last time out. Clearly the stable is high on this horse and yet he's 9/2 on the board. Semaphore Man, Euroears, Island Warrior and Sumfun make this a tough race to win even if Gunfight beats Stormin Baghdad but I think he can handle this field and possibly propel himself into some graded stakes.
Gunfight
Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap
The morning line suggest that Sterwins at 7/2 may still present some value for his backers. I thought he might be something in the nature of 7/5 for this race. He will likely be bet down a bit from that 7/2 mark but I think 5/2 is still good value for him. Sterwins looks like a decent bet to improve of his win last out against basically the same crowd. He has never really run poorly on the grass and he is better on firm ground than soft. He has a better draw this time out and because of the lack of speed he might find himself controlling this race going into the far turn. A horse like Major Rhythm or Save Big Money will likely set the tempo but Sterwins should be in that garden spot looming large all the way around. I won't use Silverfoot as an alternative because frankly I don't like the fact that his last race came in 2006. This 8 year old has class and good form on the surface but I think he'll need this one. French Beret is an interesting horse at an interesting price. He has not won a race in a very long time so it's hard to have any real confidence in him but he is as good as Sterwins on his best day and since his connections have taken to running him from the back he has been finishing with interest. He was flying in a 7.5f allowance last time out and passed the winner just after the wire. A repeat of that effort will have Sterwins backers searching for the wire. At his likely price of 12/1 or more French Beret is an excellent choice for the exotics and maybe just for an upset.
Sterwins
French Beret
San Pasqual Handicap
Not a great deal of intrigue in this race but perhaps there is some money waiting to be picked up. I had this race last weekend and of course it washed off so much of this analysis is a reprint. I thought a great deal of Molengao last year. I thought he had the talent to go on and thrust himself into the top tier of the older division. But unfortunately he was body sore by June and has been off ever since. Lobo has a very good record of bringing horses off a layoff and Molengao in particular has often done very well first time back. He is the horse to beat but he might have his hands full with Racketeer who is second off the shelf and looking sure to improve. Well Armed may try to steal this one on the front end but I think that if Molengao is in form he can run down any of these with ease. Since both Molengao and Racketeer will be short prices I'll just select Molengao and put most of my money on an exacta linking the two.
Molengao
A nice even field has lined up for this listed stakes at the Fair Grounds. I think there is a decent opportunity to make some money with the hottest trainer on the grounds. Steve Asmussen has been winning the stakes races at the Fair Grounds at an alarming rate and once again he has a very strong hand this Saturday. Specifically in the Gaudin he has the favorite Stormin Baghdad, a horse who we opposed in this space last time out and he also has Gunfight a newly minted older horse. Stormin Baghdad won the Bonapaw Stakes last time out after it came off the grass. He has now won his last three races on the main track and two of them at the Fair Grounds but I think he is worth opposing again. Not because he may run poorly but because I think Asmussen's other horse, Gunfight, is much better. Gunfight actually smashed Stormin Baghdad when he broke his maiden. He was 5 lengths better on that day as the pair ran 1-2. Asmussen then tried to get him into the Triple Crown trail but he came out of a bad race in the Swale and was not seen again until November. I don't have any official word of the reason for his absence but I think it's safe to say he was injured during that time. He came back against older horses at Churchill and ran a game second to Vicarian. In his second race back he showed all the promise that was evident early in his career. He demolished his competition without being asked at any point. Bridgmohan had such confidence that he just hand rode him past the field. He got a nice figure for that race and Bridgmohan who rides first call for Asmussen at the Fair Grounds chose to ride Gunfight despite winning a stakes with Stormin Baghdad last time out. Clearly the stable is high on this horse and yet he's 9/2 on the board. Semaphore Man, Euroears, Island Warrior and Sumfun make this a tough race to win even if Gunfight beats Stormin Baghdad but I think he can handle this field and possibly propel himself into some graded stakes.
Gunfight
Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap
The morning line suggest that Sterwins at 7/2 may still present some value for his backers. I thought he might be something in the nature of 7/5 for this race. He will likely be bet down a bit from that 7/2 mark but I think 5/2 is still good value for him. Sterwins looks like a decent bet to improve of his win last out against basically the same crowd. He has never really run poorly on the grass and he is better on firm ground than soft. He has a better draw this time out and because of the lack of speed he might find himself controlling this race going into the far turn. A horse like Major Rhythm or Save Big Money will likely set the tempo but Sterwins should be in that garden spot looming large all the way around. I won't use Silverfoot as an alternative because frankly I don't like the fact that his last race came in 2006. This 8 year old has class and good form on the surface but I think he'll need this one. French Beret is an interesting horse at an interesting price. He has not won a race in a very long time so it's hard to have any real confidence in him but he is as good as Sterwins on his best day and since his connections have taken to running him from the back he has been finishing with interest. He was flying in a 7.5f allowance last time out and passed the winner just after the wire. A repeat of that effort will have Sterwins backers searching for the wire. At his likely price of 12/1 or more French Beret is an excellent choice for the exotics and maybe just for an upset.
Sterwins
French Beret
San Pasqual Handicap
Not a great deal of intrigue in this race but perhaps there is some money waiting to be picked up. I had this race last weekend and of course it washed off so much of this analysis is a reprint. I thought a great deal of Molengao last year. I thought he had the talent to go on and thrust himself into the top tier of the older division. But unfortunately he was body sore by June and has been off ever since. Lobo has a very good record of bringing horses off a layoff and Molengao in particular has often done very well first time back. He is the horse to beat but he might have his hands full with Racketeer who is second off the shelf and looking sure to improve. Well Armed may try to steal this one on the front end but I think that if Molengao is in form he can run down any of these with ease. Since both Molengao and Racketeer will be short prices I'll just select Molengao and put most of my money on an exacta linking the two.
Molengao
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Last Years Form
The Kentucky Derby and the trail leading towards it is one of the most captivating aspects of this sport. Derby Fever as it's called grips just about everyone involved in racing from the hardened old fan to the small time trainer with a promising three year old.
One of the ways my Derby fever manifests itself is through statistics. I love to do is to compile statistics and specifically I have spent a good deal of time compiling statistics for the Derby and Breeders Cup. Not all statistics are relevant, not all statistics are useful but I think there is some value to be derived from using good statistics to help shape your view of a race. I don't think one should blindly rely on numbers but it can help you identify some false favorites or some intriguing longshots.
I have spent a great deal of time developing a statistical model for the Derby that combines what I believe to be 20 relevant factors. It's called the 20-20 system and last year in this space we took an in depth look at prior to the Derby. Unfortunately for the model's sake it had Scat Daddy as the primary selection. We all know how that turned out but it was a good reminder not to bank too heavily on just what the numbers say. Statistics can paint a lie and because of several unique factors last year (like the Bluegrass being run on Polytrack) it threw a few figures off.
Still I think the 20-20 is a system worth keeping, it still shows a flat bet profit of 25.9% and if you only took the perfect qualifiers you'd have made 382.17%. All that without doing any handicapping at all. Hopefully with a little good sense you could make it even better.
Every Wednesday from now until the Derby I'll pick one interesting statistic to highlight. The stat may or may not be part of the 20-20 system. Sometimes the best advice you can get is knowing which statistics to stay away from, because there are a lot of crazy ones out there, especially with the Derby.
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Let me start of this years statistical look with saying that I'm glad the Juvenile Jinx has been put to rest. There has never been any validity to it just like years ago people thought it was bad luck to be the favorite. It was simply a case of the wrong kind of horses winning the Juvenile. Street Sense was the first juvenile winner in a long time who had a legitimate chance in the Derby.
As we all start to compile our Top 10 lists we will most likely be picking through a list of accomplished 2yo's but there is always the temptation to toss in a name that perhaps no one else thought of. Often times those unknown underdogs failed to race as a 2yo. For whatever reason they got off to a late start but they appear to be very impressive so we keep close tabs on them.
Curlin was exactly that kind of horse last year. He burst onto the scene at Gulfstream as a 3yo and made a meteoric rise through the ranks. He ended up running a decent third in the Derby. So are unraced 2yo's a good group to keep an eye on?
Statistically Curlin would appear to be an exception to the rule. I think looking at what he went on to accomplish confirms the notion that indeed he was not an ordinary horse. Since 1955 44 3yo's have contested the Derby without having started at two and they achieved a Derby record of 44-0-1-2. Curlin, Strodes Creek and Agitate were the only exceptions. In recent times many of these horses looked quite promising like Pulpit, Greeley's Galaxy, Trippi and Showing Up but all of them found the Derby too tough at that stage in their careers. This one is not a myth or jinx folks. It takes an exceptional horse to go through the conditions and overcome the lack of foundation. The Derby is a very tough race and horses need all the experience and foundation they can get.
Also when considering horses who ran as 2yo's but failed to win be wary. The statistics do not suggest that it is impossible as Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos won the Derby without winning as 2yo's. But the cumulative record of such horses is 30-2-1-1. Some big name horses like Medaglia D'Oro, Crypto Star, Ten Most Wanted, Flower Alley, Bandini and Balto Star all failed to live up to the hype on Derby day.
One of the ways my Derby fever manifests itself is through statistics. I love to do is to compile statistics and specifically I have spent a good deal of time compiling statistics for the Derby and Breeders Cup. Not all statistics are relevant, not all statistics are useful but I think there is some value to be derived from using good statistics to help shape your view of a race. I don't think one should blindly rely on numbers but it can help you identify some false favorites or some intriguing longshots.
I have spent a great deal of time developing a statistical model for the Derby that combines what I believe to be 20 relevant factors. It's called the 20-20 system and last year in this space we took an in depth look at prior to the Derby. Unfortunately for the model's sake it had Scat Daddy as the primary selection. We all know how that turned out but it was a good reminder not to bank too heavily on just what the numbers say. Statistics can paint a lie and because of several unique factors last year (like the Bluegrass being run on Polytrack) it threw a few figures off.
Still I think the 20-20 is a system worth keeping, it still shows a flat bet profit of 25.9% and if you only took the perfect qualifiers you'd have made 382.17%. All that without doing any handicapping at all. Hopefully with a little good sense you could make it even better.
Every Wednesday from now until the Derby I'll pick one interesting statistic to highlight. The stat may or may not be part of the 20-20 system. Sometimes the best advice you can get is knowing which statistics to stay away from, because there are a lot of crazy ones out there, especially with the Derby.
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Let me start of this years statistical look with saying that I'm glad the Juvenile Jinx has been put to rest. There has never been any validity to it just like years ago people thought it was bad luck to be the favorite. It was simply a case of the wrong kind of horses winning the Juvenile. Street Sense was the first juvenile winner in a long time who had a legitimate chance in the Derby.
As we all start to compile our Top 10 lists we will most likely be picking through a list of accomplished 2yo's but there is always the temptation to toss in a name that perhaps no one else thought of. Often times those unknown underdogs failed to race as a 2yo. For whatever reason they got off to a late start but they appear to be very impressive so we keep close tabs on them.
Curlin was exactly that kind of horse last year. He burst onto the scene at Gulfstream as a 3yo and made a meteoric rise through the ranks. He ended up running a decent third in the Derby. So are unraced 2yo's a good group to keep an eye on?
Statistically Curlin would appear to be an exception to the rule. I think looking at what he went on to accomplish confirms the notion that indeed he was not an ordinary horse. Since 1955 44 3yo's have contested the Derby without having started at two and they achieved a Derby record of 44-0-1-2. Curlin, Strodes Creek and Agitate were the only exceptions. In recent times many of these horses looked quite promising like Pulpit, Greeley's Galaxy, Trippi and Showing Up but all of them found the Derby too tough at that stage in their careers. This one is not a myth or jinx folks. It takes an exceptional horse to go through the conditions and overcome the lack of foundation. The Derby is a very tough race and horses need all the experience and foundation they can get.
Also when considering horses who ran as 2yo's but failed to win be wary. The statistics do not suggest that it is impossible as Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos won the Derby without winning as 2yo's. But the cumulative record of such horses is 30-2-1-1. Some big name horses like Medaglia D'Oro, Crypto Star, Ten Most Wanted, Flower Alley, Bandini and Balto Star all failed to live up to the hype on Derby day.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
I posted my initial Derby Top 10 back in early December but now in the new year I'll be updating the Top 10 every week until the Kentucky Derby itself. I have had the eventual Derby winner in my first January Top 10 for the past two years. Hopefully he (or she) is mentioned here for the third year in a row. The Top 10 will be listed on the sidebar as well. The number in brackets is the horses ranking from the previous Top 10 list.
Derby Top 10 - January 8th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (new)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
War Pass remains my top Derby horse and will likely stay there unless I see something fantastic from another contender. He is undefeated and despite his penchant for early speed I think he's live and dangerous for the Derby. Colonel John had his chance to impress and perhaps topple War Pass but he didn't quite take that chance. He did not run poorly in the Hollywood Futurity but he didn't shoot the lights out either and he is vulnerable in the #2 spot. Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Court Vision are also unchanged. None of them did anything of note recently but the class and talent they showed as 2yo's makes them benchmarks for the division and they'll likely remain highly ranked until they give me a reason to drop them. Into Mischief was pretty impressive when taking the Hollywood Futurity over Colonel John and Massive Drama. I love the fact that he's got speed going two turns but he's able to throttle back the speed a bit. This will see him get first run on most of his opponents on the Triple Crown trail. I also love the fact that he's trained by Mandella. There are few trainers that I have more faith in. Although he is not typically known as a Derby trainer I think he can prepare and campaign a horse as well as anyone in the nation. Kodiak Kowboy is questionable to stay 10f but he hangs around and he's got some class. I think he will be very tough all through the TC trail. Country Star made a huge splash with her win in the Hollywood Starlet. I was not quite sure how to rank her. Visually her Hollywood Starlet was better than Into Mischief's Futurity but I've ranked her lower to compensate for the real chance that she may not contest the Derby. Frankel has said the Oaks is her target so even putting her on this list at all means banking on him changing his mind. Riley Tucker is an oddball pick but he showed a lot of ability as a 2yo. His connections did not have him all straightened out so we didn't see his best before he got injured. He is back on the work tab now for Mott and I expect him to do quite well. Most people are tabbing Cowboy Cal as Pletcher's best 3yo right now but I think it's Monba, at least in terms of the main track. Cowboy Cal has been very impressive on the grass not actually as impressive as Barbaro was at that stage. He's good as a turf horse but he isn't exactly the best Turf juvenile we've seen in a decade. I prefer Monba who made a big late run in the Futurity and galloped out very strongly as well. Obviously he'll need to start getting into the race sooner but he's still green and I think he's got a decent future.
Dropped: Cave's Valley (6) - His performance in the Delta Jackpot was not horrendous and I would be open to including him in the Top 10 again if he rebounds well in his next race but I suspect that he will not be pointed to the Derby. Most likely he'll have a nice career contesting listed stakes at Laurel and Delaware.
Majestic Warrior (8) - Still no workouts, I can't keep him on the Top 10 when he's still injured. Derby winners pretty much have to be working out at this stage.
Wise Answer (9) - Got a great form reference from Smooth Air but ran flatly in a turf race. I don't hold the Turf race against him that much so I left him on the radar. But my main question is, why was he in the Turf race to being with? It may signal that his connections don't really think he is good enough to leave Calder and win, or that they simply don't know how to campaign a Derby horse. In any event he's got to run well on the main track to get back in my good graces.
On the radar: Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer (9), Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal
Derby Top 10 - January 8th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (new)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (new)
9. Riley Tucker (10)
10. Monba (new)
War Pass remains my top Derby horse and will likely stay there unless I see something fantastic from another contender. He is undefeated and despite his penchant for early speed I think he's live and dangerous for the Derby. Colonel John had his chance to impress and perhaps topple War Pass but he didn't quite take that chance. He did not run poorly in the Hollywood Futurity but he didn't shoot the lights out either and he is vulnerable in the #2 spot. Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Court Vision are also unchanged. None of them did anything of note recently but the class and talent they showed as 2yo's makes them benchmarks for the division and they'll likely remain highly ranked until they give me a reason to drop them. Into Mischief was pretty impressive when taking the Hollywood Futurity over Colonel John and Massive Drama. I love the fact that he's got speed going two turns but he's able to throttle back the speed a bit. This will see him get first run on most of his opponents on the Triple Crown trail. I also love the fact that he's trained by Mandella. There are few trainers that I have more faith in. Although he is not typically known as a Derby trainer I think he can prepare and campaign a horse as well as anyone in the nation. Kodiak Kowboy is questionable to stay 10f but he hangs around and he's got some class. I think he will be very tough all through the TC trail. Country Star made a huge splash with her win in the Hollywood Starlet. I was not quite sure how to rank her. Visually her Hollywood Starlet was better than Into Mischief's Futurity but I've ranked her lower to compensate for the real chance that she may not contest the Derby. Frankel has said the Oaks is her target so even putting her on this list at all means banking on him changing his mind. Riley Tucker is an oddball pick but he showed a lot of ability as a 2yo. His connections did not have him all straightened out so we didn't see his best before he got injured. He is back on the work tab now for Mott and I expect him to do quite well. Most people are tabbing Cowboy Cal as Pletcher's best 3yo right now but I think it's Monba, at least in terms of the main track. Cowboy Cal has been very impressive on the grass not actually as impressive as Barbaro was at that stage. He's good as a turf horse but he isn't exactly the best Turf juvenile we've seen in a decade. I prefer Monba who made a big late run in the Futurity and galloped out very strongly as well. Obviously he'll need to start getting into the race sooner but he's still green and I think he's got a decent future.
Dropped: Cave's Valley (6) - His performance in the Delta Jackpot was not horrendous and I would be open to including him in the Top 10 again if he rebounds well in his next race but I suspect that he will not be pointed to the Derby. Most likely he'll have a nice career contesting listed stakes at Laurel and Delaware.
Majestic Warrior (8) - Still no workouts, I can't keep him on the Top 10 when he's still injured. Derby winners pretty much have to be working out at this stage.
Wise Answer (9) - Got a great form reference from Smooth Air but ran flatly in a turf race. I don't hold the Turf race against him that much so I left him on the radar. But my main question is, why was he in the Turf race to being with? It may signal that his connections don't really think he is good enough to leave Calder and win, or that they simply don't know how to campaign a Derby horse. In any event he's got to run well on the main track to get back in my good graces.
On the radar: Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer (9), Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal
Monday, January 07, 2008
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: Frank Stronach may have attracted the ire of faithful racing fans for his renovation of Gulfstream Park's grandstand but I think few would complain with the quality of racing seen at his track. Especially over this weekend. We were treated to 5 quality stakes races and although it was the only action of note this weekend it was certainly worth tuning in for.
Performance of the Week: It really is a shame that Chatain was not around for the BC Dirt Mile because this horse excels at the distance. He won the Hal's Hope again in fine style. He settled nicely in the early going and made a move on the turn. After seeing him move up to the leaders I wondered how much he'd have left for the stretch drive but he moved by them so easily I barely had time to process the thought. Chatain is probably as good as anyone in a one turn mile. I would love to see him take on the Met Mile this year.
Race of the Week: Lady Marlboro's duel with Golden Velvet almost earned her Performance of the Week as well as a highlight in this space. The Sabin Handicap was a thrilling contest to say the least. Lady Marlboro and Mini Sermon contested the pace from the outset and Golden Velvet sat very nicely in behind much like Noonmark did in the Mr Prospector. Around the far turn Mini Sermon seemed to put Lady Marlboro away and Golden Velvet swung out and began to menace. As Golden Velvet was grinding down the favorite on the outside Lady Marlboro got her second wind and came through a very tight gap on the rail. The tightness of the gap seemed to slow her run a bit and she just got even Golden Velvet in the last jump. A dead heat was the official result but it seemed a little cruel to Lady Marlboro who overcame quite a bit.
Flop of the Weekend: No question that the biggest disappointment of the weekend was Santa Anita's inability to card a single race. I am not intimately involved in the process so I will not cast blame on a certain person or group but collectively all parties involved in this debacle get a big thumbs down.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The 2008 standings are still in their infancy since so few Graded races have been run. The 2008 standings will not be posted on the main page of this blog until after the Sunshine Millions. For the month of January we will continue to focus on the TCR Awards. We still need your votes so follow the link and cast your ballot!
Tip O’the Cap: I think Tom Albertrani deserves a special mention for his work with Host. The 8 year old is far from a frequent winner and he seemed to go stale under the care of Pletcher. But Albertrani has him back to his best and quietly has one of the best winning percentages in Graded Stakes of any trainer over the last few years. He's won a cool 27% which approaches super trainer status but obviously aside from Bernardini he's had a lot fewer stars than guys like Pletcher, Asmussen and Baffert.
KC Handicapping: Santa Anita obviously did not run any races so the wager on Molengao is refunded. We'll keep an eye out for when that field is reassembled. Thorn Song looked pretty bad in the Canadian Turf. We will take a hands off approach until an excuse is found or until he shows some life. He sat well off a fast pace but had no kick when the running began. The Mr Prospector ended up finishing exactly as I predicted in option 2. Keyed Entry is not back for real and he faded badly. Noonmark was perfectly placed and won with a touch of ease I'd say. That was more due to the tactics than actual dominance but his result turns us a nice profit for the week.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-1-0-0 (+$6.60 +110.00% ROI)
Overall record: 445(206)-81-74-66 (-$50.00 -5.62% ROI)
Performance of the Week: It really is a shame that Chatain was not around for the BC Dirt Mile because this horse excels at the distance. He won the Hal's Hope again in fine style. He settled nicely in the early going and made a move on the turn. After seeing him move up to the leaders I wondered how much he'd have left for the stretch drive but he moved by them so easily I barely had time to process the thought. Chatain is probably as good as anyone in a one turn mile. I would love to see him take on the Met Mile this year.
Race of the Week: Lady Marlboro's duel with Golden Velvet almost earned her Performance of the Week as well as a highlight in this space. The Sabin Handicap was a thrilling contest to say the least. Lady Marlboro and Mini Sermon contested the pace from the outset and Golden Velvet sat very nicely in behind much like Noonmark did in the Mr Prospector. Around the far turn Mini Sermon seemed to put Lady Marlboro away and Golden Velvet swung out and began to menace. As Golden Velvet was grinding down the favorite on the outside Lady Marlboro got her second wind and came through a very tight gap on the rail. The tightness of the gap seemed to slow her run a bit and she just got even Golden Velvet in the last jump. A dead heat was the official result but it seemed a little cruel to Lady Marlboro who overcame quite a bit.
Flop of the Weekend: No question that the biggest disappointment of the weekend was Santa Anita's inability to card a single race. I am not intimately involved in the process so I will not cast blame on a certain person or group but collectively all parties involved in this debacle get a big thumbs down.
TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The 2008 standings are still in their infancy since so few Graded races have been run. The 2008 standings will not be posted on the main page of this blog until after the Sunshine Millions. For the month of January we will continue to focus on the TCR Awards. We still need your votes so follow the link and cast your ballot!
Tip O’the Cap: I think Tom Albertrani deserves a special mention for his work with Host. The 8 year old is far from a frequent winner and he seemed to go stale under the care of Pletcher. But Albertrani has him back to his best and quietly has one of the best winning percentages in Graded Stakes of any trainer over the last few years. He's won a cool 27% which approaches super trainer status but obviously aside from Bernardini he's had a lot fewer stars than guys like Pletcher, Asmussen and Baffert.
KC Handicapping: Santa Anita obviously did not run any races so the wager on Molengao is refunded. We'll keep an eye out for when that field is reassembled. Thorn Song looked pretty bad in the Canadian Turf. We will take a hands off approach until an excuse is found or until he shows some life. He sat well off a fast pace but had no kick when the running began. The Mr Prospector ended up finishing exactly as I predicted in option 2. Keyed Entry is not back for real and he faded badly. Noonmark was perfectly placed and won with a touch of ease I'd say. That was more due to the tactics than actual dominance but his result turns us a nice profit for the week.
Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-1-0-0 (+$6.60 +110.00% ROI)
Overall record: 445(206)-81-74-66 (-$50.00 -5.62% ROI)
Friday, January 04, 2008
Weekend Picks and Analysis
Canadian Turf Handicap
Going back to the well for another shot at Thorn Song. He has become one of my favorite horses to back because he is almost always well spotted and the prices are usually very good. He should be the first or second choice here but that should still mean 3/1 or more. In my opinion that's a very good price for a horse who has really come into his own. Last time out he was a bit rank and went very wide on both turns despite no one really to his inside. He still managed to run down the classy Cosmonaut and I think it was just a case of him feeling very good and wanting to get right to the front. He had a nice work a few days back and should continue to improve. I like that his connections have been rating him in his last few. Although he fought against it a little last time, it will serve him well as the company gets tougher. This race has a lot of speed but I think Gulfstream favors those who are near the front. I think Host is terrible value at 3/1. His form is good enough but now he's 8 years old and he loses far more than he wins. If I'm going to back a old frequent loser I'd take Dreadnaught. Much better price and similar prospects. He should be well suited by the cutback in distance and getting blinkers back on could shake him up. I'll use him underneath Thorn Song for sure. I also like Big Prairie and Kiss the Kid as alternatives. Big Prairie is another closer who could benefit from a pace collapse and Kiss The Kid has the same style as Thorn Song. Good tactical speed, can lead them all the way or stalk closely. I think Kiss The Kid is going to keep on improving this year and maybe win himself a graded stake. But this race it's all about Thorn Song. He's fast, he's tough, he's consistent and he absolutely loves the grass.
Thorn Song
San Pasqual Handicap
This is a two horse race and hopefully it doesn't get cancelled by the drainage issues at Santa Anita. Molengao is a horse in search of his former form and Racketeer finally looks ready to confirm his promise. I thought a great deal of Molengao last year. I thought he had the talent to go on and thrust himself into the top tier of the older division. But unfortunately he was body sore by June and has been off ever since. Lobo has a very good record of bringing horses off a layoff and Molengao in particular has often done very well first time back. He is the horse to beat but he might have his hands full with Racketeer who is second off the shelf and looking sure to improve. Well Armed may try to steal this one on the front end but I think that if Molengao is in form he can run down any of these with ease. Since both Molengao and Racketeer will be short prices I'll just select Molengao and put most of my money on an exacta linking the two.
Molengao
Mr. Prospector Handicap
A very interesting contest with a lot of different angles. I have great respect for the talent of Keyed Entry and his is the first name that jumps off the page. He's got the highest figures and is undefeated on the track. But do we trust him off of those two horrendous finishes? There was clearly something amiss with him and there have been different reports about what his problems were. But for us we have to decide whether we think he is fit mentally and physically. He gets blinkers which is an interesting addition. My judgement is that he is too good to leave off. There is significant other speed in here but he is the speed of the speed and if he comes to run I don't think they'll catch him. But one has to respect the fact that Finallymadeit and Mach Ride are very quick horses themselves and the most likely scenario after a Keyed Entry tour de force is a pace meltdown. Roi Maudit, Noonmark and Grand Champion are essentially equals in terms of ability and running style. They will try to stalk the pace and be right in behind the speed as they turn for home. I have a slight preference for Noonmark. Roi Maudit is trying this class for the first time and I wasn't thrilled with the competition, nor the way he beat them, in his last. I'm not sure he'll step up. Grand Champion is a good horse but I fear not quite fast enough to tangle with the likes of Keyed Entry and Mach Ride. I would use him for second or third but no higher. Noonmark has always been a good horse but for most of his career he's been a loser. He routinely lost races he should have won. But his last race looked like a breakout performance. For the first time in eight races he failed to lose ground in the stretch. Not only did he go by the leaders when asked but he also drew away. He has every chance to repeat the feat here.
Noonmark
Keyed Entry
Going back to the well for another shot at Thorn Song. He has become one of my favorite horses to back because he is almost always well spotted and the prices are usually very good. He should be the first or second choice here but that should still mean 3/1 or more. In my opinion that's a very good price for a horse who has really come into his own. Last time out he was a bit rank and went very wide on both turns despite no one really to his inside. He still managed to run down the classy Cosmonaut and I think it was just a case of him feeling very good and wanting to get right to the front. He had a nice work a few days back and should continue to improve. I like that his connections have been rating him in his last few. Although he fought against it a little last time, it will serve him well as the company gets tougher. This race has a lot of speed but I think Gulfstream favors those who are near the front. I think Host is terrible value at 3/1. His form is good enough but now he's 8 years old and he loses far more than he wins. If I'm going to back a old frequent loser I'd take Dreadnaught. Much better price and similar prospects. He should be well suited by the cutback in distance and getting blinkers back on could shake him up. I'll use him underneath Thorn Song for sure. I also like Big Prairie and Kiss the Kid as alternatives. Big Prairie is another closer who could benefit from a pace collapse and Kiss The Kid has the same style as Thorn Song. Good tactical speed, can lead them all the way or stalk closely. I think Kiss The Kid is going to keep on improving this year and maybe win himself a graded stake. But this race it's all about Thorn Song. He's fast, he's tough, he's consistent and he absolutely loves the grass.
Thorn Song
San Pasqual Handicap
This is a two horse race and hopefully it doesn't get cancelled by the drainage issues at Santa Anita. Molengao is a horse in search of his former form and Racketeer finally looks ready to confirm his promise. I thought a great deal of Molengao last year. I thought he had the talent to go on and thrust himself into the top tier of the older division. But unfortunately he was body sore by June and has been off ever since. Lobo has a very good record of bringing horses off a layoff and Molengao in particular has often done very well first time back. He is the horse to beat but he might have his hands full with Racketeer who is second off the shelf and looking sure to improve. Well Armed may try to steal this one on the front end but I think that if Molengao is in form he can run down any of these with ease. Since both Molengao and Racketeer will be short prices I'll just select Molengao and put most of my money on an exacta linking the two.
Molengao
Mr. Prospector Handicap
A very interesting contest with a lot of different angles. I have great respect for the talent of Keyed Entry and his is the first name that jumps off the page. He's got the highest figures and is undefeated on the track. But do we trust him off of those two horrendous finishes? There was clearly something amiss with him and there have been different reports about what his problems were. But for us we have to decide whether we think he is fit mentally and physically. He gets blinkers which is an interesting addition. My judgement is that he is too good to leave off. There is significant other speed in here but he is the speed of the speed and if he comes to run I don't think they'll catch him. But one has to respect the fact that Finallymadeit and Mach Ride are very quick horses themselves and the most likely scenario after a Keyed Entry tour de force is a pace meltdown. Roi Maudit, Noonmark and Grand Champion are essentially equals in terms of ability and running style. They will try to stalk the pace and be right in behind the speed as they turn for home. I have a slight preference for Noonmark. Roi Maudit is trying this class for the first time and I wasn't thrilled with the competition, nor the way he beat them, in his last. I'm not sure he'll step up. Grand Champion is a good horse but I fear not quite fast enough to tangle with the likes of Keyed Entry and Mach Ride. I would use him for second or third but no higher. Noonmark has always been a good horse but for most of his career he's been a loser. He routinely lost races he should have won. But his last race looked like a breakout performance. For the first time in eight races he failed to lose ground in the stretch. Not only did he go by the leaders when asked but he also drew away. He has every chance to repeat the feat here.
Noonmark
Keyed Entry
Thursday, January 03, 2008
My Ballot
If you happened to miss my post from yesterday please visit this link to get apprised of the situation. Kennedy's Corridor is hosting the 2nd annual TCR Awards where the TCR points standings and your votes are combined to give us champions for the year. Unlike the Eclipse Awards these have a greater focus on accomplishments, well defined guidelines and of course fans are allowed to vote.
A few votes have trickled in but I thought I'd post my ballot as well as some of my thoughts and reasoning. You may or may not agree but feel free to chime in with a ballot of your own as well as some thoughts on the various divisions.
Horse of the Year
Curlin
English Channel
Street Sense
Ginger Punch
Hard Spun
This is basically the same order that the TCR points system had them ranked aside from Hard Spun over Ginger Punch. I think the greatest strength of the TCR is how it accurately ranks different horses from different divisions overall. Curlin is clearly Horse Of The Year and in my opinion English Channel was a clear second thanks to Street Sense's inability to hit the board on BC day. Hard Spun won the majority of his points and popularity for losing performances, he did have a great year but Ginger Punch deserves to be ranked ahead of him in my opinion.
Older Male (Dirt & All Weather)
Lawyer Ron
Midnight Lute
Lava Man
Awesome Gem
Student Council
This division was in shambles. Lawyer Ron is a slight choice over Midnight Lute for me. Invasor ran only twice and had enough points to be a finalist but he did not make the 3 starts minimum. Midnight Lute blew his chance to sweep this division as well as the Sprinter division when he lost the Cigar Mile. No one else stepped up and came fro Lawyer Ron. Corinthian missed out making it as a finalist largely due to the fact that the BC Dirt Mile was left ungraded by the AGSC. Still he wouldn't have made an impact anyway.
Older Female (Dirt & All Weather)
Ginger Punch
Hystericalady
Nashoba's Key
Miss Shop
Balance
Ginger Punch is a no-brainer, Hystericalady had her shot when she drew alongside in the BC Distaff but she couldn't get by that day and she fails to do so in the court of my opinion as well. Nashoba's Key didn't run enough on the main track and having never run on conventional dirt it was hard to rank her above the top two listed here. Balance and Miss Shop were both weak finalists in a division that took quite a long time for any shape to emerge.
Turf Male
English Channel
Kip Deville
After Market
Cloudy's Knight
Nobiz Like Showbiz
I have a soft spot for the old warrior Cloudy's Knight but I think the TCR had these Turf horses ranked just right. Tough luck for Jambalaya not to be included but he got injured at a bad time. Doctor Dino also would have been a finalist with one more American start. English Channel is a deserving winner though and was in my opinion the second best horse overall in 2007.
Turf Female
Precious Kitten
Lahudood
Nashoba's Key
Citronnade
Honey Ryder
I voted for Precious Kitten. She was narrowly the highest ranked horse with the points system but more than that she exemplified what I like to see in a champion. She raced 9 times on 6 tracks in 5 different states and was no worse than second in any race aside from the BC where she was taken to the outside rail by Simply Perfect. She won a pair of G-1's and faced all the principles of this division. She was by no means dominant but she was consistent, well campaigned and the most accomplished in the division. BC FM Turf winner Lahudood will take a ton of votes based on the way she finished the year but is a 5-3-1-0 season with 2 G-1 wins really enough? The point system didn't think so and had her ranked 4th. I personally thought that Lahudood deserved to be second ranked but not first. She actually accomplished more than Nashoba's Key did on the grass as many of Nashoba's points came on all weather surfaces. And her pair of G-1 wins easily overshadows what Citronnade was able to do. The biggest problem with Citronnade is that all of her wins came in the same form. She was the lone speed on a firm Californian track. She took only 1 G-1 race and while she did beat Price Tag and Vacare in that one her 4 G-2 wins were basically against nobodies. Honey Ryder does not have much of a shout to win this division in my opinion. You have to win more than just a single G-2 event to be a champ. She had 3 excellent runner up finishes but that's not enough.
Sprinter (All Surfaces)
Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Greg's Gold
Smokey Stover
Kelly's Landing
Midnight Lute wins in a walk over Idiot Proof in a finish reminiscent of the BC Sprint itself. The Lute was in another zone and nearly managed to take the top Older Male title. Talent Search earned enough TCR points to be a finalist but he failed to win a Graded Stakes so he misses out.
Female Sprinter (All Surfaces)
River's Prayer
Maryfield
Dream Rush
Pussycat Doll
Oprah Winney
River's Prayer was my top selection in the Female Sprinter division. I think she's being extremely undervalued. So much focus is going to Maryfield for her win in the BC FM Sprint but that race was not even given G-1 status and it was run in a horrendous slop. The only other races she competed in with credit was a G-2 on the Aqueduct inner and the Ballerina. One could argue that the Test was actually a tougher race than the Ballerina, if you use the form line through Baroness Thatcher. River's Prayer on the other hand won the same amount of G-1's, more graded stakes and she won the only head to head meeting with Maryfield. She was never beaten in 2007. She raced on 4 tracks and won on all three different surfaces. Injury denied her a shot at the BC but the balance of the rest of her campaign gives her the edge in my opinion. Dream Rush is the only other one with significant claims at the title. It's a shame that her only try against older mares came in the slop on BC Friday. I think she is much better than that race showed but it's tough to give her an award without even an open stakes placing when you have River's Prayer and Maryfield as alternatives. I think Dream Rush is the best horse of the three but she just didn't do quite enough to win this award.
3yo Male (All Surfaces)
Curlin
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Showbiz
Tiago
There was so much intrigue in this division all year long that it's almost shocking how straightforward the voting is once the year has ended. The BC Classic decided it all and Curlin was clearly the best. Although Hard Spun did beat Street Sense in his last two races Street Sense won the Derby and Travers while Hard Spun won the Kings Bishop and KY Cup Classic. This was the strongest 3yo crop in recent memory as Any Given Saturday, Daaher, Daytona, Red Giant and Idiot Proof all failed to make it as finalists.
3yo Female (All Surfaces)
Rags To Riches
Octave
Lady Joanne
Panty Raid
Dream Rush
This division was done and dusted in June. Rags To Riches became a star and her accomplishments in the first half of the year were so vast she was actually the #1 ranked horse overall for a few months. Injury prevented her from challenging for that title in earnest but she easily wins this one. Octave like always runs second to her. I voted for Lady Joanne above Panty Raid despite the Spinster stakes that saw the order reversed. I thought Lady Joanne overall had a more consistent campaign.
2yo Male (All Surfaces)
War Pass
Kodiak Kowboy
Salute The Sarge
Into Mischief
Wicked Style
War Pass canters out an easy winner. Pyro is a notable absentee from the finalists list. He did have enough points to be a finalist but never managed to win a stakes race so he failed to qualify. Kodiak Kowboy is a clear second. War Pass ought to be unanimous.
2yo Female (All Surfaces)
Indian Blessing
Country Star
Proud Spell
Pure Clan
Rated Fiesty
Not much to say here. I think this is order is basically without controversy. Rated Fiesty is likely viewed by some as an odd ball finalist but she was undefeated and looked extremely good in those races. We just find it hard to remember 2yo's that did not last the summer.
A few votes have trickled in but I thought I'd post my ballot as well as some of my thoughts and reasoning. You may or may not agree but feel free to chime in with a ballot of your own as well as some thoughts on the various divisions.
Horse of the Year
Curlin
English Channel
Street Sense
Ginger Punch
Hard Spun
This is basically the same order that the TCR points system had them ranked aside from Hard Spun over Ginger Punch. I think the greatest strength of the TCR is how it accurately ranks different horses from different divisions overall. Curlin is clearly Horse Of The Year and in my opinion English Channel was a clear second thanks to Street Sense's inability to hit the board on BC day. Hard Spun won the majority of his points and popularity for losing performances, he did have a great year but Ginger Punch deserves to be ranked ahead of him in my opinion.
Older Male (Dirt & All Weather)
Lawyer Ron
Midnight Lute
Lava Man
Awesome Gem
Student Council
This division was in shambles. Lawyer Ron is a slight choice over Midnight Lute for me. Invasor ran only twice and had enough points to be a finalist but he did not make the 3 starts minimum. Midnight Lute blew his chance to sweep this division as well as the Sprinter division when he lost the Cigar Mile. No one else stepped up and came fro Lawyer Ron. Corinthian missed out making it as a finalist largely due to the fact that the BC Dirt Mile was left ungraded by the AGSC. Still he wouldn't have made an impact anyway.
Older Female (Dirt & All Weather)
Ginger Punch
Hystericalady
Nashoba's Key
Miss Shop
Balance
Ginger Punch is a no-brainer, Hystericalady had her shot when she drew alongside in the BC Distaff but she couldn't get by that day and she fails to do so in the court of my opinion as well. Nashoba's Key didn't run enough on the main track and having never run on conventional dirt it was hard to rank her above the top two listed here. Balance and Miss Shop were both weak finalists in a division that took quite a long time for any shape to emerge.
Turf Male
English Channel
Kip Deville
After Market
Cloudy's Knight
Nobiz Like Showbiz
I have a soft spot for the old warrior Cloudy's Knight but I think the TCR had these Turf horses ranked just right. Tough luck for Jambalaya not to be included but he got injured at a bad time. Doctor Dino also would have been a finalist with one more American start. English Channel is a deserving winner though and was in my opinion the second best horse overall in 2007.
Turf Female
Precious Kitten
Lahudood
Nashoba's Key
Citronnade
Honey Ryder
I voted for Precious Kitten. She was narrowly the highest ranked horse with the points system but more than that she exemplified what I like to see in a champion. She raced 9 times on 6 tracks in 5 different states and was no worse than second in any race aside from the BC where she was taken to the outside rail by Simply Perfect. She won a pair of G-1's and faced all the principles of this division. She was by no means dominant but she was consistent, well campaigned and the most accomplished in the division. BC FM Turf winner Lahudood will take a ton of votes based on the way she finished the year but is a 5-3-1-0 season with 2 G-1 wins really enough? The point system didn't think so and had her ranked 4th. I personally thought that Lahudood deserved to be second ranked but not first. She actually accomplished more than Nashoba's Key did on the grass as many of Nashoba's points came on all weather surfaces. And her pair of G-1 wins easily overshadows what Citronnade was able to do. The biggest problem with Citronnade is that all of her wins came in the same form. She was the lone speed on a firm Californian track. She took only 1 G-1 race and while she did beat Price Tag and Vacare in that one her 4 G-2 wins were basically against nobodies. Honey Ryder does not have much of a shout to win this division in my opinion. You have to win more than just a single G-2 event to be a champ. She had 3 excellent runner up finishes but that's not enough.
Sprinter (All Surfaces)
Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Greg's Gold
Smokey Stover
Kelly's Landing
Midnight Lute wins in a walk over Idiot Proof in a finish reminiscent of the BC Sprint itself. The Lute was in another zone and nearly managed to take the top Older Male title. Talent Search earned enough TCR points to be a finalist but he failed to win a Graded Stakes so he misses out.
Female Sprinter (All Surfaces)
River's Prayer
Maryfield
Dream Rush
Pussycat Doll
Oprah Winney
River's Prayer was my top selection in the Female Sprinter division. I think she's being extremely undervalued. So much focus is going to Maryfield for her win in the BC FM Sprint but that race was not even given G-1 status and it was run in a horrendous slop. The only other races she competed in with credit was a G-2 on the Aqueduct inner and the Ballerina. One could argue that the Test was actually a tougher race than the Ballerina, if you use the form line through Baroness Thatcher. River's Prayer on the other hand won the same amount of G-1's, more graded stakes and she won the only head to head meeting with Maryfield. She was never beaten in 2007. She raced on 4 tracks and won on all three different surfaces. Injury denied her a shot at the BC but the balance of the rest of her campaign gives her the edge in my opinion. Dream Rush is the only other one with significant claims at the title. It's a shame that her only try against older mares came in the slop on BC Friday. I think she is much better than that race showed but it's tough to give her an award without even an open stakes placing when you have River's Prayer and Maryfield as alternatives. I think Dream Rush is the best horse of the three but she just didn't do quite enough to win this award.
3yo Male (All Surfaces)
Curlin
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Showbiz
Tiago
There was so much intrigue in this division all year long that it's almost shocking how straightforward the voting is once the year has ended. The BC Classic decided it all and Curlin was clearly the best. Although Hard Spun did beat Street Sense in his last two races Street Sense won the Derby and Travers while Hard Spun won the Kings Bishop and KY Cup Classic. This was the strongest 3yo crop in recent memory as Any Given Saturday, Daaher, Daytona, Red Giant and Idiot Proof all failed to make it as finalists.
3yo Female (All Surfaces)
Rags To Riches
Octave
Lady Joanne
Panty Raid
Dream Rush
This division was done and dusted in June. Rags To Riches became a star and her accomplishments in the first half of the year were so vast she was actually the #1 ranked horse overall for a few months. Injury prevented her from challenging for that title in earnest but she easily wins this one. Octave like always runs second to her. I voted for Lady Joanne above Panty Raid despite the Spinster stakes that saw the order reversed. I thought Lady Joanne overall had a more consistent campaign.
2yo Male (All Surfaces)
War Pass
Kodiak Kowboy
Salute The Sarge
Into Mischief
Wicked Style
War Pass canters out an easy winner. Pyro is a notable absentee from the finalists list. He did have enough points to be a finalist but never managed to win a stakes race so he failed to qualify. Kodiak Kowboy is a clear second. War Pass ought to be unanimous.
2yo Female (All Surfaces)
Indian Blessing
Country Star
Proud Spell
Pure Clan
Rated Fiesty
Not much to say here. I think this is order is basically without controversy. Rated Fiesty is likely viewed by some as an odd ball finalist but she was undefeated and looked extremely good in those races. We just find it hard to remember 2yo's that did not last the summer.
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