Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Derby Statistics Roundup

As regular readers might remember I have been providing statistics related to the Derby since the start of February. Some of them are meaningful, others not so meaningful but I think all of them are at least interesting.

For anyone who just maybe needs to refine their picks a bit or is at odds over who to select for that last spot in your trifecta perhaps some statistics mentioned here can give you some ideas, help you narrow it down or even just help you to think about the Derby in a way that you may not have before.

So here are the links to all the posts in my archive about Derby statistics.

Big Field Experience
Dosage and Dual Qualifiers
Two Turn Experience
Pre-Derby Starts
2yo to 3yo Improvement
Fast Enough?
Home Track Advantage
The Effects of Tough Races
A Review of Todd Pletcher's Derby Record
Tactical Speed
Getting the Last Furlong
Beyer Speed Figure Patterns
Equipment Changes
Pre-Derby Workouts

If you actually glean something useful from those posts you want to take another look at the Derby 20-20 system to see how many these statistical factors can be melded together to form a profile. Be sure to check out the full explanation of the Derby 20-20 system in the 3 parts linked here: (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3)

Again let me reiterate the reasons for doing this, as some commenters have suggested that I'm merely trying to point out every stat prior to the Derby so that after the Derby I can beat my own chest and say how I called it. My sole intent is to give everyone who reads this a better picture of how they could use statistics in handicapping. Perhaps get you to think outside the lines and hopefully sharpen you as a handicapper. Whether the statistics bear out this year or not I think it is a useful addition to any handicappers arsenal, because even identifying things that do not work is progress.


Hawken said...

I think the 20/20 is absolutely great, and I am very thankful that you were willing to share it with the public. It has definately caused me to revisit Great Hunter - who could possibly be the best value in the entire field when the bets are made. I know everyone was initially concerned about this being a paceless derby, but I am beginning to feel that 23,46,1:10 can be expected - setting up nicely for the 2nd and 3rd flight horses. Despite what his Jock said, GH looked like he had every chance to win or place in the Bluegrass before he was pulled up - I think most will just see the 5th place finish and toss him, but the race and the pace definately don't merit a toss in my opinion. I've always been an AGS fan, and if he sits back a bit further as planned - I think he has a nice shot as well. For the pressers, I think Scat Daddy is the only one with a legitimate shot to stay. First and foremost, he is a gamer and knows how to win. Second, he has possibly the best jock in the world on his back. Third, he has the best foundation and preparation of any horse in the field. For these reasons, he is also on my short list. The draw will certainly sort things out further. One other note: I've noted that Curlin is not the quickest out of the gate - if he isn't in the 5-10 range, I think his chances and running style are likely to be severely compromised.

Anonymous said...

i haven't come to terms yet about my picks for the derby/ first, i have not seen current daily racing form's PP's and won't until friday // i will probably settle on something late friday// also, at this point i have not seen the post position draw// i really like hawken's list and i have Noiz, AGS, and Scatt Daddy among my tentative top four// i am also high on Street Sense because of his accomplishments going back to the BC and what he has done since he arrived at churchill// my biggest concern, as noted by me several weeks ago and mentioned this week by Nafzger himself, SS is going to need to be inside and so i need to ponder that a bit// also, getting back to AGS, i think if you like AGS you have to like Street Sense a bit// i know a lot of folks don't look at it this way, but many times it works as a viable candidate goes under the radar and ends up winning at a good price// in my opinion, in the BC last year, if you liked some of the favorites then you should have liked SS too because he compared favorably in many respects with several of the starters in that race// i honestly believe No Biz is sitting on a big figure due to the normal progression in beyers of a quality colt// also, somehow, some way, as aggressive as Scat Daddy is right now, and how he was brought to the derby (20 points on the KC profile) and what he has accomplished this year, Scat Daddy will be among those at the wire// i have just this week taken to AGS/ as hawken noted, if he taken back a bit he has that fast steady turn of foot to get there/ i have know idea how AGS compares to Real Quite but he reminds me of him a lot/ / Real Quite just kept on a steady, consistent roll and finally put everyone away, save, i believe, the great closer Victory Gallop// I really haven't thought about GH yet, but i have been around long enough to see these Eddie Murphy (Trading Places) types, turn the tables on everyone he previously lost too last out// in any event, i do want to give GH a hard look /// in regard to Curlin, in my humble opinion, with out having looked at the Past Performances lately, i believe there is a strong possibility off his last two stakes races, his great acceleration, and the "it" factor, he could end up in the money// from what i have read, Curlin has demonstrated an 'i don't give a damn' attitude about all of the commotion around him this week// in my opinion he is the kind of colt that won't be intimidated one iota about the other colts around him either and i think he will prove that on derby day// to be sure i had not noticed Curlin's out of the gate speed and i am glad to be made aware of that fact// i have always thought of Curlin as a stalker along the lines of AGS// my guess is that these types have done well in the derby and i expect Curlin tom represent himself well// thanks for the forum to begin putting ones thought together a little bit// it gets more fun the closer we get to the derby// i have a lot more thinking to do about the others// chicago gerry

Anonymous said...

I definitely beat my chest when I pick the winner, that's what betting is all about, that and the $. I nailed War E, Monarchos, Smarty and Barbaro using a very similar system to yours, actually had Barbaro 1st, Steppen 3rd and BCat in all exotics last year after throwing out his last race.

You should be proud of your work.

I came up with Hard Spun, CowCat and Scat Daddy as my top 3 this year with Dominican in my exotics. Love the breeding of the top two. best of luck!