Thursday, June 14, 2007

A Look Back Down The Corridor

The racing world is still preoccupied with Rags To Riches, Curlin and the Triple Crown as a whole. I suppose they have every right to be enamored but as for myself I can't get excited about posting on the same subject every single day.

The weekend will bring some fantastic racing with it, I am already perusing the stakes at Colonial and Churchill looking for some prime plays. But that is reserved for tomorrow and today I seem to have writers block. Or perhaps the fact that I am not a writer has finally come to bear.

The best I could come up with is a compilation of the best of Kennedy's Corridor. Corridor's can be beautiful and inspiring or they can be dark and dirty. A look back will perhaps help us decide which category this particular Corridor fits into.

This is the 229th entry in this blog that was started October 2nd, 2006.

The main features of this site have always been handicapping, statistics and the point standings system known as the TCR (Thoroughbred Championship Rankings) along with the occasional weigh in on the hot topics at hand.

Handicapping at Kennedy's Corridor usually takes a "weekend warrior" sort of form. Selections are made for certain stakes where we feel there is an edge. Often multiple horse are selected for a single race. That is because we select the horses at least one day prior to the race itself so things like scratches can't be taken into account. But also because sometimes it is worth it to take several horses in one race. Players who use multi race exotics such as Pick 3's or Pick 4's will often "go deep" in one or more legs. Kennedy's Corridor does not try to give wagering advice, we just try to identify the key horses in the races we highlight.

Unlike other online portals, including the major sites like the DRF. We keep score of the picks in print. Overall there have been 254 horses selected in 100 races on this blog they have a cumulative record of 254(100)-49-39-39. That means we highlight the winner in 49% of the races we handicap with an average of 2.54 horses selected per race. Of those 254 horses exactly 50% of them have run in the top 3. If you had wagered $2 on each of those horses to win, a $508 investment, you would have got back $507.70. A total loss of just 30 cents. Why are we excited about an overall losing record? Because it's extremely difficult to prevent losing 20% of your money when handicapping like this. The reason other sites do not post their results is because it usually isn't pretty and they don't want to lose readers by letting them in on the truth.

Perhaps the most popular thing this blog has ever done is produce the Derby 20-20 angle. It was a statistical look at the Derby that produced some decent results. Of course not in this year specifically, that would have been asking too much! Below are the links to the posts that explained the system and showed the results.

Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Derby 20-20 results

A little known fact is that long before the advent of Derby statistics on this site my main focus was Breeders Cup statistics. I have actually been working on "20-20 like" systems for each Breeders Cup race. I rushed to have a system ready in time for last years BC but it was not very solid and the selections from that system went a pitiful 15-1-4-3 on BC day. Still there was some wisdom to be gleaned from the statistics and my hope is to have it ready to go for this years BC.

Here were some other BC related statistics.

Bomb Squad Anatomy - Looks at the best way to catch 20/1 shots in the BC
Longshots Last Time Out - Scroll to the bottom of the post to find the info
Breeders Cup on the Bounce - Looks at horses who lost their last prep race as the favorite
Where Stars Collide - A peek at Saratoga and Del Mar's impact on the BC
Don't Play Favorites in the Breeders Cup? - Finding value with favorites

Point Standings
Here is a brief explanation of the standings and how they work and you can also view the full results for 2007 all the way back to 1999. We feel these are far and away the best point standings published anywhere on the Internet. They are relevant in real time, we don't have to wait until the end of the year for the "cream to rise" and unlike other systems you can compare horses from each division on the same scale. Is a 3 time G-1 winning 3yo filly really as good as as a 3 time G-1 winning older horse? Not in the TCR they aren't.

The goal of the TCR is to show that point systems can be relevant and would bring shape and order to the entire season. Our idea is not to use them to solely determine the year end championships. Ideally the TCR would be used in conjunction with voting, 50% weight given to each for a perfect blend of accomplishments and popular opinion.

In January we conducted the first annual TCR awards . Although the results did not match the Eclipse Awards directly I think they were actually better. Street Sense missed out on a championship but only because of low voter turnout and The Tin Man was rightfully crowned as the Top Turf Male.

The TCR can also be used internationally so we played around with the numbers for the Canadian and European racing seasons and commented on how the results stacked up.

Cartier Awards
Sovereign Awards

Random commentaries
Here are some of my personal favorite posts on a variety of subjects

Winning - Losing The Attitude
Seasons of Racing
Making The Grade
Modern Training
Hall of Fame
Betting Basics
Successful Racing Blueprint - Less Is More


JC said...

Interesting how you wrote about your selection results today as just last night I passed on a recommendation to a former radio host of a horseracing show that you are one of a few who validates your selections which is so unlike many other so called hadicappers that give four selections and then construe winning bets after the races are run.
Your writings are appreciated in this room that is connected to your corridor.
JC Kincardine Ontario

Handride said...

You know someone told me to check this out today, thanks for the anonymous swipe. For all those that don't know Kennedy is knocking the standings of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, check it out for up to date reports on the top horses in racing. I won't get into it here, but you can find out why the standings differ here and maybe realize that someone who reads their own posts might be a little too full of themselves. Kennedy the door is always open for you to join us, I do believe you have a great blog. I just think you need to get off your high horse a little.

Handride said...

i'd even be open to a modification of both of our standings to come up with something better.

Kennedy said...


I think anyone who objectively views the results produced by the TBA points system and compares them to the TCR would be in no doubt as to which one is better.

I have no problem with the TBA, I read the RSS feed everyday and in fact I read your blog especially, along with a few others. But I can't join if it means accepting those standings.

If you recall as well we had lengthy debates over the relative merits of our point systems and we agreed to disagree.

My conclusion was that you are more interested in activism than relevance. So I while I am open to discussing the marriage of the point systems again, I am not really optimistic.

If you are interested in talking about the subject again simply post on the Final Turn or Thoroughbred Champions message boards. I will find you there.